(June 14th, 2015, 22:49)Ichabod Wrote: Turns played.
Save:
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/2124...0.Civ5Save
Report to come tomorrow (it's very late here). Timmy is up. If you play it, I left some workers unmoved, because they finished what they were building and it was not obvious about what to do next. Cities are micro'ed to the best of my ability/judgement for the unhappy period we are going through. When we are happy again, should probably change the tiles.
See it, play Monday or Tuesday night depending on discussion. Not too many tiles to switch I think, but its only a few turns - 4 until the first lux sale ends, or possibly earlier if Ragusa finishes their dyes.
Rough plans:
Sailing -> Philo
Cap goes to caravan next, then library
Devotion to library after worker, I think.
keep one worker at two old cities, 2 each for roading/connecting resources at new cities.
Prophet will pop soon. Beliefs are <thread title> and pilgramage right? I'm not sure pilgramage will help much - we won't be able to spend any faith on foreign spread I don't think, maybe we get some from the Theology wonders. But agree its still probably the best founder belief.
EDIT: Doesn't matter for gameplay, but what religion name do we want?
Two big decisions I see
1. Do we to try Oracle instead of NC first? I won't get to Philo, but this affects how much I prioritize libraries during my set. If we want NC ASAP, I think I may swap Red (Piety) to library now and eventually buy its granary. Think Orange-Divine is the stronger and won't need the rushbuy to finish both library and granary close to when Red finishes just its library.
2. What to do with trade routes? with above builds I will have two available mid-set (the original one to devotion expires in 5 turns). The standard play would be two food caravans to the two new cities. The other option I've been plugging would be one to Monaco to their quest, coupled with a 250 gold gift for alliance. Now for those numbers.
Food caravan is 3 FPT for 30 turns. I think it becomes 3.5 when we hit classicial era in about 15 turns, so say ~97 total.
The Monaco idea would raise our influence to 75 (50 quest, 20 gold, 5 already from pledge), so 15 turns alliance
Their culture (+6 at allied would advance the tradition finisher some 6 or 7 turns.
I'm guessing our civwide food surplus then might around 27 - it's 19 now (except for unhappiness), will have more granaries and food+ tiles improved at the new cities. That gets "free " food of 27 * .15 = 4.05/turn from the policy. I'm struggling a bit with quantifying the aqueducts but believe they basically profit you 50% of your food surplus; store up to 40% of the next growth and with the steep thresholds in civ5 that's about 50% of the current growth if not more. So I'm not weedy, the overall benefit of the tradition finisher earlier is (# turns) * (food surplus with Trad - food surplus without Trad). In this case something like (6 turns) * ((1.5 * 27 *1.15) - 27) = 117 food. 90 food in a baby city might be competitive with 117 food spread across multiple cities, since the small cities grow so much faster. The 90 food from the food caravan starts sooner, but also ends later, in fact I think both distributions of food in the 30-turn caravan window are roughly centered/symmetrical. Feel free to throw stones at any/all of the numbers or assumptions in the calculation

I'm not trying to quantify having earlier Piety from the monaco culture. Obviously allying them takes the 250 gold upfront, we'd get back about 150 of that over the 30 turns of the trade deal, and also get their furs for 15 turns probably.
One final question: Once warrior healed, is it worth risk moving him towards the camp Monaco wants cleared? He isn't strong enough to do it but might be able to steal the credit with Rome doing the work. We could improve the east side tiles of Divine first as the west would be the only side vulnerable to barbs.