I actually ran the sim... 20 times.. 
However, we are talking about different odds here. None of suttree's units is promoted. So at least I got 33 % odds against chariot and ~43 % odds against the axe. I used C1 Bowmen. Any idea where the difference comes?
Ok, here are the results of my sim:
3x C1 Bowman, 2x no-useful promo Bowman, 1x C1 Warrior
vs.
Axe, Chariot & Spear
We cleaned the stack 20 out of 20 times..
Our losses:
0 Bowman - 5 times
1 Bowmen - 6 times
2 Bowmen - 6 times
3 Bowmen - 3 times
My feeling is that these results are a bit on the lucky side, but 20 runs is already something..
Of course it's possible that we get terrible rolls and we don't manage it. Especially if we lose 3 first fights and one of those rolls is totally terrible.. However I think our odds of cleaning that stack are well above 90 % and more likely above 95 %.
Should I go and smash the first bowman in?
However, we are talking about different odds here. None of suttree's units is promoted. So at least I got 33 % odds against chariot and ~43 % odds against the axe. I used C1 Bowmen. Any idea where the difference comes?
Ok, here are the results of my sim:
3x C1 Bowman, 2x no-useful promo Bowman, 1x C1 Warrior
vs.
Axe, Chariot & Spear
We cleaned the stack 20 out of 20 times..
Our losses:
0 Bowman - 5 times
1 Bowmen - 6 times
2 Bowmen - 6 times
3 Bowmen - 3 times
My feeling is that these results are a bit on the lucky side, but 20 runs is already something..
Of course it's possible that we get terrible rolls and we don't manage it. Especially if we lose 3 first fights and one of those rolls is totally terrible.. However I think our odds of cleaning that stack are well above 90 % and more likely above 95 %.
Should I go and smash the first bowman in?