(May 16th, 2018, 16:47)Zalson Wrote: Do you think you could expound on your sim? Does it also include the worst-case scenario that you tongue-in-cheek indicated of the waters full of OT4E triremes and Toku cat attack on T102?
I guess what I'm really hoping is that in addition to a +40 simulation, you also simulate the near-term moves of your neighbors to consider possible counter-punches to their punches. And then you also simulate their reaction to your reaction to their reaction, etc etc.
Nope, we're planning this in the hope of perfect behaviour from our neighbours, which clearly won't happen (see report below) but things are so fluid with all the different relationships (is Toku really fighting Elkad seriously? Is OT still fighting GJ?) that it's not worth losing sleep over what'll happen in 20 turns. It's bad enough panicking every ten turns as it is... There are enough micro and macro decisions to get on with without including those variants.
We do try to leave ourselves as flexible as possible but we're really hoping we can surf through the next thirty turns without attracting any more problems. Even then I don't see us catching the leaders.

Turn 93
Bad news. Toku has sailing and has an archer on the island. Hopefully the settler is a couple of turns behind, but there's no way of knowing just yet.
We'll offer him a split of the island (we settle for copper and he goes for sheep) and see how he reacts. If he offers the same deal back or accepts then we're best mates (until Astronomy). If not then we're going to have a problem getting trade routes at currency. (If he accepts and loses his copper that'll be pretty funny...)
Meanwhile we see an opportunity to get that great general we need...
Imm vs warrior - 98%... WIN (3 hits!)
The great general is born in Civ and will head toward ED to settle t95 and get us some 5XP units.
I offer straight peace to try to trick Elkad into accepting, then follow up with this as an apology.
Demos and power.
Completed: RB Demogame - Gillette, PBEM46, Pitboss 13, Pitboss 18, Pitboss 30, Pitboss 31, Pitboss 38, Pitboss 42, Pitboss 46, Pitboss 52 (Pindicator's game), Pitboss 57
In progress: Rimworld
In progress: Rimworld