Hey FT, hope its not too hot and sunny for you over there. Not much happened while you were off grid, it was mostly pauses and reloads, and if it wasn't for the two runaway civs to our north and south I'd say we'd got everything under control. 
We've only got a couple of bowmen in Jamestown, but could move our stack of stuff in there at a moments notice if needed. It is generally producing a knight a turn too, but with Astronomy getting researched around about now it might be a good time to put more units in the city...
I don't think Oxford is an imminent target, I just thought some of the non-barracks cities could get started while the others keep churning out the knights, but once we have it we should use Bureau whenever we're teching and eg Nationalism when we're saving money... I can't tell if our current 100gpt unit costs are due to Pacifism, but we'll try and lose some units in two turns to improve the situation.
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On to the revised simming (and please punch me if I claim to know anything about RBmod ever again :P ):
I think we have 17 knights, a mace and two chariots to hit Barcelona and the cat stack with. On the other side we have six axes, four bowmen and a knight to attack Barca, with a mace a turn behind to cover the knight and move into the city when it's captured.
Cat Stack First:
If the cats come near enough they are our first target. To begin with I just used all our unpromoted knights then the chariots and the mace. This leaves 13 cats alive but red-lined but only two axes still living, meaning Suttree can then hit our injured stack but can't do much damage.
However I think we can do better by reducing the pool for our collateral to spread over: Shock knights attack cats over axes and our chariots will get good odds on cats injured to between 2.5 and 3.0 health. The mace also hits catapults over axes, but I think we need him unscratched to defend against spears so the plan is:
X shock knights -> unpromoted knights until the top two cats are between 2.5 and 3.0 -> the chariots -> the rest of the knights
Results:
(I only ran each sim three times)
- with three shock knights... 9,10,9 cats and 4,3,4 axe survive
- with five... 3,4,6 cats and 5,6,6 axe survive
- with seven... 0,1,2 cats and 9,7,8 axe survive
I'm a bit loath to put shock on too many knights since gunpowder is on its way, but these catapults are Suttree's best weapon (and a lot more hammers than axes), and spears will still be in abundance in Suttree's territory for a little while, so I'd suggest we use seven shock knights. After that we can promo-heal the rest and go for Barcelona and Madrid quite easily.
Barcelona First:
If he keeps the cat stack out of our reach how do we take Barcelona while keeping our knight stack healthy enough to kill the cat stack later?
Barcelona has 4 longbows and 6 spears in, but we should assume two more longbows at least. We have 6 axes and 4 bowmen to use up, so lets throw them onto the barricades first:
- 4 bows, 6 axes, 3,3,2 knights dead 12,13,10 knights left above 6 strength
- 6 axes, 4 bows, 4,5,2 knights dead 8,6,12 knights left above 6 strength
- 4 withdrawing knights, 6 axes, 4 bows, 6,6 knights dead 7,6 knights left above 6 strength
Seems obvious that we attack with the bowmen first, then Axes then knights. I assume we'll be facing differing levels of fortification, so it's hard to fully sim this out. If there is full fortification on all units we could lose five knights and be left with as few as seven above 6 health, if fortification is lacking we could get closer to three dead knights and 11 or 12 above 6 health. With 11 or 12 healthy knights we can then do in enough of the cat stack to protect our remaining knights, but it's touch and go if we end up with fewer...
Further notes
- If we need to attack a str 6 longbow F2 seems the best promo - giving about 45% odds, where C2 gives @30%
- Once they are down to about 5 C2 is better as it does more damage for the same odds of dying (all depending on fortification of course)
- In most situations it seems that C2 is almost as effective against the spears as shock, so perhaps we don't need shock?
- We're going to end up taking a lot of our promotions before battle to win this so there will be less opportunity for promo-healing than I hoped
- Suttree *should* get a great general, hopefully in Barca or somewhere southern, but more likely near Madrid to boost his stack
I'll see how well this sim matches reality tonight and run a few more sims tomorrow... This is the sandbox. Do you think there are any other possibilities?
