It has been a really long time since I last posted or managed to log in. Today was my last day at work and summer holidays began so let's quickly provide some input..
Our victory date. I updated the model and we are still staring at the same finish date for space techs: eot263. Possibly we can squeeze it already eot262, but I did not analyze things throughly enough: Can we maintain 100 % tech rate, what will our speed be after GA, etc? Well, it's eot262 or 263. --> Assuming the later date, I think we can manage so that the last part finishes eot266 and our theoretical victory date would be eot276.
BGN: OH has better info than me: Is it possible that BGN is sandbagging multiple techs? I doubt. Thus BGN is far enough behind that he can't beat our space timing with peaceful play.
TBS on the other hand.. It seems he has given up on artist in Hornshark, which means that he is heading for 18k culture in Basilisk Cave (8 artists right?). We did not have vision of the city currently so I used the last pic OH posted for analysis purposes. In my quick model, which assumed more or less stagnant development + artist starvation at the in Basilisk I had TBS reaching the 18k culture in Basilisk eot274. I'm sure there are ways to optimize that date, (moving palace etc.) so I think the conclusion is that TBS should be able to reach legendary status comfortably before we reach space. However, if he rolls the 16 % non-artist this turn that should buy us enough time so that we simply focus on our own thing and try to beat him peacefully..
Unless TBS gets an unlucky roll and we can focus on our things I guess the big picture options are these:
1. Kill TBS adventure - OH uses everything we have to destroy one of the culture cities. Let's leave all our borders empty, take every single unit. Probably use couple turns worth of commerce in upgrades and rushed builds (mass transports). I guess we need to aim at having a TBS culture city killed by t270 (in 15 turns) so the mobilization needs to start next turn, it might be even too late already. The game plan is practically to throw everything, gamble on nobody taking our empty cities and count on us beating BGN's space timing with a major handicap
2. Wait if TBS screws up somehow and/or try some low-odd cute plays. Practically it means playing our own game and waiting for the game to end. Maybe TBS manages to do something stupid or my analyses are off and we grab a close win
3. Just concede.
What we choose from above options really strongly depends on OH's willingness to commit his RL time. The option 1 is simply terribly time consuming, I'm talking 5-10 hour turns if we want to organize an efficient attack that actually is fast and strong enough that we can push through. I'm terribly sorry for OH that I haven't been more around during the last couple of weeks. OH has been (as always) a hero with playing these monster turns (to my defense that was our deal in the beginning, the later 125 turns are just a tiny bit more time consuming than the first 125... :P
Well, let's hope that TBS gets the 1 out of 6 roll (non-artist out of Elen) and we can maybe grab a lower effort victory..
And as final thoughts here is a random post I've posted a while ago in our chat, because I'm too tired/busy to post a full text about the current meta situation and things that go in my head..
Reg above, nothing against BGN, but overall I feel that TBS is simply more capable of solid civ play including the ability to micro a great culture victory. However, I think BGN has done the real heavy-lifting in this game and got himself into a strong position and thus would maybe be a more deserving winner than TBS, who meanwhile is going for a backdoor victory while benefiting from extremely high tech costs and maximum distance from us + BGN. Nothing against TBS's culture attempt though, that's what I would try in his position too and it seems that he is really pulling that off unless we (read OH) puts in a major effort.
Our victory date. I updated the model and we are still staring at the same finish date for space techs: eot263. Possibly we can squeeze it already eot262, but I did not analyze things throughly enough: Can we maintain 100 % tech rate, what will our speed be after GA, etc? Well, it's eot262 or 263. --> Assuming the later date, I think we can manage so that the last part finishes eot266 and our theoretical victory date would be eot276.
BGN: OH has better info than me: Is it possible that BGN is sandbagging multiple techs? I doubt. Thus BGN is far enough behind that he can't beat our space timing with peaceful play.
TBS on the other hand.. It seems he has given up on artist in Hornshark, which means that he is heading for 18k culture in Basilisk Cave (8 artists right?). We did not have vision of the city currently so I used the last pic OH posted for analysis purposes. In my quick model, which assumed more or less stagnant development + artist starvation at the in Basilisk I had TBS reaching the 18k culture in Basilisk eot274. I'm sure there are ways to optimize that date, (moving palace etc.) so I think the conclusion is that TBS should be able to reach legendary status comfortably before we reach space. However, if he rolls the 16 % non-artist this turn that should buy us enough time so that we simply focus on our own thing and try to beat him peacefully..
Unless TBS gets an unlucky roll and we can focus on our things I guess the big picture options are these:
1. Kill TBS adventure - OH uses everything we have to destroy one of the culture cities. Let's leave all our borders empty, take every single unit. Probably use couple turns worth of commerce in upgrades and rushed builds (mass transports). I guess we need to aim at having a TBS culture city killed by t270 (in 15 turns) so the mobilization needs to start next turn, it might be even too late already. The game plan is practically to throw everything, gamble on nobody taking our empty cities and count on us beating BGN's space timing with a major handicap
2. Wait if TBS screws up somehow and/or try some low-odd cute plays. Practically it means playing our own game and waiting for the game to end. Maybe TBS manages to do something stupid or my analyses are off and we grab a close win
3. Just concede.
What we choose from above options really strongly depends on OH's willingness to commit his RL time. The option 1 is simply terribly time consuming, I'm talking 5-10 hour turns if we want to organize an efficient attack that actually is fast and strong enough that we can push through. I'm terribly sorry for OH that I haven't been more around during the last couple of weeks. OH has been (as always) a hero with playing these monster turns (to my defense that was our deal in the beginning, the later 125 turns are just a tiny bit more time consuming than the first 125... :P
Well, let's hope that TBS gets the 1 out of 6 roll (non-artist out of Elen) and we can maybe grab a lower effort victory..
And as final thoughts here is a random post I've posted a while ago in our chat, because I'm too tired/busy to post a full text about the current meta situation and things that go in my head..
Quote:I'm afraid that TBS won't let us take MoM and due to Basilisk being able to burn through 10+ efficient artists turns, just some sea food pillaging etc. won't be efficient enough. Unless we can beat TBS's culture timing with our space attempt or he rolls that wrong great person our options are to concede or organize a final march a la oledavy (PB6). I think I would be ok, with going into uni suffrage and just buying boats and units everywhere and just sending everything in 1 pile to TBS. TBS is a better player than BGN, but that culture victory is still pretty cheap --> If BGN back-stabs us and rolls through our empty cities that's maybe even a more fair outcome of this game.. Hmmm, I need to think about that. Anyways, it would require a major RL effort from you, but playing with a sole purpouse of destroying a single city in 15 turns, but being allowed to use every resource we have might be a fun adventure?
Reg above, nothing against BGN, but overall I feel that TBS is simply more capable of solid civ play including the ability to micro a great culture victory. However, I think BGN has done the real heavy-lifting in this game and got himself into a strong position and thus would maybe be a more deserving winner than TBS, who meanwhile is going for a backdoor victory while benefiting from extremely high tech costs and maximum distance from us + BGN. Nothing against TBS's culture attempt though, that's what I would try in his position too and it seems that he is really pulling that off unless we (read OH) puts in a major effort.