WW16: The Outlaws and The Olives

[pindicator]

Well, I haven't found a smoking gun either. But I have found a couple coincidences that make me lean village on you, Rowain.

Anyway, i've been digging around in Night 2, working with a hypothesis that the wolves knew they would target Serdoa but the Bigger death caught them by surprise. So I think it's a rare moment that the wolves were surprised by the outcome of a night and while there's nothing damning to put one person away with, I do think it's worth tucking away for the future.

Anyway, Rowain comes into this from the other angle: I think this approach gives a village lean on his actions. First he attacks Serdoa, trying to tie the two of us as scum.

I do want to point out that Serdoa worked quite hard to save pindicator he even tried to start a fight with me with some ridicoulous ideas.

Then he goes on to question Bigger.

Maybe Gaspar interpreted this:

I think its very plausible a village novice would fake a post restriction.

Please tell me a good reason why a villager (no matter if novice or not) would fake that restriction? Even more why you think it very plausible that he did so.

That you Bigger and Tasunke ay so is no surprise as you fall clearly under section a. Selrahc on the other hand.

Now, Rowain doesn't attack Bigger like other people do, and his conclusions are that Bigger is likely villager. So while this isn't strong enough to entirely clear Rowain, I think this gives him a village lean.


So who does attack Bigger?

Novice

I forget who said something similar, but it bothers me how all Bigger's posts come across scummy, which of course conflicts with the bandwagon evidence from day 1.

Were all the Bigger switches just random, and wolves had the worst day 1 ever / were all driving buses?

Exploring this is not my top priority, but at least now I can express my suspicions without framing them in bold and red.

Uberfish

Bigger and azza basically didn't do anything d2 except to repeatedly parrot the line that Sareln and myself were obvscum based on d1 voting.

I will add that the most likely scum bussing/distancing slots on Thestick are Arromir/Bigger due to their behaviour on day 2. Arromir acted guilty about it and Bigger decided to coast on the "scum tried to save thestick" theory.

Ichabod

I pointed out some scummy posts by Bigger, especially the ones where he kept saying that I was... forgot the exact expression he used, but something like obvious scum, not only me but 3/4 more players, but without givinmg any justification of any of this. Later he dismissed my defenses in a similar fashion.

And Catwalk

True, I forgot that it wouldn't have decided the lynch. But there was a lot of vote confusion and no tally, he couldn't know for sure that a Bigger vote wouldn't save him. Again, there might be a very plausible explanation for why he didn't switch.

I think Tasunke fully believed what his tinfoil hat was telling him, less sure of Bigger.

I don't think Rowain is saying novice wouldn't fake it, he's saying it's highly implausible. This stands in contrast to Bigger who says it's plausible he'd fake it, EVEN as a villager. I don't see this as tunnel vision from Rowain.

All of post
http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....count=1172

I don't think all 4 of them are wolves, no. But I'm willing to bet 1 of them is.

And if I missed someone, please link the post. I did this in fits and starts so I'm not confident I got everything from last night.

Novice was also talking about giving Selrahc some pressure so let's see how that goes. Q's vote just now also strikes me as suspicious, in that it is a very easy vote to make without thinking.