If TBS thought we intended an attack on his stack on Lashing, which we would in that case obviously have projected to be successful, his best move would be to move the stack away. However, if he were to believe our (initial) objective was his stack, I don't know why he would believe we would not bring enough frigates to bombard the defences down in one turn, or allow him to opportunity to escape. I don't know if what I just wrote made sense, but in short, thinking about it, it seems to me he would either believe his stack was in danger, and move it away, or see through the deception, and move his stack away. And, to be honest, if he can see us coming a mile away, I don't know why he wouldn't just reinforce all his culture cities, or move his stack into a better zone-defence position - i.e., it might be best to prepare for an old-fashioned, highly-suboptimal, defensive field engagement/culture-slog upon landing. Alternatively, what are the defences in Glamdrul and Fort Tahn? Or what about a conventional attack from that green player in the east's land? The two-movers in TBS's stack are three or four turns from Elensefar (though he might see such an attack coming, too). I dunno, just throwing out ideas.
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[Spoilers] Old Human Tourist: Empress of Azteca
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