WW16: The Outlaws and The Olives

[novice]

Okay, analysis of the first Mattimeo wagon on day 4. My impression is that day 4 started with the village being rather lost and putting votes here and there. There was a bit of parrying between Rowain and me/Jkaen. After the following votes

pindicator votes Injera
Jkaen votes Rowain
novice votes Rowain
Catwalk votes pindicator
Gaspar votes Injera
Azza votes Waterbat
TT votes novice
Lewwyn votes Rowain
Injera votes Catwalk
Azza switches from Waterbat to Catwalk
Tasunke votes Rowain
Molach votes TT
Qgqqqqqq votes Arromir
Mattimeo votes TT (quoted below)

the tally was
Rowain - 4 - Jkaen, novice, Lewwyn, Tasunke
Injera - 2 - pindicator, Gaspar
Catwalk - 2 - Injera, Azza
TT - 2 - Molach, Mattimeo
Pindicator - 1 - Catwalk
novice - 1 - TT
Arromir - 1 - Qgqqqqq

(no official tally had been posted at this point).

Then the first wave of suspicion on Mattimeo starts with this post:

Changes to lynching patterns due to a slight in geneal activity levels seems like a bad precedent to be setting...
I also don't see how people being inactive, as opposed to simply not playing, is all that detrimental in the current state. We don't need an absolute majority to lynch, just more than is on any other candidate. Inactives have as good a chance of decucting a vote against a town as they do against a wolf.

Twinkletoes89 for both the point last night about how only a scum novice would still be alive this morning, and the post this morning containing only a vote. I can only assume that the justifiction is what I just mentioned, but it's not exactly that difficult to refer to your reasoning...

Followed by

You're voting for TT because he didn't state the reason for his vote, even though the reason is obvious?

Why do we have a baner when Bigger said we wouldn't have one?

Why have you not been able to protect anyone?

Very tempted to vote for you.

And

I have to agree that the lack of any countermovement against Catwalk until the very end makes him lean village.

starting to think that the reason day1 was such a cluster was that we had 2 wolves up there to start things off.

Mattimeo

cue Meiz coming in and saying this isnt the first vote of the day on Mattimeo - its actually the second since novice said he was tempted to vote

Yes Waterbat, I started it again even though you cast the first vote. And I saw it through to the end too. :D

Following this, still no official tallies, and the following people expressed suspicion of Mattimeo and/or voted for him:

Novice (suspicion) http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...post296854
Waterbat (suspicion and vote) http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...post296858
Rowain (mild/indirect suspicion) http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...post296880
JKaen votes Pindicator based on Rowain's analysis http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...post296883
Waterbat reconfirms Mattimeo suspicion based on Rowain's analysis http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...post296886
Novice unvotes and votes Ichabod based on Rowain's analysis http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...post296887
Jkaen posts this tally

Injera (3) - Pind, Gaspar, Meiz
Rowain (2) - Novice, Tansuke
Pindicator (2) - Catwalk, Jkaen
Novice (1) - TT
Catwalk (2) - Injera, Azza
TT (2) - Molach, Matt
Arromir (1) - Qg
Matt (1) - WB

Not Voting -
Rowain, Lewwyn, Ichabod, Arromir, Selrahc

He's missed my switch to Ichabod due to crossposting, and he mistakenly has Meiz voting Injera (is actually not voting), Lewwyn not voting (is actually voting Rowain). Continuing, morphing over to a post-by-post summary:

Catwalk (suspiction and investigation suggestion) http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...post296901
Jkaen disagrees with Catwalks suggestion but agrees Mattimeo is suspicious http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...post296904
Meiz agrees that Catwalks suggestion is bad http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...post296906
Tasunke switches from Rowain to Ichabod http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...post296907
Tasunke disagrees with Catwalks suggestion but agrees Mattimeo is suspicious http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...post296909
JKaen want TTs thoughts on Pindicator
Catwalk drops his investigation suggestion, still suspects Mattimeo
TT thinks Mattimeo is lying. Unvotes from novice. http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...post296919
Jkaen directs TT to Rowains analysis implicating Pindicator
Mattimeo defends
Tasunke: "I just wonder why the wolves would bus theStick in order to save Mattimeo ... (assuming both r wulves) if I knew that, then maybe I could see Matty boy being a wolf." http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...post296926
Tasunke in next post: "And yes, I am leaning towards being open to the possibility of a Matty boy lynch."
TT answers Jkaen that TT would use Rowain's analysis to implicate Mattimeo, not Pindicator.
Tasunke attacks Mattimeos voting
Mattimeo defends
JKaen makes a post I don't really understand but I think maybe it's meant to defend Mattimeo? http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...post296938
JKaen follows up with "Hmm interesting that the first 2 to jump off Mattimeo are Pind and TT" - still not sure what Jkaen is talking about here.
Pindicator addresses me and says he agrees with me that Qgqqqqqq is suspicious. http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...post296943
TT thinks we had two wolves up on day 1 and should look at Bigger voters
Tasunke makes a long case and votes Mattimeo http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...post296949
Meiz makes a long case and votes Mattimeo http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...post296951
Novice posts three posts with minor points against Mattimeo, then votes Mattimeo http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...post296957
Mattimeo defends
Ichabod derails the Mattimeo wagon with this post (and votes Catwalk): http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...post296969
Tasunke reconfirms Mattimeo
Lewwyn votes Mattimeo (x-post) http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...post296980
Lewwyn votes Injera
TT votes Mattimeo
Ichabod forcefully shuts down Mattimeo wagon
Gaspar chimes in

@work but I just saw this development so thought i'd comment quickly.

I'm iffy on the Mattimeo claim, which I made pretty clear on day 2. But I think it's awfully risky, we're going to feel like jackasses if he flips blue. To me I'd rather give him another night or two and maybe he guesses right. If not, we can lynch him since he's not actually contributing much to scumhunting.

I'm absorbing, I'll comment thoroughly tonight.

At its peak the first Mattimeo wagon had the following people voting:
Waterbat, Tasunke, Meiz, Novice, Lewwyn, TT (Lewwyn unvoted shortly before TT voted though).

Various votes as people move their votes from Mattimeo
First official tally of the day:

Official Lynch Vote Count

Injera - 5 - Pindicator, Gaspar, Lewwyn, Meiz, novice
Catwalk - 3 - Injera, Azza, Ichabod
Twinkletoes89 - 3 - Molach, Mattimeo, tasunke
Mattimeo - 2 - Waterbat, Twinkletoes89
Pindicator - 2 - Catwalk, Jkaen
Arromir - 1 - Qgqqqqq

Players not voting: Arromir, Rowain, Selrahc

40 minutes later, in the next post, Injera claims.

Impressions:
The buildup on Mattimeo was very organic.
I think Injera claimed to clear himself, not to save Mattimeo.
Ichabod's reasoning for shutting down the Mattimeo wagon made sense at the time. Gaspar and Pindicator seemed to work against the Mattimeo wagon. Jkaen was hesitant to get on.