Big turn coming up:
![[Image: PB%2013%20T99%20Suttree0000.JPG]](https://dl.dropbox.com/s/75cipkr60ji6kau/PB%2013%20T99%20Suttree0000.JPG)
One of the suttree's chariots pillaged our cows, other one approached Dunkirk.
Suttree also moved in his stack that is visible in the screenshot.
Our unpromoted spear gets 99 % odds against the chariot on the cow tile and our 2 shock axes get 76 % odds against suttree's C1 Axes.
What this means in practise is that we have ~50 % chance to win all aforementioned 3 fights. If we do that and win those battles, we might just wait one turn and clean the rest of the units next turn as our victorius axes can take the 3rd promo and bowmen + spear can clean up if required.. However, if we e.g. lose both of those 76 % fights we have no chance to clean those units and we must hope that our defenses hold until reinforcements arrive.. If we lose 1 of those 3 fights, we are unlucky and things become a bit tricky, but I think we will manage. We just have to dodge that 12 % chance where we lose both of our axes..
I think we should attack with our shock axes in any case. I don't like the idea that suttree gets the chance to test our defenses in Jamestown with 5 attackers and we have a fair chance to stop this aggression immediately.
Yeah, this is really the ancient coinflip battle that has a huge impact on our chances in this game..
I also made a sandbox run until T116 and it all looks promising, but let's handle this issue first..
EDIT: Btw, if we win those 3 battles our workers in Jamestown should probably be unmoved so that we can clean up suttree's stack next turn regardless where he moves
One of the suttree's chariots pillaged our cows, other one approached Dunkirk.
Suttree also moved in his stack that is visible in the screenshot.
Our unpromoted spear gets 99 % odds against the chariot on the cow tile and our 2 shock axes get 76 % odds against suttree's C1 Axes.
What this means in practise is that we have ~50 % chance to win all aforementioned 3 fights. If we do that and win those battles, we might just wait one turn and clean the rest of the units next turn as our victorius axes can take the 3rd promo and bowmen + spear can clean up if required.. However, if we e.g. lose both of those 76 % fights we have no chance to clean those units and we must hope that our defenses hold until reinforcements arrive.. If we lose 1 of those 3 fights, we are unlucky and things become a bit tricky, but I think we will manage. We just have to dodge that 12 % chance where we lose both of our axes..
I think we should attack with our shock axes in any case. I don't like the idea that suttree gets the chance to test our defenses in Jamestown with 5 attackers and we have a fair chance to stop this aggression immediately.
Yeah, this is really the ancient coinflip battle that has a huge impact on our chances in this game..
I also made a sandbox run until T116 and it all looks promising, but let's handle this issue first..
EDIT: Btw, if we win those 3 battles our workers in Jamestown should probably be unmoved so that we can clean up suttree's stack next turn regardless where he moves