Yes, this poll could be an outlier, but:
- Trump needs that poll to be very wrong to have a chance to win. Like if Iowa is +1 for Trump, then Ohio, Texas and Florida are still in play, and Harris is winning at least the Blue Wall.
- Trump has not had a good week, to put it mildly. This was in the field Monday-Thursday, so post-Madison Square Garden.
- Pollsters may be encouraging pro-Trump or "keep it close" results in intentional or unintentional ways (Nate Cohn gets at this in his article below, and NYT Times/Siena is a rather important poll). Iowa doesn't have much of a polling basis to compare to, and Trump +4 was Selzer's earlier result in Iowa.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/02/upsho...ction.html
- Trump needs that poll to be very wrong to have a chance to win. Like if Iowa is +1 for Trump, then Ohio, Texas and Florida are still in play, and Harris is winning at least the Blue Wall.
- Trump has not had a good week, to put it mildly. This was in the field Monday-Thursday, so post-Madison Square Garden.
- Pollsters may be encouraging pro-Trump or "keep it close" results in intentional or unintentional ways (Nate Cohn gets at this in his article below, and NYT Times/Siena is a rather important poll). Iowa doesn't have much of a polling basis to compare to, and Trump +4 was Selzer's earlier result in Iowa.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/02/upsho...ction.html