Honestly, how likely do you think this game had 5 wolves vs 21 villagers? With 2 different villager trackers and Ichabod's baner in play? I really don't like the way these 1-wolf theories start to pop up now, when we'd be in lynch or lose situation today with 2 wolves.
Pind starts off with a vote on wb, but now suddenly sees him as villager and votes me with IMO flimsy reasoning. Ended up voting Jkaen yesterday after going back and forth with the two. Also on Azza vs Waterbat day 8, starts off with suspicion on waterbat, but ultimately ends up on Azza. Same pattern seems to happen again today. General feeling is that he seems to suspect waterbat always when wb is near the block, but ends up voting alternative candidates. Same turned other way around, waterbat is on the block and makes a case on pindicator. He survives the day and has completely turned his cloak on Pind.
Gaspar&waterbat. I could see this working as well. If two wolves left, it could be good tactic to just go against each other and get the win next day. Who could imagine two wolves killing off each other at this point. So Catwalk would get night killed and me&pind would go against each other next day. This theory would probably be the most risky, so maybe not...
Or Pind & Gaspar. Waterbat has voted Gaspar and Pind has expressed suspicion on Gaspar now and earlier as well. Yet he votes me because I haven't voted today yet, voted TT&Catwalk as mayor, didn't react to Jkaen's no-response? If that would be the case, I can easily see them pushing me and waterbat on top, and basically force us to vote each other for the wolf win (they could count on that).
Parts of Lewwyn files:
Post 1201:
"I mentioned earlier that I'm not getting a good enough read on Pindicator either way. As I stated earlier, I'm not willing to base it on whether I think one action is more scummy than another. I'm willing to wait, or at least in case I'm dead, willing to have the village give him a few more days to prove his innocence before making a final judgement"
"Remember that big opening day post by Waterbat. I haven't seen a continuation of that really. Dunno yet if that's more or less suspicious. But I'm actually thinking it might be less suspicious because a villager would tire of the act... right?"
Post 1637:
"FYI Meiz, Waterbat spells my name like that half the time or more. I don't think that's a tell. However, I think the rest of the argument on Waterbat is worth investigating as an alternative to Catwalk."
Post 1805 (On day 1 Matt wagon):
"Day 1 train on him might in fact be all villagers... Or TT is a Wolf and he's played his paranoia to a T."
No mention of Pind, who was the other unknown voter.
Post 1878:
Catwalk votes Matt and Lewwyn seems really pissed off by that.
Also: "Right now I think my second choice on the day is waterbat. I'll probably talk about that a little this afternoon."
Post 1922:
Basically says that waterbat is villager.
Post 2203:
"Of everyone left, the people I trust most are novice, Meiz, waterbat and catwalk. Feels odd to say Catwalk but I simply see no way for him to be a wolf. Likewise waterbat who I examined yesterday and convinced me of his villageryness."
Again strong statements. No mention of Gaspar or Pind.
Post 3013:
"Nah, waterbat's gotta be innocent based on the rereading I did of him a few days ago. I don't see a wolf's consistency or studied affect. Instead it's much more free flowing and un-apprehensive."
Post 3017:
"I trust novice and I'm not buying into the tinfoil. Meiz I have also stated the same thing. Gaspar is someone I sparred with just two days ago but then I went after you and my suspicion has only grown so maybe I need to revisit Gaspar, that's a fair criticism. Truth be told though he's been sounding more like the Gaspar of WW games past. Didn't I talk about him being like his Perpy self earlier this game? Pindicator is such a friggin' grey area. Honestly I can't tell, either way I don't think it harms us to keep him alive while we lynch people I'm more suspicious of."
"they become obvious villagers (Catwalk, Waterbat)"
Post 3216:
"Gaspar has been all over the place for me this game. I read him really village early in the game and then soured a bit later, but I'm not unopposed to his current "research" if it materializes. Might be a good lynch just because he's an experienced wolf... but damn it usually I'm more sure of him by this point."
"Pindi is a survivor for sure. Just noticed he's the Lawyer. How appropriate."
http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...#pid299359 (for waterbat)
"I don't think its an insincere feeling you're getting from his post novice. I think its a more lackadaisical feeling. I said it before but I don't think waterbat is as focused, and thus I don't agree that he is scum."
http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...#pid299370
"Pindi is honestly still a mystery to me. I just can't get a full read. Maybe I just haven't looked hard enough. The issue for me is that I don't have anything to hold onto with him. I can't remember a post by him that made me stop and think about what he said except for one post he made back on Day 2 where he stated that the entire reason for hanging him seemed to be based on a vote switch of which could be read as either a villager or a wolf"
http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...#pid299572
"At least someone agrees with me. I`m on my phone in the middle of class so I can`t answer you yet pindi, but i did want to stateonce again that from what i read waterbat is village. He hasn`t been a great contributor, but then I simply haven`t seen scum. Just go back and read his post the first day, he`s all excited then he loses steam as it progresses like he realizes that its going to be hard work in this game to keep up his cleric persona. For a wolf it doesn`t make sense to simply drop it."
