WEREWOLF
http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...22&page=24
here you see Serdoa leave Mattimeo for TheStick. As well as Pindicator starting what would become the Mattyboy BW
here you see Sareln, Serdoa, and Uberfish all jumping on Mattimeo after Pindicator starts off the re-BW.
Or namely, Serdoa left, then returned after pindicator + Sareln jumped on.
And of course Twinkletoes jumps on, our ***8216;probably villager***8217; of the last 10 minutes
***61672; If you can assume for one second that Pindicator (like Merovech) is indeed village, then this is an entirely village-based Bandwagon. I say entirely because while thestick is on here, he was on way early as a ***8220;safe***8221; wolfvswolf vote.
http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....tcount=256
and here Mattimeo shows much regret for voting TheStick. Regret for voting a fellow wolf to his doom?
Perhaps here is when the true TheStick bus started. Earlier I had falsely given myself credit for ***8220;saving***8221; mattimeo from a wolf-push ***8230; but here and now I see things differently.
1. Mattimeo was voted on by villagers
2. TheStick had some ***8216;heavy hitting***8217; voters on him
3. Bussing the stick would gain some villager cred for ***8216;saving***8217; Matt.
4. They could have taken some time to decide in the wolf thread who they***8217;d rather save- Matt or Stick. In the end they chose Matt, perhaps with agreement from TheStick, as you later see Stick simply not voting.
5. Stick not voting could have also been designed to make Bigger look more guilty
6. Merovech, who scummily jumped off Stick, turned village. Who is to say Pind won***8217;t flip village either? Therefore, as all ***8220;saving***8221; attempts seem to be of village origin, Stick MUST have been bussed.
7. Why would stick be bussed if everyone else was innocent? More likely that someone was wolf. Who are the people that got a lot of votes on Day 1? Mattimeo, Tasunke, TheStick, Bigger.
***61672; We know TheStick was wolf, and he got lynched. We know Bigger was innocent. I***8217;m at least 60% sure that I***8217;m innocent
***8230; so that Leaves Mattimeo.
8. As others have said, Mattyboy***8217;s claim is starting to look more and more suspicious. Nothing particularly telling in and of itself, but combined with the rest it seems closer and closer to sticking a noose around his neck.
9. Then mattimeo makes this offer here http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....count=1767
Which, to me, looks like a pro-village post ***8230; but not necessarily from a villager. Notice how I said ***8220;regardless of alignment***8221; as even then it looked more like a bluff than a helpful villager, but I still liked how he was ***8216;keeping us***8217; from revealing power roles. I mean, it is not like the village is guaranteed any useful roles
***8230; but still.
I mean think about this from the perspective of if Mattimeo is a wolf. In THIS case, the wolves would HAVE to know that there is ***8216;no baner***8217; as no one called Matt out on Day 1 or Day 2. (iirc)
If there is no baner, then the wolves probably won***8217;t care all that much about keeping the other powers from revealing. And look at blood brothers! If anything we village seem only to get weak, hindrance weakness roles. I mean yes, the 2 kill thing could be a way of countering the mason thing ***8230; but would 2 non-weak masons really be such a bad thing? I guess it***8217;s a way to keep them from claiming, but still ***8230;
All this put together, it seems like post 1767 was more ***8216;well crafted***8217; to look like village than an actual villager. I mean HELL! If I was a baner I***8217;d be trying like mad to explain either A) why I protected those I did, or B) explaining why I hadn***8217;t used any shots yet. See WW12 for my Watcher reports. (I think it was 12 anyways). And yes, not all villagers act like me (and probably a good thing eh? :P) but STILL! I think a villager would be a bit more nervous about the Shadow wagon that seems to be looming over Matt***8217;s head.
No ***8230;. I think Mattimeo may be just bluffing and playing it cool until the pressure is over.
therefore Mattimeo
http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...22&page=24
here you see Serdoa leave Mattimeo for TheStick. As well as Pindicator starting what would become the Mattyboy BW
here you see Sareln, Serdoa, and Uberfish all jumping on Mattimeo after Pindicator starts off the re-BW.
Or namely, Serdoa left, then returned after pindicator + Sareln jumped on.
And of course Twinkletoes jumps on, our ***8216;probably villager***8217; of the last 10 minutes
***61672; If you can assume for one second that Pindicator (like Merovech) is indeed village, then this is an entirely village-based Bandwagon. I say entirely because while thestick is on here, he was on way early as a ***8220;safe***8221; wolfvswolf vote.
http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....tcount=256
and here Mattimeo shows much regret for voting TheStick. Regret for voting a fellow wolf to his doom?
Perhaps here is when the true TheStick bus started. Earlier I had falsely given myself credit for ***8220;saving***8221; mattimeo from a wolf-push ***8230; but here and now I see things differently.
1. Mattimeo was voted on by villagers
2. TheStick had some ***8216;heavy hitting***8217; voters on him
3. Bussing the stick would gain some villager cred for ***8216;saving***8217; Matt.
4. They could have taken some time to decide in the wolf thread who they***8217;d rather save- Matt or Stick. In the end they chose Matt, perhaps with agreement from TheStick, as you later see Stick simply not voting.
5. Stick not voting could have also been designed to make Bigger look more guilty
6. Merovech, who scummily jumped off Stick, turned village. Who is to say Pind won***8217;t flip village either? Therefore, as all ***8220;saving***8221; attempts seem to be of village origin, Stick MUST have been bussed.
7. Why would stick be bussed if everyone else was innocent? More likely that someone was wolf. Who are the people that got a lot of votes on Day 1? Mattimeo, Tasunke, TheStick, Bigger.
***61672; We know TheStick was wolf, and he got lynched. We know Bigger was innocent. I***8217;m at least 60% sure that I***8217;m innocent
***8230; so that Leaves Mattimeo.8. As others have said, Mattyboy***8217;s claim is starting to look more and more suspicious. Nothing particularly telling in and of itself, but combined with the rest it seems closer and closer to sticking a noose around his neck.
9. Then mattimeo makes this offer here http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....count=1767
Which, to me, looks like a pro-village post ***8230; but not necessarily from a villager. Notice how I said ***8220;regardless of alignment***8221; as even then it looked more like a bluff than a helpful villager, but I still liked how he was ***8216;keeping us***8217; from revealing power roles. I mean, it is not like the village is guaranteed any useful roles
***8230; but still.I mean think about this from the perspective of if Mattimeo is a wolf. In THIS case, the wolves would HAVE to know that there is ***8216;no baner***8217; as no one called Matt out on Day 1 or Day 2. (iirc)
If there is no baner, then the wolves probably won***8217;t care all that much about keeping the other powers from revealing. And look at blood brothers! If anything we village seem only to get weak, hindrance weakness roles. I mean yes, the 2 kill thing could be a way of countering the mason thing ***8230; but would 2 non-weak masons really be such a bad thing? I guess it***8217;s a way to keep them from claiming, but still ***8230;
All this put together, it seems like post 1767 was more ***8216;well crafted***8217; to look like village than an actual villager. I mean HELL! If I was a baner I***8217;d be trying like mad to explain either A) why I protected those I did, or B) explaining why I hadn***8217;t used any shots yet. See WW12 for my Watcher reports. (I think it was 12 anyways). And yes, not all villagers act like me (and probably a good thing eh? :P) but STILL! I think a villager would be a bit more nervous about the Shadow wagon that seems to be looming over Matt***8217;s head.
No ***8230;. I think Mattimeo may be just bluffing and playing it cool until the pressure is over.
therefore Mattimeo