Had a chat with Italy. Long story short: i'm working with him.
Here were my options:
Working with Austria : Austria is being double-teamed by Russia/Italy, and will be knocked out soon. My one fleet isn't going to help him much.
Working with Russia: In the end, Russia won't want Turkey behind him ready to stab him at any moment, so he has a high chance of knocking me out after using me.
So what's left is Italy: Italy doesn't need the Turkish centres to win, and he needs my help in taking out Austria and Russia. He has the highest chance of letting me survive in the end.
Here were my options:
Working with Austria : Austria is being double-teamed by Russia/Italy, and will be knocked out soon. My one fleet isn't going to help him much.
Working with Russia: In the end, Russia won't want Turkey behind him ready to stab him at any moment, so he has a high chance of knocking me out after using me.
So what's left is Italy: Italy doesn't need the Turkish centres to win, and he needs my help in taking out Austria and Russia. He has the highest chance of letting me survive in the end.