(May 20th, 2015, 10:10)Old Harry Wrote:
Serpent Ford is his new culture target city, he's only got two religions and I can't see any missionaries being built. That means it'll only get +250%. And without many cottages the city is going to max out at 450 cpt.
Hmm, I wonder if that's really the strongest candidate. The city only starts at 1000 culture, which is of course good for us. Although, I searched quickly and did not find an amazing alternative.
I assume you got to 450 cpt roughly like this:
(95 commerce + 17 other culture) * 3.5 + 58 hammers per turn converted to culture = 450
- If that would be a constant rate from now on TBS/Yuri would only need 28 turns from here to reach 14k culture in SF (eot268).
- However, some hammers need to be converted into academies and academies take still time to build. That pushes in my quick model the victory date back by 2 turns (eot270)
- However vol.2, 450 cpt also assumes that TBS/Yuri can maintain 100 % slider constantly, which on it's own isn't sustainable and they would need to go into heavy wealth-building mode.
- 90 % sustainable slider means that SF is ready eot272
- 80 % sustainable slider would mean eot275
Our current rough estimation for winning date is that we arrive at space eot273 so it's a close case (that 273 timing already isn't easy for us).
Btw, TBS's 2nd culture city Weldyn currently shows that it will be legendary eot274. The lower slider will impact the city as well, but Weldyn has some speeding up potential. E.g. TBS/Yuri isn't in bureaucracy at the moment.
Quote:
Our previous estimate was eight Great Artists meaning he needs 18 000 culture in SF. Hornshark (the NE city) is starving to produce an artist this turn, presumably to try and pop another to get him nine GAs, meaning he needs 14 000 culture. That much culture will be about 31 turns (which is about when we're due to land our spaceship) but I wonder how quick the 4200 GPP great artist will come? I'm estimating he'll make 112 GPP next turn, so that'll take 38 turns...
I did some math here as well and your 112 GPP next turn is correct I think, but that comes with minor food surplus so the break-even GPP rate over time is higher. I did a small starvation model for the city and I think you can get 4200 GPP together in 31 turns (eot271). Are we sure that 4200 GPP is the limit that needs to be reached though? TBS is currently aiming at 2800 GPP and will produce 6 GPs before a possible new one, right (he has 2 GAs saved). I could not arrive at 4200 GPP with any calculation. Does someone now for certain how GPP limits will behave from here on? (If the limit is 4000 GPP, GA can be birthed eot269, if the limit is 4500, then it's eot273). TBS might be able to speed things up by one turn by allowing NE city to reach a lower limit while another city, which is behind in the turn order waits just below the limit and goes into full starvation mode when the NE city reaches the limit. Well that's what I would do :P
Of course the great artist also needs to travel to SF as well. Another basic question that OH surely knows; Does airlifting cost the movement points? If not TBS surely rush-buys an airport in NE city, otherwise there will be one turn needed for travelling before the culture bomb can take place.
I'm a bit hopeful that the NE city won't start a new Great Artist though. If it does Yuri definitely made a significant (not game-changing) micro mistake last turn: When you starve, starve properly, working random food resources instead of additional artists does not do you any good.
Well, as a conclusion of the above: I would not be too confident of our ability to win the game before eot273. It's turn 241 and that timing already assumes that we can get all the techs we need + build the ship in 23 turns. Of course the model I'm basing our own victory date isn't completely accurate and there are also external things affecting our timing. Thus, the new culture victory timing of TBS might be annoyingly competitive and I fear we might be forced to deal with him again, maybe not by razing a culture city, but bombarding tiles, forcing him to build units instead of wealth or something like that --> There is an annoying scenario where we need to spend time far away from our core and we leave us vulnerable to BGN when he realizes that he won't win the space race without hurting us.
Hmmm, I guess the next 1-3 turns will include healing our troops anyways so we can see a bit more about how the situation develops + hopefully test / get answer to the technical questions above.
Wall of text :P