Well this is embarrassing 
I've just done a bit of GNP investigating and since I know no-one has alphabet yet I can guess how many people have each tech:
Med . . . 128 . . 2 people
COL . . . 131 . . 3 people
Theo . . . 119 . . 0 people
Aesth . . 119 . . 0 people
Alpha . . 119 . . 0 people
Horse . . 123 . . 1 person
Iron . . . 128 . . 2 people
Metal C . 119 . . 0 people
Const . . 123 . . 1 person
So without Metal Casting you can't have Machinery or Guilds, meaning Cataphracts are miles away and Serdoa must just be building a lot of catapults. Somehow that doesn't reassure me, but at least I've only wasted a turns worth of production on spears.
I guess I'll tech horseback riding next to flank away catapults after all (although I'd prefer COL to help the economy recover) and switch to building axes and catapults of my own. Perhaps 10 cats, 10 axes and 10 Horse Archers will do? Take your time Serdoa, no rush over here...
If I'm right this time
he's got approx 15 cats, 15 axes, 15 spears already, so maybe I'll need more... How I'll produce 30 units before he arrives beats the hell out of me!

I've just done a bit of GNP investigating and since I know no-one has alphabet yet I can guess how many people have each tech:
Med . . . 128 . . 2 people
COL . . . 131 . . 3 people
Theo . . . 119 . . 0 people
Aesth . . 119 . . 0 people
Alpha . . 119 . . 0 people
Horse . . 123 . . 1 person
Iron . . . 128 . . 2 people
Metal C . 119 . . 0 people
Const . . 123 . . 1 person
So without Metal Casting you can't have Machinery or Guilds, meaning Cataphracts are miles away and Serdoa must just be building a lot of catapults. Somehow that doesn't reassure me, but at least I've only wasted a turns worth of production on spears.
I guess I'll tech horseback riding next to flank away catapults after all (although I'd prefer COL to help the economy recover) and switch to building axes and catapults of my own. Perhaps 10 cats, 10 axes and 10 Horse Archers will do? Take your time Serdoa, no rush over here...
If I'm right this time

Completed: RB Demogame - Gillette, PBEM46, Pitboss 13, Pitboss 18, Pitboss 30, Pitboss 31, Pitboss 38, Pitboss 42, Pitboss 46, Pitboss 52 (Pindicator's game), Pitboss 57
In progress: Rimworld
In progress: Rimworld