[Spoilers] Old Human Tourist: Empress of Azteca

[Mardoc]

Above is the full log
- Winning 4 out of 5 was already on the lucky side, but the real blow was the way those 4 won. Your winning WEs did not only win they took very little hits by doing it
- Overall you killed 7 knights and 1 HA with 6 War Elephants. I can guarantee you that if you sim the above scenario the average result is way below that what you got

Ah, I'd forgotten about the luck on the defense on your turn. Yeah, that was definitely above average.

Don't remember this. I probably intended to sacrifice the WE and clean up the survivor with a reinforcement, then got lucky.

There were other units inside the city, which makes this scenario unlikely.

It's quite possible I was over-optimistic and then lucky.

- Getting those 2 wins at 36 % and 67 % was obviously already nice

Yes, that should have been one kill and one redline, on average.

- Your HA getting our pike down to 10 HP or better happens only 1 time out of 20. (there is a 40 % chance that your HA gets 0/1 hit only in) Try that attack in sandbox again and you will see that in many cases that pike will kill multiple HAs or the WE, which got one of your 2 kills if you decide to send that in instead

Sandbox again? There was no sandbox. Just gut feel.

10 HP or better was not required, though - anything below 30 would have sufficed to make the pike irrelevant. The way binomials work, I would expect that to be about 30-40% likely, and at most require 2 HA instead of 1.

- Your HA gets 5 hits or better against our knight only 1 out of 4 times
- Your LB gets 5 hits or better against our knight only 1 out of 6 times

Again, I didn't need 5 hits or better on these. Just had to knock them below the cats - probably 3 hits would have sufficed. I guess, technically, that was luck - but it was luck on the rounds where it didn't matter.

Combine the above together and you realize that you got a really lucky start and it should not have come down to situation where we need to really for our wounded knight getting couple flawless wins at 78-82 % odds (happens 1 out of 8-9 times)

Lucky start, yes. But I would have gotten to the same point without nearly as much luck. From my perspective, it didn't matter if your knights had 10 hp or 30 hp at this point in the battle. I got my luck when it didn't really matter, and then you got the luck when it did.

Perhaps I was only likely to get five-six kills instead of the eight I expected. But two was still ridiculous. That alone evens out the war elephant luck.

Also, what the heck do you mean '1 out of 8-9 times?' For each flawless win? Making three in a row more like 1 in 500?

Yeah, this war would not have started unless we would not have gotten such a nice opportunity to kill your stack. You did not know that we were so well positioned to attack, so I think it would also be fair to say that this was not a huge mistake in decision-making sense, just a risk that happened to backfire.

Risk? But the only upside was pain for Azza! There was no way I was going to get any land out of my rage. Maybe if your army was elsewhere, it would have been five turns later that my army died, inside a revolting city or outside the gates of the next one.

And sure, knight vs. axe is good odds, but you'd still have lost some units if you had to kill his units instead of me doing it for you.

Even if you chose to ignore me, that attack was never a good idea. Just a catharsis.

I remember this, obviously that was not good, but at that point Infrared had already fallen so it was always going to be difficult to pick good battles after that.

At least I should have left the units in the city to soak collateral and let the longbows have a better chance.

And I'm sure you know it, but this gives a pretty good idea of how highly you think of me.

On the contrary. Part of the reason for that counterattack we're arguing was a firm belief on my part that you would never give me a better chance. I knew it was a big risk with variable payback, but it still seemed better than fighting on your terms.

I still can't see what I could have done better, anyway - just sat there and waited for you to walk to the city, sacrifice three cats and slaughter my army anyway? It wouldn't even have bought me any time compared to how it turned out!

Combat calculator is always a good idea. I checked some of the math already above for us.

Yes. And I'm not willing to put in the time it would take to gather evidence to argue any further.