Mildly surprised by that, gg TT.
So there's 5 left...
Gaspar
Pindicator
Catwalk
Waterbat
Meiz
So if there are 2 scum left, we'd have been at lylo even without a kill. However, in this situation scum only need 1 person to vote with them to get a mislynch. With TT alive if we got the mayor vote right they'd need two. That's pretty minor, so I'd say the likelihood of a lone remaining mafia is slightly higher now. Regardless, it doesn't change what we need to do today is hit a lynch. Though the calculus is slightly different on 2 wolves vs 1 wolf - particularly that in 2 wolves there are certain combinations of scum that make more sense than others.
Under a 2 mafia metagame:
A lot depends on whether we assume Waterbat's guilty. If Waterbat is scum then that makes Meiz a likely innocent and makes Waterbat's scum buddy come from Pindicator, Catwalk and myself. If we think Waterbat's innocent, I'd say Meiz is almost definitely scum because in a two innocent situation there's no way scum would let their votes pile on one candidate.
I guess by this logic I'd say we either vote Waterbat or Meiz, with my lean towards Waterbat while figuring out his partner as we go.
1-mafia
In this situation, we don't get much from yesterday, really. In this setup, you can talk yourself into thinking Meiz or Pindicator who were the primary "drivers" on the lynch yesterday. I think its unlikely Waterbat would have been able to fight off the lynch by himself. Catwalk's behavior more consistent with a lone remaining scum as well.
I guess since we have 48 hours and only 5 players, maybe some others can chime in on the overarching meta here. I've assumed 6 total and 2 left all game, but I definitely have some doubt now.
So there's 5 left...
Gaspar
Pindicator
Catwalk
Waterbat
Meiz
So if there are 2 scum left, we'd have been at lylo even without a kill. However, in this situation scum only need 1 person to vote with them to get a mislynch. With TT alive if we got the mayor vote right they'd need two. That's pretty minor, so I'd say the likelihood of a lone remaining mafia is slightly higher now. Regardless, it doesn't change what we need to do today is hit a lynch. Though the calculus is slightly different on 2 wolves vs 1 wolf - particularly that in 2 wolves there are certain combinations of scum that make more sense than others.
Under a 2 mafia metagame:
A lot depends on whether we assume Waterbat's guilty. If Waterbat is scum then that makes Meiz a likely innocent and makes Waterbat's scum buddy come from Pindicator, Catwalk and myself. If we think Waterbat's innocent, I'd say Meiz is almost definitely scum because in a two innocent situation there's no way scum would let their votes pile on one candidate.
I guess by this logic I'd say we either vote Waterbat or Meiz, with my lean towards Waterbat while figuring out his partner as we go.
1-mafia
In this situation, we don't get much from yesterday, really. In this setup, you can talk yourself into thinking Meiz or Pindicator who were the primary "drivers" on the lynch yesterday. I think its unlikely Waterbat would have been able to fight off the lynch by himself. Catwalk's behavior more consistent with a lone remaining scum as well.
I guess since we have 48 hours and only 5 players, maybe some others can chime in on the overarching meta here. I've assumed 6 total and 2 left all game, but I definitely have some doubt now.