It's hard to guess if Lewwyn would make that strong statemets on wb as reverse-psychology (since wolf would not be that blunt, everyone will assume he's just buddying up villager). I think Lewwyn would be clever enough to pull a trick like this. Or if he's honestly just buddying up to a villager. He's very neutral on both Gaspar and Pind.
http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...#pid300802
Lewwyn states wolves and lynch order as:
Gaspar
Pindicator
With adding me as the third candidate, due to numerous villager reads on everyone else.
- Pind starts to attack Lewwyn heavily at night and during the day. Seems convenient to me. Changes to me immediately after novice, which I find really bizarre as he was so sure on Lewwyn. At one point he is even following me and votes waterbat, which doesn't make much sense. Because soon after he votes me because he finds Jkaen suspicious. Finally novice votes Lewwyn with Pind, me and Gaspar following.
- Gaspar wants to go Pind or Lewwyn, ends up on Lewwyn.
- Waterbat wants to vote me before pind. Thinks Lewwyn is lynchbait.
These are from Molach:
Post 725:
"Pindicator - Went for Mattimeo early, gave reasons to do so. And near lynchtime went for merovech (not wanting to vote thestick and
'not convinced' on case on bigger). At that point there were 10 minutes left and 3 more votes on bigger needed, so unclear what he would gain as a mafia with that switch."
Post 823:
"Pindicator is also suspect, I thought about him just before I saw Sarelns post voting for him and others following. So I agree with those putting pressure there."
But votes TT
Post 985:
"looks like sareln vs pindicator atm. Can't say right now which is better lynch, both are on my suspect list."
Post 1033:
Ends up voting Sareln.
"Have read through pindicators posts, and see some things that seem village. For one, he is chasing/engaging lurkers - me & waterbat both mentioned and told not to slip beyond radar."
I think Pindicator is my preferred wolf candidate today.
Pind starts off with a vote on wb, but now suddenly sees him as villager and votes me with IMO flimsy reasoning. Ended up voting Jkaen yesterday after going back and forth with the two. Also on Azza vs Waterbat day 8, starts off with suspicion on waterbat, but ultimately ends up on Azza. Same pattern seems to happen again today. General feeling is that he seems to suspect waterbat always when wb is near the block, but ends up voting alternative candidates. Same turned other way around, waterbat is on the block and makes a case on pindicator. He survives the day and has completely turned his cloak on Pind.
Gaspar&waterbat. I could see this working as well. If two wolves left, it could be good tactic to just go against each other and get the win next day. Who could imagine two wolves killing off each other at this point. So Catwalk would get night killed and me&pind would go against each other next day. This theory would probably be the most risky, so maybe not...
Or Pind & Gaspar. Waterbat has voted Gaspar and Pind has expressed suspicion on Gaspar now and earlier as well. Yet he votes me because I haven't voted today yet, voted TT&Catwalk as mayor, didn't react to Jkaen's no-response? If that would be the case, I can easily see them pushing me and waterbat on top, and basically force us to vote each other for the wolf win (they could count on that).
Parts of Lewwyn files:
Post 1201:
"I mentioned earlier that I'm not getting a good enough read on Pindicator either way. As I stated earlier, I'm not willing to base it on whether I think one action is more scummy than another. I'm willing to wait, or at least in case I'm dead, willing to have the village give him a few more days to prove his innocence before making a final judgement"
"Remember that big opening day post by Waterbat. I haven't seen a continuation of that really. Dunno yet if that's more or less suspicious. But I'm actually thinking it might be less suspicious because a villager would tire of the act... right?"
Post 1637:
"FYI Meiz, Waterbat spells my name like that half the time or more. I don't think that's a tell. However, I think the rest of the argument on Waterbat is worth investigating as an alternative to Catwalk."
Post 1805 (On day 1 Matt wagon):
"Day 1 train on him might in fact be all villagers... Or TT is a Wolf and he's played his paranoia to a T."
No mention of Pind, who was the other unknown voter.
