Krill Wrote:Before you do the next trait...can you evaluate the Mids (because evaluating with regatrds to beakers seems a bit...circular) and Oracle to MC (because of the forges thing)?
No.
The best evaluations we have for those strategies are that they seem to be worth going for sometimes, and we know the turns (mids with stone = about t50, oracle I don't remember, maybe t38 or so?). We know that no one beelines directly to the enabling techs, and that it's not worth building them before your first settler, which shows that there are additional sacrifices to get them earlier which could be made but aren't, and which therefore demonstrates that the build times we are seeing are close to fair (i.e. the net benefit derived from a t50 mids run is not that high).
What I can evaluate is much more IND benefits from those strategies compared to other players. If IND goes for mids with stone, they are saving 67h on t50, which is maybe 20h more than I had assumed IND would be saving on average in that timeframe. So this earns them an additional 6b worth of value to start.
If IND goes for the oracle-metal casting thing, they are on-track with regard to number of hammers saved on wonders. But they get access to forges earlier, let's say they build the first 4 forges 20t sooner. I would place the average value of those forges at 70h (in other words it wouldn't be worth it for a non-IND player who oracled metal casting to build all of them; such a player would only build 1-2 forges earlier). So by building them early, IND is getting 30h * 4 timeshifted forward from t70 to t50, which is worth 21.2h - 10.6h, so 11h = 18b
I intended to average these values into the value I gave for IND (by shifting forge build times forward a little bit due to the possibility of oracled MC, and by setting the wonder hammers estimate a little high due to options like pyramids and GLH). So the fact that these strategies provide additional value to IND does not increase the estimate I gave in the previous post, or at least not much.