Crossposted with pindicator, I agree with your analysis. If you're scum I've pretty much signed away the game as I can't see myself voting for you tomorrow either. If neither one of us dies during the night I may have to reconsider, but even then it could very much be a wolf ploy.
Crossposting with Meiz, I don't think being in survival mode is an unlikely reaction for a villager who keeps putting his foot in his mouth. I agree waterbat hasn't been a very good villager (nor have I most of the game), but I think the evidence points towards Gaspar. I agree there could be a wolf on wolf waterbat who plans on changing later, but I don't think it's likely. I would very much like you to vote Gaspar, on the off chance that pindicator and Gaspar are wolves and pindicator is engaged in some strategizing. Don't think that's likely in the least, but it would suck to be stuck on the wrong target. I can also easily rationalize the bargaining with a confused and overeager villager who is fighting to not be mislynched.
waterbat, I don't think your reasoning is terrible but you didn't go about it very well. And you probably weren't the one to suggest, having a big stake in the matter.
Crossposting with Meiz, I don't think being in survival mode is an unlikely reaction for a villager who keeps putting his foot in his mouth. I agree waterbat hasn't been a very good villager (nor have I most of the game), but I think the evidence points towards Gaspar. I agree there could be a wolf on wolf waterbat who plans on changing later, but I don't think it's likely. I would very much like you to vote Gaspar, on the off chance that pindicator and Gaspar are wolves and pindicator is engaged in some strategizing. Don't think that's likely in the least, but it would suck to be stuck on the wrong target. I can also easily rationalize the bargaining with a confused and overeager villager who is fighting to not be mislynched.
waterbat, I don't think your reasoning is terrible but you didn't go about it very well. And you probably weren't the one to suggest, having a big stake in the matter.