Post 1878:
Catwalk votes Matt and Lewwyn seems really pissed off by that.
Also: "Right now I think my second choice on the day is waterbat. I'll probably talk about that a little this afternoon."
Post 1922:
Basically says that waterbat is villager.
Post 2203:
"Of everyone left, the people I trust most are novice, Meiz, waterbat and catwalk. Feels odd to say Catwalk but I simply see no way for him to be a wolf. Likewise waterbat who I examined yesterday and convinced me of his villageryness."
Again strong statements. No mention of Gaspar or Pind.
Post 3013:
"Nah, waterbat's gotta be innocent based on the rereading I did of him a few days ago. I don't see a wolf's consistency or studied affect. Instead it's much more free flowing and un-apprehensive."
Post 3017:
"I trust novice and I'm not buying into the tinfoil. Meiz I have also stated the same thing. Gaspar is someone I sparred with just two days ago but then I went after you and my suspicion has only grown so maybe I need to revisit Gaspar, that's a fair criticism. Truth be told though he's been sounding more like the Gaspar of WW games past. Didn't I talk about him being like his Perpy self earlier this game? Pindicator is such a friggin' grey area. Honestly I can't tell, either way I don't think it harms us to keep him alive while we lynch people I'm more suspicious of."
"they become obvious villagers (Catwalk, Waterbat)"
Post 3216:
"Gaspar has been all over the place for me this game. I read him really village early in the game and then soured a bit later, but I'm not unopposed to his current "research" if it materializes. Might be a good lynch just because he's an experienced wolf... but damn it usually I'm more sure of him by this point."
"Pindi is a survivor for sure. Just noticed he's the Lawyer. How appropriate."
http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...#pid299359 (for waterbat)
"I don't think its an insincere feeling you're getting from his post novice. I think its a more lackadaisical feeling. I said it before but I don't think waterbat is as focused, and thus I don't agree that he is scum."
http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...#pid299370
"Pindi is honestly still a mystery to me. I just can't get a full read. Maybe I just haven't looked hard enough. The issue for me is that I don't have anything to hold onto with him. I can't remember a post by him that made me stop and think about what he said except for one post he made back on Day 2 where he stated that the entire reason for hanging him seemed to be based on a vote switch of which could be read as either a villager or a wolf"
http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...#pid299572
"At least someone agrees with me. I`m on my phone in the middle of class so I can`t answer you yet pindi, but i did want to stateonce again that from what i read waterbat is village. He hasn`t been a great contributor, but then I simply haven`t seen scum. Just go back and read his post the first day, he`s all excited then he loses steam as it progresses like he realizes that its going to be hard work in this game to keep up his cleric persona. For a wolf it doesn`t make sense to simply drop it."
It's hard to guess if Lewwyn would make that strong statemets on wb as reverse-psychology (since wolf would not be that blunt, everyone will assume he's just buddying up villager). I think Lewwyn would be clever enough to pull a trick like this. Or if he's honestly just buddying up to a villager. He's very neutral on both Gaspar and Pind.
http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...#pid300802
Lewwyn states wolves and lynch order as:
Gaspar
Pindicator
With adding me as the third candidate, due to numerous villager reads on everyone else.
- Pind starts to attack Lewwyn heavily at night and during the day. Seems convenient to me. Changes to me immediately after novice, which I find really bizarre as he was so sure on Lewwyn. At one point he is even following me and votes waterbat, which doesn't make much sense. Because soon after he votes me because he finds Jkaen suspicious. Finally novice votes Lewwyn with Pind, me and Gaspar following.
- Gaspar wants to go Pind or Lewwyn, ends up on Lewwyn.
- Waterbat wants to vote me before pind. Thinks Lewwyn is lynchbait.
These are from Molach:
Post 725:
"Pindicator - Went for Mattimeo early, gave reasons to do so. And near lynchtime went for merovech (not wanting to vote thestick and
'not convinced' on case on bigger). At that point there were 10 minutes left and 3 more votes on bigger needed, so unclear what he would gain as a mafia with that switch."
Post 823:
"Pindicator is also suspect, I thought about him just before I saw Sarelns post voting for him and others following. So I agree with those putting pressure there."
But votes TT
Post 985:
"looks like sareln vs pindicator atm. Can't say right now which is better lynch, both are on my suspect list."
Post 1033:
Ends up voting Sareln.
"Have read through pindicators posts, and see some things that seem village. For one, he is chasing/engaging lurkers - me & waterbat both mentioned and told not to slip beyond radar."
I think Pindicator is my preferred wolf candidate today.