[Spoilers] Old Harry's Game

[Old Harry]

Without knowing the odds, that amount of catapult withdrawals looks like an extremely bad luck

I don't think so - I've had a quick look through the combat log so odds calculators at the ready:

So far Serdoa has
Lost a 9% battle
won a 72%
won a 100%

I won a 50%

Serdoa won a 100%
lost a 3%
lost a 5%
won a 98%

I withdrew from a 36%
and withdrew from another 36%

Serdoa lost an 11%
withdrew from a 20%
withdrew from a 28%
withdrew from a 51%
won an 81%
won an 80%
won an 85%
lost an 85%
won an 86%
won a 98%
won an 88%
won a 91%
won an 89%
won an 89%
won a 98%
won a 99%
won a 100%
won an 85%
lost a 63%
lost a 68%
won a 50%
won a 75%
won a 90%
won a 97%

I feel like that's pretty even overall, I got a couple of low-odds cat retreats, so did he.

He bombed down the defenses to the point where there were a lot of 80-90% battles, then he should win 17 out of 20 of those...