Response to Sareln analysis.
1) Injera/Merovech/Jkaen having voted both Bigger and Sareln
I wouldn't rule out a wolf move here on this basis. Sareln was a very safe vote at the start of day 2. Obviously he isn't cleared.
Just noticed the timing of Jkaen's vote: he added a vote to bigger immediately after the disintegration of Matt's wagon. If mafia wanted to test the viability of the Bigger wagon, this was the time, while the vote is sitting at 7-4 instead of 11-5. But no one else moves. I think what this says is: If jkaen is town, then it's likely that mafia gave up on saving thestick at this time because none of them followed the lead of a town to try and save him; and if jkaen is scum this is the pressure point where mafia unsuccessfully tested the waters on Bigger (and no other scum joined because they decided it'd be too conspicuous for 2 scum to jump on simultaneously.) Either way it suggests that scum did decide to abandon Thestick at this point.
Doesn't clear the late Bigger voters since a scum might have decided to hop on when he saw movement actually happening, and Merovech gains scum points for being one of the late Bigger voters and today still taking the view that ALL the other late bigger voters (sareln, uberfish, catwalk) are suspicious.
2) thestick's behaviour
If thestick was indicating anything to his teammates he could have done so in the wolf QT. I think the unvote just indicates that thestick decided to act like a resigned villager - he might have lurked around to see if he could save himself at the end.
1) Injera/Merovech/Jkaen having voted both Bigger and Sareln
I wouldn't rule out a wolf move here on this basis. Sareln was a very safe vote at the start of day 2. Obviously he isn't cleared.
Just noticed the timing of Jkaen's vote: he added a vote to bigger immediately after the disintegration of Matt's wagon. If mafia wanted to test the viability of the Bigger wagon, this was the time, while the vote is sitting at 7-4 instead of 11-5. But no one else moves. I think what this says is: If jkaen is town, then it's likely that mafia gave up on saving thestick at this time because none of them followed the lead of a town to try and save him; and if jkaen is scum this is the pressure point where mafia unsuccessfully tested the waters on Bigger (and no other scum joined because they decided it'd be too conspicuous for 2 scum to jump on simultaneously.) Either way it suggests that scum did decide to abandon Thestick at this point.
Doesn't clear the late Bigger voters since a scum might have decided to hop on when he saw movement actually happening, and Merovech gains scum points for being one of the late Bigger voters and today still taking the view that ALL the other late bigger voters (sareln, uberfish, catwalk) are suspicious.
2) thestick's behaviour
Sareln Wrote:theStick: Unvoted
Pindicator: Unvoted, voted theStick, and then voted Merovech.
Sareln (self): voted Bigger.
Serdoa: voted theStick.
Uberfish: voted Bigger.
Twinkletoes89: Unvoted, and then voted theStick.
theStick unvotes completely and then never lays another vote. This was puzzling to me. I suspect though is that it indicates the initial wolf decision was to bus or it was theStick's way of indicating to his teammates that a save should not be attempted.
If thestick was indicating anything to his teammates he could have done so in the wolf QT. I think the unvote just indicates that thestick decided to act like a resigned villager - he might have lurked around to see if he could save himself at the end.