Right, we don't have enough troops to take all their cities at this moment. Not sure if we should focus on a troop build-up to go ahead and try to finish them off now, or just take what we can get at the moment, and then come back to this again with a bigger tech/mfg lead later on. Part of my strategy is relying on BowAivo defending poorly, so we'll see how that pans out.
This is what I want to take:
The X's we should get in the next couple turns no problem. The ?'s are likely, but not guaranteed. The double-?'s are less likely unless I start streaming in reinforcements right away, but possible depending on how badly BowAivo defends.
The Northern Front:
If they don't reinforce Bulawayo, I will take it with Seaine to get that next promotion. I want to take kwaD with as few troops as possible. If the garrison does not change, I think that will mean 1 cat, 1 spear and 4-5 axes. That will leave me with 10-11 axes, 7 cats and a spear that can continue on to uMgung. I will leave a single axe and spear in Bulawayo as I move forward. The axe in Gov't Shutdown will complete next turn to help reinforce Bulawayo. Also, I'll send any extra axes that don't die attacking kwaD back down to defend the more important city of Bulawayo.
The Southern Front:
I panicked a bit when I saw how low my odds are here. So I actually ran some worldbuilder tests! What I found is that promoting the one axe to CR gives me 12.2% odds. As long as I get at least one hit on the defending axe, the next two can clean it up almost every time. I got at least that one hit in every test I ran, so I feel pretty comfortable. If for whatever reason BowAivo's axe defends flawlessly, I will need to call off this attack, but I don't think that will happen. I will also move my lone chariot down to this front instead of the northern front to help clean up if necessary.
Here is my first major mistake in this war. I should have roaded the tile south of the hill instead of the one north of the hill. That would have let me move my troops onto BowAivo's hill this turn to capture their worker and get the defense bonus
Anyway, that worker won't be able to escape so they'll need to delete it or else I will capture it when I take the city next turn. Also, what the heck is the worker doing roading that hill instead of farming the corn? 
Power graph:
Nothing yet from BowAivo. They played T140 in 3 minutes without a whip, so either they didn't notice my southern stack, or they didn't think it was going to move in against them. Let's see what they do when they log in next turn and see they've been attacked.
Also, I haven't been able to locate the new city BowAivo planted last turn. I am currently thinking it is here:
This is what I want to take:
The X's we should get in the next couple turns no problem. The ?'s are likely, but not guaranteed. The double-?'s are less likely unless I start streaming in reinforcements right away, but possible depending on how badly BowAivo defends.
The Northern Front:
If they don't reinforce Bulawayo, I will take it with Seaine to get that next promotion. I want to take kwaD with as few troops as possible. If the garrison does not change, I think that will mean 1 cat, 1 spear and 4-5 axes. That will leave me with 10-11 axes, 7 cats and a spear that can continue on to uMgung. I will leave a single axe and spear in Bulawayo as I move forward. The axe in Gov't Shutdown will complete next turn to help reinforce Bulawayo. Also, I'll send any extra axes that don't die attacking kwaD back down to defend the more important city of Bulawayo.
The Southern Front:
I panicked a bit when I saw how low my odds are here. So I actually ran some worldbuilder tests! What I found is that promoting the one axe to CR gives me 12.2% odds. As long as I get at least one hit on the defending axe, the next two can clean it up almost every time. I got at least that one hit in every test I ran, so I feel pretty comfortable. If for whatever reason BowAivo's axe defends flawlessly, I will need to call off this attack, but I don't think that will happen. I will also move my lone chariot down to this front instead of the northern front to help clean up if necessary.
Here is my first major mistake in this war. I should have roaded the tile south of the hill instead of the one north of the hill. That would have let me move my troops onto BowAivo's hill this turn to capture their worker and get the defense bonus
Anyway, that worker won't be able to escape so they'll need to delete it or else I will capture it when I take the city next turn. Also, what the heck is the worker doing roading that hill instead of farming the corn? Power graph:
Nothing yet from BowAivo. They played T140 in 3 minutes without a whip, so either they didn't notice my southern stack, or they didn't think it was going to move in against them. Let's see what they do when they log in next turn and see they've been attacked.
Also, I haven't been able to locate the new city BowAivo planted last turn. I am currently thinking it is here: