I may have misread some of what you were trying to say on the mattimeo front there Catwalk so I will have a think on that for a while.
I will take issue on your assumption that it would have been suicidal for a mafia member to defend thestick after a bus was decided.
1) You are still alive despite that fact. Whether villager or mafia that means that despite defending thestick you have survived. Why could that not be the same for a mafia member?
2) I'm not so sure that the 'bus' was completely set in stone. The way the wind was blowing after Mattimeo's reveal, it seemed like thestick would hang by a large margin, thus a bus is the most painfree way of dealing with it. When momentum starts to appear for a Bigger lynch, I think that some mafia would have used that as a chance to perhaps avoid having to bus thestick, especially after it started to get close. I don't for a second think that the mafia would have decided to go full steam ahead with a bus come what may, so to say that mafia wouldn't try to push a villager alternative (as some I'm sure did) is a little off for me.
3) Even if the 'bus' was decided, I think that the mafia may well have wanted it to be close rather than a massive majority vote. If its a large majority, it will be interpreted 100% as a bus and those who voted for him will be suspected as mafia. If it gets close, but never close enough to stop it happening, then those on thestick will gain a lot more credit than suspicion for nailing a mafia despite a late 'push' to save him.
4) Its important for the mafia that one death of one of them does not lead them to everyone else. Thus I think that it is highly unlikely that there were no mafia on the save thestick/lynch bigger bandwagon as if thestick was indeed lynched, some of them would be put into jeopardy by being on the bigger bandwagon (though surrounded by a number of villagers) while others would have the chance of deep cover under the credit of delivering a mafia member.
Thus, in short, I do think that it is a more than credible mafia play to defend thestick vigorously and push an innocent alternative.
I will take issue on your assumption that it would have been suicidal for a mafia member to defend thestick after a bus was decided.
1) You are still alive despite that fact. Whether villager or mafia that means that despite defending thestick you have survived. Why could that not be the same for a mafia member?
2) I'm not so sure that the 'bus' was completely set in stone. The way the wind was blowing after Mattimeo's reveal, it seemed like thestick would hang by a large margin, thus a bus is the most painfree way of dealing with it. When momentum starts to appear for a Bigger lynch, I think that some mafia would have used that as a chance to perhaps avoid having to bus thestick, especially after it started to get close. I don't for a second think that the mafia would have decided to go full steam ahead with a bus come what may, so to say that mafia wouldn't try to push a villager alternative (as some I'm sure did) is a little off for me.
3) Even if the 'bus' was decided, I think that the mafia may well have wanted it to be close rather than a massive majority vote. If its a large majority, it will be interpreted 100% as a bus and those who voted for him will be suspected as mafia. If it gets close, but never close enough to stop it happening, then those on thestick will gain a lot more credit than suspicion for nailing a mafia despite a late 'push' to save him.
4) Its important for the mafia that one death of one of them does not lead them to everyone else. Thus I think that it is highly unlikely that there were no mafia on the save thestick/lynch bigger bandwagon as if thestick was indeed lynched, some of them would be put into jeopardy by being on the bigger bandwagon (though surrounded by a number of villagers) while others would have the chance of deep cover under the credit of delivering a mafia member.
Thus, in short, I do think that it is a more than credible mafia play to defend thestick vigorously and push an innocent alternative.
"You want to take my city of Troll%ng? Go ahead and try."