[SIZE="5"]Analysis of Expansive[/SIZE]
Actually I will try to quantify the factory bonus.
10 factories * 56h ... t150? -> 3h -> 5b. So why not, I'll give ORG 195.
Now EXP, because I'm quite curious if this will seem plausible at all:
The bonus on the first worker is worth about 0.75t. In this case it's less - it's worth 1t of hammers minus 0.7t of commerce. But if it were not a plains hill start and there were no oasis, it would instead be saving 2t of hammers and only costing 0.5t of commerce. The value of commerce vs hammers produced at the start is very similar, so I am just treating 1t of hammers = 1t of commerce = 0.5 turns = 10b. So anyway, EXP's bonus on the first worker? 16b.
How about on all future workers? My rough estimate is that you will build 20 workers, saving 3h each via EXP (it could save up to 8h, but since it doesn't work on food, and will also cause overflow rounding loss, this does not happen in practice). I estimate that the worker builds are centered geometrically around t50, so that we can simply discount the sum 60h by 2^2.5 and get 10.6h -> 18b.
Now the granaries. It may look like a 20h discount, but buildings are more expensive when you don't own a granary yet! Every pop point you grow without storing food effectively costs you a pop point (you could have grown 2 pop with that food, had you had a granary first). So let's say a granary costs 2 pop.
If you are solely whipping it out, then a non-EXP player needs to grow 3 granary-less pop (costing another 3 virtual pop) and then kill off 2 of them, total cost of 5 pop. Whereas an EXP player only has to grow 1 granary-less pop (costing 1 virtual pop) and then whip away 1 pop, costing a total of 2 pop. In this case EXP's reward was comparable to 3 pop = 60h.
If you are using one math chop and whipping the rest, EXP doesn't have to spend any pop, and non-EXP has to spend 2 pop (1 virtual and unborn, 1 whipped). I consider this the average case, and in this case EXP gains 40h.
Finally, if you are chopping the whole thing, EXP only saves 20h. Of course there is additional overhead cost in supplying so many workers to new cities that you can afford to do this.
Naturally, depending on the city's tiles, these numbers will vary. But I feel good claiming that EXP saves approximately 40h for every city, and right after the city is founded. Therefore for this estimate I will guess that we save 40h * 14 cities = 560h centered around t50, and this comes out to about 100h, worth 167b. Total value of EXP so far: 167 + 18 + 16 = 201b.
The rest of EXP is harbors (I estimate savings of 50h on t80 worth 3h = 5b), and 2 health (I estimate 16fpt starting t150 = 7b), bringing the total estimated benefit to 213b.
Actually I will try to quantify the factory bonus.
10 factories * 56h ... t150? -> 3h -> 5b. So why not, I'll give ORG 195.
Now EXP, because I'm quite curious if this will seem plausible at all:
The bonus on the first worker is worth about 0.75t. In this case it's less - it's worth 1t of hammers minus 0.7t of commerce. But if it were not a plains hill start and there were no oasis, it would instead be saving 2t of hammers and only costing 0.5t of commerce. The value of commerce vs hammers produced at the start is very similar, so I am just treating 1t of hammers = 1t of commerce = 0.5 turns = 10b. So anyway, EXP's bonus on the first worker? 16b.
How about on all future workers? My rough estimate is that you will build 20 workers, saving 3h each via EXP (it could save up to 8h, but since it doesn't work on food, and will also cause overflow rounding loss, this does not happen in practice). I estimate that the worker builds are centered geometrically around t50, so that we can simply discount the sum 60h by 2^2.5 and get 10.6h -> 18b.
Now the granaries. It may look like a 20h discount, but buildings are more expensive when you don't own a granary yet! Every pop point you grow without storing food effectively costs you a pop point (you could have grown 2 pop with that food, had you had a granary first). So let's say a granary costs 2 pop.
If you are solely whipping it out, then a non-EXP player needs to grow 3 granary-less pop (costing another 3 virtual pop) and then kill off 2 of them, total cost of 5 pop. Whereas an EXP player only has to grow 1 granary-less pop (costing 1 virtual pop) and then whip away 1 pop, costing a total of 2 pop. In this case EXP's reward was comparable to 3 pop = 60h.
If you are using one math chop and whipping the rest, EXP doesn't have to spend any pop, and non-EXP has to spend 2 pop (1 virtual and unborn, 1 whipped). I consider this the average case, and in this case EXP gains 40h.
Finally, if you are chopping the whole thing, EXP only saves 20h. Of course there is additional overhead cost in supplying so many workers to new cities that you can afford to do this.
Naturally, depending on the city's tiles, these numbers will vary. But I feel good claiming that EXP saves approximately 40h for every city, and right after the city is founded. Therefore for this estimate I will guess that we save 40h * 14 cities = 560h centered around t50, and this comes out to about 100h, worth 167b. Total value of EXP so far: 167 + 18 + 16 = 201b.
The rest of EXP is harbors (I estimate savings of 50h on t80 worth 3h = 5b), and 2 health (I estimate 16fpt starting t150 = 7b), bringing the total estimated benefit to 213b.