For the leaders it was an easier choice. We may have mentioned that we want a Spiritual leader, and there are ten of them out there. We'd also be happy with a combination of PRO/EXP/IMP/AGG/ORG (another ten out there). IND is the weakest trait for us on a map where we hope our neighbours will build us some wonders and we expect commerce to be more of a bottle-neck than production (forges). We'd probably still take it with SPI though.
With two new leaders I believe we have 65% chance of getting a SPI leader or two of PRO/EXP/IMP/AGG/ORG on the next round. (We'd take 20 of the 50 remaining leaders. So our odds with the next pick is:
20/50 + 20/49 - ((20/50)*(19/49)) = 65% - is that right?)
Although presumably the leaders in the PRO/EXP/IMP/AGG/ORG pool will have a lower rate of getting discarded, while SPI leaders are more likely to get ditched, so who knows what the real odds are...
With two new leaders I believe we have 65% chance of getting a SPI leader or two of PRO/EXP/IMP/AGG/ORG on the next round. (We'd take 20 of the 50 remaining leaders. So our odds with the next pick is:
20/50 + 20/49 - ((20/50)*(19/49)) = 65% - is that right?)
Although presumably the leaders in the PRO/EXP/IMP/AGG/ORG pool will have a lower rate of getting discarded, while SPI leaders are more likely to get ditched, so who knows what the real odds are...
Completed: RB Demogame - Gillette, PBEM46, Pitboss 13, Pitboss 18, Pitboss 30, Pitboss 31, Pitboss 38, Pitboss 42, Pitboss 46, Pitboss 52 (Pindicator's game), Pitboss 57
In progress: Rimworld
In progress: Rimworld