My reply to TT:
As for why to trust TT - I've come around on thinking he was being honest with me when I say he expected that we knew he'd order Mos-Sev. It is a much more convincing "stab" to order that. Also I don't really see better option. This way we have a shot at coming out with 2 centers if all goes as planned, which was a complete pipe dream a couple days ago. TT just replied:
So I'm not going to belabor my point to him directly since I see no value in potentially sounding condescending to him, but the problem here is that telling MJW right now is the most likely way to cause "a 2v2 that screws us all." MJW gets 2 centers either way here - either by helping Rowain or by stabbing him. All he cares about is what puts him in the best position next year.
Now that he knows Russia and I are cooperating, his motivation to help me get 2 centers so that I can kill him next is gone, especially since he now knows for sure that I lied to him in my attempt to blackmail him into helping. At that point, why not just stick with Rowain? I'm halfway expecting he may do that now. If he would've gone through with the stab, Rowain would gain 0 and I would gain 2, and MJW's interest in helping Rowain would evaporate - he would be forced to side with us. That's not really true now. So I guess I'm left to just hoping that MJW does what I want him to do, which is not really the best thing to hope in.
scooter Wrote:I'll be honest, I think telling him was a mistake, because I think if anything it may just encourage him to side with Rowain knowing that he's next. I won't bet anything meaningful on it, though, because predicting anything MJW does is an exercise in futility.
We'll see what happens, but either way, I'm moving as planned. Hoping for the best!
Thanks,
scooter - Turkey
As for why to trust TT - I've come around on thinking he was being honest with me when I say he expected that we knew he'd order Mos-Sev. It is a much more convincing "stab" to order that. Also I don't really see better option. This way we have a shot at coming out with 2 centers if all goes as planned, which was a complete pipe dream a couple days ago. TT just replied:
Twinkletoes Wrote:It might be, but at the end of the day cards needed laying on the table or we end up with a 2v2 that screws us all.
So I'm not going to belabor my point to him directly since I see no value in potentially sounding condescending to him, but the problem here is that telling MJW right now is the most likely way to cause "a 2v2 that screws us all." MJW gets 2 centers either way here - either by helping Rowain or by stabbing him. All he cares about is what puts him in the best position next year.
Now that he knows Russia and I are cooperating, his motivation to help me get 2 centers so that I can kill him next is gone, especially since he now knows for sure that I lied to him in my attempt to blackmail him into helping. At that point, why not just stick with Rowain? I'm halfway expecting he may do that now. If he would've gone through with the stab, Rowain would gain 0 and I would gain 2, and MJW's interest in helping Rowain would evaporate - he would be forced to side with us. That's not really true now. So I guess I'm left to just hoping that MJW does what I want him to do, which is not really the best thing to hope in.