Wow, 
I've got some good and bad news.
Bad news is that Mardoc's RNG luck continued (at first), good news is that this time it wasn't enough, we finally got some good rolls too and the unit trade definitely went our way as he attacked out and tried to kill our stack:
Here is a recap of what happened (from attacker's perspective):
Catapult vs. knight 2.3 %
LOSS, but he got a hit
HA vs Pike 3.8 %
LOSS, but we got a ridiculously bad roll and Pike was only one hit away from dying and therefore useless against incoming WEs
WE vs Mace 35.8 %
WIN, obviously..
WE vs Spear 32 %
LOSS, yay spear took only two hits, which knocks him out of fighting, but at least he did not die
WE vs 92 HP knight 67 %
WIN
HA vs 87 HP knight 18 %
LOSS, the HA won the first 5 rounds and was one hit away from killing our knight
LB vs 87 HP knight 9 %
LOSS, but LB got 5 hits and our knight is down to 2 HP...
LB vs 62 HP knight 22 %
LOSS, 0 hits! Is out luck changing....
LB vs 62 HP knight 22 %
LOSS, 0 hits! Two flawless wins in a row!
Axe vs 62 HP knight 18 %
LOSS, 0 hits! This knight deserves a medal, monument, statue, whatever..
LB vs 62 HP knight 22 %
LOSS, 3 hits! Our heroic knights gets his 4th win in a row, but goes down to 17 HP.. But also 17 XP and it can take a 4th promo next turn..
LB vs 56 HP knight 57 %
LOSS! Already the 2nd time we win a fight where we don't have odds in this war...
LB vs 92 HP HA 49 %
LOSS, 0 hits!
LB vs 92 HP HA 49 %
LOSS
And now I think Mardoc ran out of gas or he realized that next there are 5 cats as top defenders and sacking more units for killing those isn't really attractive. (I don't think he had anything but a wounded WE and 2 spears left and they don't even get odds against cats) TBH, he should have really skipped at least the last 2 fights. Well, actually the whole battle..
Summary:
Mardoc got a ridiculously good start and first 7 battles went more or less perfectly to him. This actually put him in position where he could have killed a good number of units. However, thank god our luck changed and our awesome knight simply crushed the incoming units and as an icing on the cake we also won the final 50/50 battles.
I don't think Mardoc simmed this or thought about this really carefully. In order to really hurt us he would have needed constant good RNG luck through all those 14 battles. I'm very relieved that it did not happen as the catastrophic rolls in the beginning almost cost us dearly. I obviously haven't simmed this myself, but I think the base case is that Mardoc does not have odds in any of those 14 fights (our pike should have beaten the HA handily and had odds against the WE that murdered our knight). for taking a losing fight did not get rewarded this time.
So what next, Mardoc's WEs are wounded and will be easy kills next turn. Our stack is very wounded, but 4 knight and 2 HAs can promo-heal and then we of course have our great medic in position. Now that Mardoc suicided 7 LBs I see Infrared falling in the near future as well. We probably won't have quite enough power to take it next turn, but at latest when some reinforcements arrive and we get to heal our units I think we should be able to able to march forward.
Finally some good news!
I've got some good and bad news.
Bad news is that Mardoc's RNG luck continued (at first), good news is that this time it wasn't enough, we finally got some good rolls too and the unit trade definitely went our way as he attacked out and tried to kill our stack:
Here is a recap of what happened (from attacker's perspective):
Catapult vs. knight 2.3 %
LOSS, but he got a hit
HA vs Pike 3.8 %
LOSS, but we got a ridiculously bad roll and Pike was only one hit away from dying and therefore useless against incoming WEs
WE vs Mace 35.8 %
WIN, obviously..
WE vs Spear 32 %
LOSS, yay spear took only two hits, which knocks him out of fighting, but at least he did not die
WE vs 92 HP knight 67 %
WIN
HA vs 87 HP knight 18 %
LOSS, the HA won the first 5 rounds and was one hit away from killing our knight
LB vs 87 HP knight 9 %
LOSS, but LB got 5 hits and our knight is down to 2 HP...
LB vs 62 HP knight 22 %
LOSS, 0 hits! Is out luck changing....
LB vs 62 HP knight 22 %
LOSS, 0 hits! Two flawless wins in a row!
Axe vs 62 HP knight 18 %
LOSS, 0 hits! This knight deserves a medal, monument, statue, whatever..
LB vs 62 HP knight 22 %
LOSS, 3 hits! Our heroic knights gets his 4th win in a row, but goes down to 17 HP.. But also 17 XP and it can take a 4th promo next turn..
LB vs 56 HP knight 57 %
LOSS! Already the 2nd time we win a fight where we don't have odds in this war...
LB vs 92 HP HA 49 %
LOSS, 0 hits!
LB vs 92 HP HA 49 %
LOSS
And now I think Mardoc ran out of gas or he realized that next there are 5 cats as top defenders and sacking more units for killing those isn't really attractive. (I don't think he had anything but a wounded WE and 2 spears left and they don't even get odds against cats) TBH, he should have really skipped at least the last 2 fights. Well, actually the whole battle..
Summary:
Mardoc got a ridiculously good start and first 7 battles went more or less perfectly to him. This actually put him in position where he could have killed a good number of units. However, thank god our luck changed and our awesome knight simply crushed the incoming units and as an icing on the cake we also won the final 50/50 battles.
I don't think Mardoc simmed this or thought about this really carefully. In order to really hurt us he would have needed constant good RNG luck through all those 14 battles. I'm very relieved that it did not happen as the catastrophic rolls in the beginning almost cost us dearly. I obviously haven't simmed this myself, but I think the base case is that Mardoc does not have odds in any of those 14 fights (our pike should have beaten the HA handily and had odds against the WE that murdered our knight).
for taking a losing fight did not get rewarded this time.So what next, Mardoc's WEs are wounded and will be easy kills next turn. Our stack is very wounded, but 4 knight and 2 HAs can promo-heal and then we of course have our great medic in position. Now that Mardoc suicided 7 LBs I see Infrared falling in the near future as well. We probably won't have quite enough power to take it next turn, but at latest when some reinforcements arrive and we get to heal our units I think we should be able to able to march forward.
Finally some good news!