The situation is very interesting at the moment. A LOT will depend on whether Krill+Novice are willing to make a move. I think we + pindi have now given them the opportunity to improve their position on their continent and do something about dtay. I doubt that they will get a better chance in this game, you don't get such open dogpile invitations in a no-diplo game too often.
1. Dtay has lost a significant part of his army, and has certainly still some troops in the pindi continent
2. Meanwhile we are forking ~15 cities and tying ~50-80 defenders in those coastal cities (numbers are very rough, if I have energy and time to log in I might do some actual counting)
--> I think Krovice has a real chance to move in with their cannons and cut dtay's main continent in half.
That would lead into situation where dtay can't afford to build a big enough navy and we can control the waters. This will give pindicator a real chance to take back the shrine city and maybe even force dtay out of his continent. If Krovice joins we obviously upgrade our tempo as well and actually move in and capture a part of former CH land. To be honest, I'm fairly confident that this dogpile would actually work and dtay would lose half of his cities in a controlled way without taking too many risks. Krovice would then be in position to take rest of dtay's core at latest when their land advantage off-sets dtay's current tech advantage.
If Krovice does not join in we probably keep dancing with dtay for a while and try to give pindicator some time to take the shrine back. As said before, our own position/land is good enough that we have a fair chance of winning against dtay if he does not succeed in further land acquisitions.
However, in the end it does not really do much good for us or dtay to fight 1 vs 1 (pindicator will become more and more backward in the future even if he gets some cities back) ---> so our fight with dtay will end. Assuming both sides evaluate the situation semi-rationally we start looking opportunities elsewhere while maintaining some sort of cold war with of course hurts us both and benefits BGN, but is still less costly than mutual suicide.
So those were my quick thoughts, haven't had time to really analyze all the angles, but there is definitely some room for
1. Dtay has lost a significant part of his army, and has certainly still some troops in the pindi continent
2. Meanwhile we are forking ~15 cities and tying ~50-80 defenders in those coastal cities (numbers are very rough, if I have energy and time to log in I might do some actual counting)
--> I think Krovice has a real chance to move in with their cannons and cut dtay's main continent in half.
That would lead into situation where dtay can't afford to build a big enough navy and we can control the waters. This will give pindicator a real chance to take back the shrine city and maybe even force dtay out of his continent. If Krovice joins we obviously upgrade our tempo as well and actually move in and capture a part of former CH land. To be honest, I'm fairly confident that this dogpile would actually work and dtay would lose half of his cities in a controlled way without taking too many risks. Krovice would then be in position to take rest of dtay's core at latest when their land advantage off-sets dtay's current tech advantage.
If Krovice does not join in we probably keep dancing with dtay for a while and try to give pindicator some time to take the shrine back. As said before, our own position/land is good enough that we have a fair chance of winning against dtay if he does not succeed in further land acquisitions.
However, in the end it does not really do much good for us or dtay to fight 1 vs 1 (pindicator will become more and more backward in the future even if he gets some cities back) ---> so our fight with dtay will end. Assuming both sides evaluate the situation semi-rationally we start looking opportunities elsewhere while maintaining some sort of cold war with of course hurts us both and benefits BGN, but is still less costly than mutual suicide.
So those were my quick thoughts, haven't had time to really analyze all the angles, but there is definitely some room for