WW16: The Outlaws and The Olives

[pindicator]

I think this is the clincher for me - look at the worst case scenario. If we lynch Waterbat and he is innocent, then we look at Jkaen. We've gained no other info. If we lynch Jkaen and he is innocent, then we look at Waterbat but we also have insights into who the hidden second scum is - Catwalk certainly would qualify in this scenario as a candidate based on potential distancing, etc. Simply the fact that Jkaen has (1) stopped playing and (2) is considered by everyone to be likely scum means he has to go today. He's not going to add anything else positive to the pile and he's always going to be a suspect.

I'm not sure I explained myself well there but I guess the only situation in which I would consider Waterbat a superior candidate is if we decide Meiz's argument on Jkaen is persuasive. I don't, since its all based on meta, really. I've been wrong a lot this game but I frankly would be very surprised if Jkaen were innocent - the pieces just fit together all too neatly. He's basically playing the exact same game as Molach - he sounded like an interested villager early in the game and as its gone on he's disappeared for personal reasons (which again, I'm sure are 100% legit and am not calling into question) and then has found it easier to just stay gone for long stretches of time. I thought he was village for most of the game myself, but at some point when your voting record is *that* bad and you've stopped contributing, Occam's says you're probably scum. Particularly since we know its not like Jkaen is a terrible WW player, he's actually quite solid.

I'm not arguing in favor of Waterbat - I think he's more than likely the other scum at this point. But I'm like 90% sure of Jkaen's guilt, I'm only maybe 60% certain on Waterbat. They've both played excellent games to get this far, but I think its winning time now. Let's stop the self-doubt and put this game to bed.

Well said Gaspar, and thank you for sharing this because it wasn't something I had thought of. I have a bad habit of jumping ahead 2 or 3 steps when I feel sure of the first -- I'm sure it's where I came across as being smug sometimes. So we should absolutely pick the lynch with the least risk to the village.

@waterbat - so you do not think jkaen is scum now?

I'll catch your answer in the morning, heading to bed