So, game 5 results...
Game 6 prediction :
I think my reading of the game was mostly correct, but it went disastrously bad for my picks 
: Bismarck/Asoka, FTD Napoleon, Domination.
First to die was a gamble.
I think it's roughly 30% chance Hatty, 30% Nappy, 25% Shaka, 15% Charlie.
I chose the unpopular option out of my top two picks... and lost.
I had the last three leaders standing correctly, but you need to pick two, hey.
I eliminated Charlie because he was a contender for first to die, while the other two were not.
I picked Asoka second because, while he's a stronger leader than Bismarck, he needed a few more things to go his way to come on top. Plus, in case Hatty pulled off her cultural victory, he was the most likely to finish second IMO.
Well... chose wrongly there too.
Finally, Asoka and Charlie staying pleased with one another, thus preventing a conflict that would have led to domination, that was unlikely (see below) to say the least, but well, it happened.
I believe there were a few freaks occurences (ie, if we'd run alternate histories for that game, they'd be pretty unlikely to be repeated) :
- Bismarck doing that bad at the start.
I mean, you don't expect him to expand well, or to be an early leader... but c'mon.
Managing to grab the gems spot... and placing his city in the exact spot that would allow another civ to contest culturally all the good tiles, while preventing him from squeezing another city in his territory ?
Not researching the Wheel for 100 turns ?
That led to a belated and failed first war vs Napoleon, and down the road, to be too late to stop Asoka.
- Asoka founding his religion in his capital.
I think it led to a lot more culture pressure on Hatty's southern city (east of her horse city), which might contribute to explaining her DOW.
Ironically, if Asoka's second city had been his Holy City, it would have put culture pressure on Hatty's core cities, but since those were equally culturally strong, that wouldn't have led to border tension.
- Asoka not attaking Napoleon.
You might think "he's a peaceful leader, that's normal"... But even peaceful leaders, once they've been on the warpath, tend to DOW their weak and hated enemies. Or even not so weak : cf. Hatty.
That's significant, because if Asoka had captured French cities, that would have built up border tension with Charlie, and dropped their relations from Pleased to Cautious.
As such, their cultures mainly overlapped near Charlie's Holy city, ie his strongest city culturally, hence very little border tension.
- And the big one : Hatty DOW'ing Asoka !
I did mention in my predictions that in order to do really well, Asoka would need Hatty to resist the early assaults (which she did), but to later crumble so he could conquer her territory from her killer.
I didn't mean that she'd offer herself as a sacrifice !
That changed the game dynamics, since he got the territory, without prying it from Shaka/Nappy/Charlie's grasp, and thus could stop there without being involved in a war that would have led to further conquests and conflicts.
Definitely a game I'd like to see "alternate histories" for.
: Bismarck/Asoka, FTD Napoleon, Domination.First to die was a gamble.
I think it's roughly 30% chance Hatty, 30% Nappy, 25% Shaka, 15% Charlie.
I chose the unpopular option out of my top two picks... and lost.
I had the last three leaders standing correctly, but you need to pick two, hey.
I eliminated Charlie because he was a contender for first to die, while the other two were not.
I picked Asoka second because, while he's a stronger leader than Bismarck, he needed a few more things to go his way to come on top. Plus, in case Hatty pulled off her cultural victory, he was the most likely to finish second IMO.
Well... chose wrongly there too.
Finally, Asoka and Charlie staying pleased with one another, thus preventing a conflict that would have led to domination, that was unlikely (see below) to say the least, but well, it happened.
I believe there were a few freaks occurences (ie, if we'd run alternate histories for that game, they'd be pretty unlikely to be repeated) :
- Bismarck doing that bad at the start.
I mean, you don't expect him to expand well, or to be an early leader... but c'mon.
Managing to grab the gems spot... and placing his city in the exact spot that would allow another civ to contest culturally all the good tiles, while preventing him from squeezing another city in his territory ?
Not researching the Wheel for 100 turns ?
That led to a belated and failed first war vs Napoleon, and down the road, to be too late to stop Asoka.
- Asoka founding his religion in his capital.
I think it led to a lot more culture pressure on Hatty's southern city (east of her horse city), which might contribute to explaining her DOW.
Ironically, if Asoka's second city had been his Holy City, it would have put culture pressure on Hatty's core cities, but since those were equally culturally strong, that wouldn't have led to border tension.
- Asoka not attaking Napoleon.
You might think "he's a peaceful leader, that's normal"... But even peaceful leaders, once they've been on the warpath, tend to DOW their weak and hated enemies. Or even not so weak : cf. Hatty.
That's significant, because if Asoka had captured French cities, that would have built up border tension with Charlie, and dropped their relations from Pleased to Cautious.
As such, their cultures mainly overlapped near Charlie's Holy city, ie his strongest city culturally, hence very little border tension.
- And the big one : Hatty DOW'ing Asoka !
I did mention in my predictions that in order to do really well, Asoka would need Hatty to resist the early assaults (which she did), but to later crumble so he could conquer her territory from her killer.
I didn't mean that she'd offer herself as a sacrifice !
That changed the game dynamics, since he got the territory, without prying it from Shaka/Nappy/Charlie's grasp, and thus could stop there without being involved in a war that would have led to further conquests and conflicts.
Definitely a game I'd like to see "alternate histories" for.
Game 6 prediction :
My prediction for game 6 is that 88% of the entrants will have Huyna Capac Winner, Lincoln FTD. 