WW16: The Outlaws and The Olives

[novice]

Another note about Rowain - on night 1 he was eager to start analyzing the late day 1 voters, which seemed very helpful at the time. At this point it seems like focusing on late voters was mostly a red herring though.

If reading Day 1 Rowain gives your wolf vibes, what about today? I don't think he's been wolfy, but he did wait till late to place his vote, I think. I think that usually is a sign of someone waiting to see how the water is before making any sudden moves, but again not necessarily scummy.

Rowain on day 4 was notable for two things. During the first Mattimeo push he did some analysis that came across as very villagery. Rereading it now his conclusion was:

Part2

Befoer a short comment as I saw just novices post with the votes: Overdone vote-alyzing was what did cost the village WW14.
Nevertheless to continue: Day 1:
5 hours before lynch thestick is in the lead with 4 votes.
Then the Mattimeo-BW starts to run started by Serdoa (villager) comment he would vote Mattimeo do note that he votes thestick with that post. followed by uberfish(villager) that he would vote Mattimeo over thestick.

Then followed the first real vote: from pindicator then Sareln,Serdoa,uberfish (all 3 vill) and lastly TT.

Now we have 3 possiblities: a) Mattimeo is a fraud and we really had 2 wolves under the 3 topsuspects.
b) Mattimeo is real and pindicator used the comments from uber and Serdoa to make a run to save thestick. His later actions do support that (unvote, thestick, move to Merovech)
c) pindi is a villager but Matt is too are we really to believe that wolves sat on their hands happily lynching thestick? If no then of course TT is a wolf.

So to answer your question novice:
Yes pind is still high on my list: I would also be ok with a Tasunke and TT-lynch. Ichabod and Azza are currently second tier for me. And Mattimeo is a special case.

He offers three options, only one of which involves Mattimeo being a wolf, and chooses to focus on Pindicator. So this could be a crafty attempt to deflect from Mattimeo while maintaining deniability, but I doubt it.

The other thing Rowain did on day 4 was to help lynch Mattimeo, he brought the vote to 6 on Mattimeo and 7 on Qqqq. This was his justification:

In short now show us how truly you want to lynch Mattimeo

So I don't know, it could perhaps be read as trying to intimidate someone into backing off Mattimeo, but that feels far-fetched too.

So I think Rowain gains quite a lot of village cred for day 4. Which is a shame, in a way, because it brings him back to the grey zone where I have too many suspects at the moment.

Gaspar made a good point about the atmosphere after the Mattimeo lynch being exuberant. Rowain gave off this vibe too when I reread the day 4 lynch briefly just now. Pindicator not so much, according to Gaspar.

I would be okay with lynching Rowain, Pindicator and Tasunke. The first two would provide some information, and honestly Tasunke is not the worst lynch as mislynches go. They're also interlinked - Pindicator flipping scum would earn Rowain more village cred due to day 2, and IIRC Pindicator was also throwing suspicion on Tasunke on day 1.

I feel that these three are more likely than the rest of the players to be a wolf, but there's a very real possibility of a mislynch for all of them.

It might be a good idea to put Jkaen under the magnifying glass.