What I suggested last game night was that I think a lot of the post-lynch reactions were interesting - obviously there's that sort of "why we all play werewolf" emotional release at the end of it but I thought it was worth examining the number of players who sort of moved to a "SEE THIS IS WHY THIS CLEARS ME" posture in the post-lynch. It dovetails with my theory that this was not a clean scum/non-scum split on the voters.
To expound on that, one of my preferred scumhunting tools is trying to ascertain the composition of the pack from their known behaviors. Its not as good as blatant tells, but I think its useful. So let me posit a theory. Let's say our mafia team is something like this:
Thestick, Mattimeo, Pindicator, Lewwyn, Jkaen, Novice*
*note, I don't think this is actually our group, I'm just throwing a plausible composition out there for purposes of this example.
On Day 1, Thestick earns the MNG-memorial trophy for worst first day performance by scum. Mattimeo also looks quite scummy and is forced to role claim to save himself. If the rest of the team is 4 experienced players, several of whom who have rolled wolf before... well, if I'm on that team I've written those two off already. We still have a strong team of players who are easily going to be able to blend in, so I'm going to go ahead and drop stick like a bad habit. I wouldn't touch the Bigger run with a 10-foot pole. If I'm really savvy, I'd try to be one of the first on thestick because he's obviously playing terribly and going to be unable to fight the lynch off.
On Day 4, I'm sitting around watching the lynch, I know Qgqqqqq and Injera are telling the truth and I don't want the stink of cutting down a power role on me so I decide that now is the time to cut bait on Mattimeo who hasn't actually done anything useful with his power to this point. I also now have the identity of presumably the only village investigative roles which I can kill the next two nights. Matt's been awkward in the thread and I know there's no way to save him long term, so let's get him out of there, build some serious village credit and move along to hiding the remaining team members who I know can survive in thread.
You can say this all very not plausible but the night kills also seem to follow a train of an experienced player at the head of the pack who is directing the kills based off player skill/past-experience. Sure, zakalwe was a kill anyone would have made on Night 1. But the Serdoa kill after he just landed the deathblow on a villager is not something an unskilled scum is going to do - he looked very mislynchable. But a skilled player knows Serdoa is a strong player and wants him out of there. Same on Night 3, if you're not good at reading tea leaves you see uberfish has had heat all game - maybe we should just leave him and get someone else.
So to think we have some completely disorganized team just screwing up left and right just doesn't fit the evidence IMO. I think we have some quality scum leaders and some solid blenders. And right now, I think Lewwyn has contributed absolutely nothing this game and looks like a good bet for one of our experienced blenders.
To expound on that, one of my preferred scumhunting tools is trying to ascertain the composition of the pack from their known behaviors. Its not as good as blatant tells, but I think its useful. So let me posit a theory. Let's say our mafia team is something like this:
Thestick, Mattimeo, Pindicator, Lewwyn, Jkaen, Novice*
*note, I don't think this is actually our group, I'm just throwing a plausible composition out there for purposes of this example.
On Day 1, Thestick earns the MNG-memorial trophy for worst first day performance by scum. Mattimeo also looks quite scummy and is forced to role claim to save himself. If the rest of the team is 4 experienced players, several of whom who have rolled wolf before... well, if I'm on that team I've written those two off already. We still have a strong team of players who are easily going to be able to blend in, so I'm going to go ahead and drop stick like a bad habit. I wouldn't touch the Bigger run with a 10-foot pole. If I'm really savvy, I'd try to be one of the first on thestick because he's obviously playing terribly and going to be unable to fight the lynch off.
On Day 4, I'm sitting around watching the lynch, I know Qgqqqqq and Injera are telling the truth and I don't want the stink of cutting down a power role on me so I decide that now is the time to cut bait on Mattimeo who hasn't actually done anything useful with his power to this point. I also now have the identity of presumably the only village investigative roles which I can kill the next two nights. Matt's been awkward in the thread and I know there's no way to save him long term, so let's get him out of there, build some serious village credit and move along to hiding the remaining team members who I know can survive in thread.
You can say this all very not plausible but the night kills also seem to follow a train of an experienced player at the head of the pack who is directing the kills based off player skill/past-experience. Sure, zakalwe was a kill anyone would have made on Night 1. But the Serdoa kill after he just landed the deathblow on a villager is not something an unskilled scum is going to do - he looked very mislynchable. But a skilled player knows Serdoa is a strong player and wants him out of there. Same on Night 3, if you're not good at reading tea leaves you see uberfish has had heat all game - maybe we should just leave him and get someone else.
So to think we have some completely disorganized team just screwing up left and right just doesn't fit the evidence IMO. I think we have some quality scum leaders and some solid blenders. And right now, I think Lewwyn has contributed absolutely nothing this game and looks like a good bet for one of our experienced blenders.
I've got some dirt on my shoulder, can you brush it off for me?