Are you feeling gambly? 
It all comes down to whether we trust that we win that 95 % fight. If we do, we might as well try our luck with the other barb. If we lose that attack, barb will probably pillage the rice and then we can kill him next turn with the defender of Dunkirk.. Of course it's possible that we would lose both fights as well.. 
We still have 9 hours to scratch our heads..
It all comes down to whether we trust that we win that 95 % fight. If we do, we might as well try our luck with the other barb. If we lose that attack, barb will probably pillage the rice and then we can kill him next turn with the defender of Dunkirk.. Of course it's possible that we would lose both fights as well.. We still have 9 hours to scratch our heads..