[SPOILERS] Team EggHeads: DMOC and TeddyKGB (Now Lurker-Friendly!)

[TeddyKGB]

Will run some sims tomorrow night, then hopefully we can decide by then which route to go. As I said before, I'm leaning towards settling in place, but let's think through it first

You could think that I'm strongly pro PH and against SIP. I'm not.
Before scout move, I was like 50/50 at best. And after no visible resource revealed on the tile scout standing now, I'm like 60/40 in favor SIP. But let me be devil advocate here and find some potential in PH plant.
I'll run some more sims of PH start so we can compare and decide. Probably in 12-16 hours time frame.

I'm posting now some older notes that I did, was trying to make nice orgynized (sorry, couldn't resist) post about SIP vs PH, how I saw it. I really hope there is something usefull in this wall of text. Dont want to just delete it now. And I'm adding some fresh thoughts.

My very first argument to move on PH was: we pick a civ with bad starting techs for SIP start.
You can skip this spoiler. There is nothing on our current situation.

Myst is completely usless for us in the opening.
And while Wheel is a good expensive tech and a step to Pottery, we need techs to improve food resources first.
We have no Hunting (to start AH right away).
No Fishing (to start Wb>Worker and Hunt>AH, for example).
Not even Agri, another expensive tech(we dont have crops obv, but If we started with Agri+Fish or Agri+Hunt there could be some options). Agri(like Wheel) on a way to Pottery. One of the two our main goals in tech tree early.
No Mining either, its not a food tech obv, but its opens BW to us. And BW is another main goal in tech tree for us early, imo.

That was my first reaction after we pick Byz and before I did any PH start sims.

There was some screenshots and discussion in this thread earlier.
So we both choose Hunting>AH>Mining path and Settler at size3 after 1 worker.
Settler completed on T33(SIP) and T32(PH). So here some boring thoughts and crazy math.

We both start with worker 1st and Hunting.
While SIP start use Exp bonus right away(0/3/0 tile + center) for total 5hpt into worker, PH plant waste a turn to move and can't get Exp bonus for 3 more turn till borders expanded. So its (2/1/1(deer) + 2/2/1(center)) * 3(turns) for same total 5hpt into worker. And after that PH start can use Exp bonus: 1/2/0+2/2/1 for total 6hpt into worker

And now PH start has some troubles to keep up in techs ETA, thx to wasted turn. You can double check my micro till T32 here. PH start can complete AH on T20(2b o/f) and Mining T27(no o/f) like in SIP sim, except SIP got some big overflow each time.
SIP can't get AH on T19 unless complete Worker on T13 (1 turn slower) and then trade off DeerCamp(1 turn slower), possible slower to size3, and -1 workerturn into roads FOR PasturePigs(1 turn faster) and some hammers o/f from worker. I'll run quick sim to make sure we can't speed up Settler by 1 turn. If we can I'm like 70/30 pro SIP.
For now, lets assume we can't and SIP still goes Worker(T12) and AH(T20).

So, we can compare food and hammer output now.
Worker ready on T12 for both starts with 0h o/f(SIP) and 1h o/f(PH). And its pretty much the same city micro and absolutely the same worker actions for both sims until T32. There is some minor micro with tiles and queue changing in PH sim to get Mining and Settler on time, but nothing special.
From T13 untill time Wb finished its +1hpt for PH plant. You simed Fish netted on T37 so its total +24h for PH plant.
Thats +1 Warrior before settler and faster settler on T32 for PH plant.
Now, we skip Wb on PH obv, so its +30h for PH plant more.
I've said we'll get around +70h on T37 and there is +54h total so far.
Now I know its kinda not completely accurate, but I assumed 1f=1h for us at this point. It was wrong because our next project should be 2nd worker soonish not settler, so 1.25f=1h is more correct cause we are Exp.
To build Wb on T37 in the sim you abandon 6f/0h Pasture to work 0f/3h PH for 4 turns so I calculate it now as 24/1.25-12= +7.2h for PH plant for ~+61h total so far.
Last one, we plant city#2 one turn earlier so its like 4-6h more. Lets say +5h for PH plant for total +66h for PH plant on T37 compairing to SIP.

My math could be wrong but it feels about right after compairing sims.
Please, correct me if I did some obvious mistakes with this calculation.

Once fish connected, things will change in favor SIP.

Tech path will be, I'd guess:
SIP: BW(T48?)>Pottery(??)
PH: BW(T41?)>Fish or Agri>Pottery(??)

As I said, PH could try to stay ahead on hammers with faster set on 4->2 whip cicles.
City#3 or #4 could improve fish for PH capital to compensate beakers difference. But building Wb is -30h for PH plant, cause we already count it as profit when SIP complete Wb on T37.

Timing on Pottery could be the main factor as I see it.
Lets sim till there and compare.

There is more but I should stop typing now, or else I'll analyzing PH vs SIP start to the Liberalism time with some more crazy math.
Sorry, if this post doesn't make much sence to you.

I did original notes for myself mostly to make things clear. But as rereading this spoiler, it looks kinda messy.

tl;dr: I'm 60/40 in favor SIP right now. Lets run our sims till Pottery and compare.