We've only got a couple of bowmen in Jamestown, but could move our stack of stuff in there at a moments notice if needed. It is generally producing a knight a turn too, but with Astronomy getting researched around about now it might be a good time to put more units in the city...
I don't think Oxford is an imminent target, I just thought some of the non-barracks cities could get started while the others keep churning out the knights, but once we have it we should use Bureau whenever we're teching and eg Nationalism when we're saving money... I can't tell if our current 100gpt unit costs are due to Pacifism, but we'll try and lose some units in two turns to improve the situation.
---------
On to the revised simming (and please punch me if I claim to know anything about RBmod ever again :P ):
I think we have 17 knights, a mace and two chariots to hit Barcelona and the cat stack with. On the other side we have six axes, four bowmen and a knight to attack Barca, with a mace a turn behind to cover the knight and move into the city when it's captured.
Cat Stack First:
If the cats come near enough they are our first target. To begin with I just used all our unpromoted knights then the chariots and the mace. This leaves 13 cats alive but red-lined but only two axes still living, meaning Suttree can then hit our injured stack but can't do much damage.
However I think we can do better by reducing the pool for our collateral to spread over: Shock knights attack cats over axes and our chariots will get good odds on cats injured to between 2.5 and 3.0 health. The mace also hits catapults over axes, but I think we need him unscratched to defend against spears so the plan is:
X shock knights -> unpromoted knights until the top two cats are between 2.5 and 3.0 -> the chariots -> the rest of the knights
Results:
(I only ran each sim three times)
- with three shock knights... 9,10,9 cats and 4,3,4 axe survive
- with five... 3,4,6 cats and 5,6,6 axe survive
- with seven... 0,1,2 cats and 9,7,8 axe survive
I'm a bit loath to put shock on too many knights since gunpowder is on its way, but these catapults are Suttree's best weapon (and a lot more hammers than axes), and spears will still be in abundance in Suttree's territory for a little while, so I'd suggest we use seven shock knights. After that we can promo-heal the rest and go for Barcelona and Madrid quite easily.
Barcelona First:
If he keeps the cat stack out of our reach how do we take Barcelona while keeping our knight stack healthy enough to kill the cat stack later?
Barcelona has 4 longbows and 6 spears in, but we should assume two more longbows at least. We have 6 axes and 4 bowmen to use up, so lets throw them onto the barricades first:
- 4 bows, 6 axes, 3,3,2 knights dead 12,13,10 knights left above 6 strength
- 6 axes, 4 bows, 4,5,2 knights dead 8,6,12 knights left above 6 strength
- 4 withdrawing knights, 6 axes, 4 bows, 6,6 knights dead 7,6 knights left above 6 strength
Seems obvious that we attack with the bowmen first, then Axes then knights. I assume we'll be facing differing levels of fortification, so it's hard to fully sim this out. If there is full fortification on all units we could lose five knights and be left with as few as seven above 6 health, if fortification is lacking we could get closer to three dead knights and 11 or 12 above 6 health. With 11 or 12 healthy knights we can then do in enough of the cat stack to protect our remaining knights, but it's touch and go if we end up with fewer...
Further notes
- If we need to attack a str 6 longbow F2 seems the best promo - giving about 45% odds, where C2 gives @30%
- Once they are down to about 5 C2 is better as it does more damage for the same odds of dying (all depending on fortification of course)
- In most situations it seems that C2 is almost as effective against the spears as shock, so perhaps we don't need shock?
- We're going to end up taking a lot of our promotions before battle to win this so there will be less opportunity for promo-healing than I hoped
- Suttree *should* get a great general, hopefully in Barca or somewhere southern, but more likely near Madrid to boost his stack
I'll see how well this sim matches reality tonight and run a few more sims tomorrow... This is the sandbox. Do you think there are any other possibilities?
Completed: RB Demogame - Gillette, PBEM46, Pitboss 13, Pitboss 18, Pitboss 30, Pitboss 31, Pitboss 38, Pitboss 42, Pitboss 46, Pitboss 52 (Pindicator's game), Pitboss 57
In progress: Rimworld
In progress: Rimworld