WW23: The Heart of Gold

[uberfish]

I think PB makes a pretty compelling data-argument on where the scum is, even if I don't really agree with the concept of analyzing day one voting at all.

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To me the best argument against Ryan voters is that a strong player could really see the fail there. Unfortunately, I think that's also the best argument against the Ryan non-voters.

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I buy Serdoa and uber both thinking we need to send a message on policy lynching non-contributors. I just find the lack of pressure anywhere else to be pretty peculiar. Its incredibly lazy to watch Ryan exhibit hoof-in-mouth disease, park your vote there and be done with it. Even if I had wanted to lyncrh Ryan, I would have been talking about other players in the thread in the hopes of generating some information for later.

I'm comfortable with my play since I felt we would already have enough leads to go on today from people's attitudes on the voting, which is in fact the case. Presumably, so was Serdoa. It's not like the players who voted for me went through much of a discussion process before settling on their compromise anti-Ryan vote or pushed me or anyone else to answer questions.

I agree with PB that uberfish is probably the best information lynch. If he flips scum, then it is almost certain that the 2nd scum is among the non-uberfish voters on day one. If he flips village, then I'd say its almost certain there is no more than one scum on the Ryan voters. I'm not sure any other candidate is as strong a litmus test for future information.

This is weak. I don't see how you could be "almost certain" that no one was distancing me were I to flip scum. And if I flip village, you conclude that Matt and Bigger aren't scum together... Something that is already unlikely anyway because they both voteparked Ryan early on day 1, which is against people's instincts of how scum should be played.

Gaspar, for first the awful nightkill analysis and now this. It's clear from my point of view that Serdoa was killed because scum preferred to keep anyone that was attacking for me alive. So there's good motivation for scum to post their own interpretation of the night kill in order to "show" that I could have night killed Serdoa to pre-empt this line of reasoning. I think the reason Gaspar's logic is so bad is because it's faked - he's arguing backwards from the need to arrive at the conclusion that I should be lynched.