ilios, i'll wait until dazed responds but i agree with a lot of what you say.
i think what the turns look like (assuming no horse in the BFC) is
T22 min 02/90; warrior 10/15 food 02/24 pasture 4t
T23 min 13/90; warrior 13/15 food 04/24
T24 min 24/90; warrior 01/15 food 06/24
T25 min 35/90; warrior 04/15 food 08/24 4/1/2 2/1/1 2/1/0
T26 min 47/90; warrior 07/15 food 12/24
T27 min 59/90; warrior 10/15 food 16/24 farm 5t
T28 min 71/90; warrior 13/15 food 20/24
T29 min 83/90; settler 01/100 food 00/26 4/1/2 2/1/1 2/1/0 2/1/0
T30 BW 05/216; settler 09/100
T31 BW 18/216; settler 17/100; 4/1/2 4/1/0 2/1/1 2/1/0
T32 BW 31/216; settler 27/100
T33 BW 44/216; settler 37/100 mine 4t
T34 BW 57/216; settler 47/100
T35 BW 70/216; settler 57/100
T36 BW 83/216; settler 67/100 4/1/2 4/1/0 1/3/1 2/1/1
T37 BW 97/216; settler 78/100 farm 4t (1t put in on T21)
T38 BW 111/216 settler 89/100
T39 BW 125/216 settler done
worker 1 T21
AH T22
warrior2 T24
warrior3 T29
mining T30
settler1 T39
edited to add: the next 8 turns also work out beautifully,
T39 BW 125/216 warrior 00/15 4/1/2 4/1/0 1/3/1 2/1/1
T40 BW 139/216 warrior 06/15 food 05/26 4/1/2 4/1/0 3/0/1 2/1/1
T41 BW 153/216 warrior 09/15 food 12/26 go to city 2
T42 BW 167/216 warrior 12/15 food 19/26
T43 BW 181/216 warrior 00/15 food 00/28 4/1/2 4/1/0 2/1/0 3/0/1 2/1/1 (the other option is to go straight to worker or settler here)
T44 BW 195/216 warrior 04/15 food 07/28
T45 BW 209/216 warrior 08/15 food 14/28
T46 TW 07/108 warrior 12/15 food 21/28
T47 warrior done, size 5 hit.
then things get really speculative...
i think what the turns look like (assuming no horse in the BFC) is
T22 min 02/90; warrior 10/15 food 02/24 pasture 4t
T23 min 13/90; warrior 13/15 food 04/24
T24 min 24/90; warrior 01/15 food 06/24
T25 min 35/90; warrior 04/15 food 08/24 4/1/2 2/1/1 2/1/0
T26 min 47/90; warrior 07/15 food 12/24
T27 min 59/90; warrior 10/15 food 16/24 farm 5t
T28 min 71/90; warrior 13/15 food 20/24
T29 min 83/90; settler 01/100 food 00/26 4/1/2 2/1/1 2/1/0 2/1/0
T30 BW 05/216; settler 09/100
T31 BW 18/216; settler 17/100; 4/1/2 4/1/0 2/1/1 2/1/0
T32 BW 31/216; settler 27/100
T33 BW 44/216; settler 37/100 mine 4t
T34 BW 57/216; settler 47/100
T35 BW 70/216; settler 57/100
T36 BW 83/216; settler 67/100 4/1/2 4/1/0 1/3/1 2/1/1
T37 BW 97/216; settler 78/100 farm 4t (1t put in on T21)
T38 BW 111/216 settler 89/100
T39 BW 125/216 settler done
worker 1 T21
AH T22
warrior2 T24
warrior3 T29
mining T30
settler1 T39
edited to add: the next 8 turns also work out beautifully,
T39 BW 125/216 warrior 00/15 4/1/2 4/1/0 1/3/1 2/1/1
T40 BW 139/216 warrior 06/15 food 05/26 4/1/2 4/1/0 3/0/1 2/1/1
T41 BW 153/216 warrior 09/15 food 12/26 go to city 2
T42 BW 167/216 warrior 12/15 food 19/26
T43 BW 181/216 warrior 00/15 food 00/28 4/1/2 4/1/0 2/1/0 3/0/1 2/1/1 (the other option is to go straight to worker or settler here)
T44 BW 195/216 warrior 04/15 food 07/28
T45 BW 209/216 warrior 08/15 food 14/28
T46 TW 07/108 warrior 12/15 food 21/28
T47 warrior done, size 5 hit.
then things get really speculative...