I wasn't able to get in my prediction all week so only just now got it in. Glad this competition is so open with predictions! Spoilered mine below.
Winner: Gilgamesh
Runner Up: Mao Zedong
First to Die: Lincoln
Total Number of Wars: 12
Victory Type: Spaceship
End Date: Turn 333
Boy, it is hard to NOT pick Huanya Capac with his impressive track record of success. But let's look at the map for a moment: If it was any other leader, we would be saying Huanya is doomed! He has almost no room to expand and could easily be hemmed in to 3 worthwhile cities and 1-2 tundra ala Shaka and Ragnar, with Creative Gilgamesh and likely to be religious founder Montezuma to culturally crush him. Every neighbor except poor sweet hapless Lincoln is highly aggressive wnd would be willing to wardec him despite shared peace weight.
On top of that, the diplomatic situation for him is pretty horrible. Correct me if I am wrong, but turn order is alphabetical as I recall in how Sulla set it up, so Boudica is going to found a religion most likely (2nd city could change times). Montezuma will almost certainly go for another. But Huanya ALSO likes his religion and starts with Mysticism. It is highly likely Huanya turns himself into a religious pariah in some way and causes Boudica or Montezuma to declare, especially since Monty will declare on anyone for any reason already. I think Huanya is going to be hemmed in and cut down, be it from being dragged down in pointless wars to flatout being conquered.
By comparison, Gilgamesh is likely to ride an ally's religion and is the most likely to get a lot from Lincoln's inevitable demise. He doesn't have as much expansion room as Boudica, but he still has a lot particularly due to Cultural. My prediction is Gilgamesh expanding outwards, culturally crushing the area, killing Lincoln and snowballing from there. Montezuma, Boudica and Huanya all drag themselves down in wars. Whoever founds Gilgamesh's religion will be buddy-buddy with him while the rest are cut down.
On that note, look at the starting tech differences this game! Gilgamesh's Agriculture/Wheel into Mining is perfect for his start. He is going to get wet corn up quickly, get mines up quickly and road his resources. Poor Mao's amazing Agriculture/Mining is going to waste but his capital is bananas so hey. Neither Boudica nor Montezuma can hook up any resources and are both beelining Meditation, they are going to get an incredibly slow start off which opens room for someone like Gilgamesh, Mao or Huanya to get ahead too. Huanya is avoiding very first religion (tho if he goes Wheel -> Polytheism, he beats the loser of Boudica/Montezuma to it) and doing solid, Lincoln and Augustus also doing as expected. Gilgamesh's start seems the most explosive here.
I didn't talk about the other half of the continent because it seems obvious. Augustus is gonna wonder spam with Stone, he doesn't have the easiest Praetorian iron, Mao is going to get to 1v1 him and conquer him. I think Gilgamesh ends up with a larger empire and wins but I flip-flopped a lot on 1st/2nd order, feels very up in the air (Mao is probably "safer"). And it isn't like Gilgamesh has scored poorly: He's only one point out from a Pool Two leader (and with shaka's elimination could take his or Pericles' spot. Same with Boudica, actually.)
Lincoln just seems destined to be FTD. His diplomatic situation is Season One Gandhi-esque. If he and Mao had swapped spots, I would actually give him and Augustus good odds (they tech in peace while the religiously different warmongers drag each other down), but that's not the case. Someone else COULD die first but Lincoln seems by far the favorite.
I don't think whoever wins will end up with enough land area to win (probably 3 survivors or 2 survivors with roughly 60/40 or equal territory), so spaceship it is. I've generally been overshooting on the war count and I feel we'll get wars with people crumbling fast, so I brought it down to 12 (can't go TOO low with Monty). Pretty average finish date.
Runner Up: Mao Zedong
First to Die: Lincoln
Total Number of Wars: 12
Victory Type: Spaceship
End Date: Turn 333
Boy, it is hard to NOT pick Huanya Capac with his impressive track record of success. But let's look at the map for a moment: If it was any other leader, we would be saying Huanya is doomed! He has almost no room to expand and could easily be hemmed in to 3 worthwhile cities and 1-2 tundra ala Shaka and Ragnar, with Creative Gilgamesh and likely to be religious founder Montezuma to culturally crush him. Every neighbor except poor sweet hapless Lincoln is highly aggressive wnd would be willing to wardec him despite shared peace weight.
On top of that, the diplomatic situation for him is pretty horrible. Correct me if I am wrong, but turn order is alphabetical as I recall in how Sulla set it up, so Boudica is going to found a religion most likely (2nd city could change times). Montezuma will almost certainly go for another. But Huanya ALSO likes his religion and starts with Mysticism. It is highly likely Huanya turns himself into a religious pariah in some way and causes Boudica or Montezuma to declare, especially since Monty will declare on anyone for any reason already. I think Huanya is going to be hemmed in and cut down, be it from being dragged down in pointless wars to flatout being conquered.
By comparison, Gilgamesh is likely to ride an ally's religion and is the most likely to get a lot from Lincoln's inevitable demise. He doesn't have as much expansion room as Boudica, but he still has a lot particularly due to Cultural. My prediction is Gilgamesh expanding outwards, culturally crushing the area, killing Lincoln and snowballing from there. Montezuma, Boudica and Huanya all drag themselves down in wars. Whoever founds Gilgamesh's religion will be buddy-buddy with him while the rest are cut down.
On that note, look at the starting tech differences this game! Gilgamesh's Agriculture/Wheel into Mining is perfect for his start. He is going to get wet corn up quickly, get mines up quickly and road his resources. Poor Mao's amazing Agriculture/Mining is going to waste but his capital is bananas so hey. Neither Boudica nor Montezuma can hook up any resources and are both beelining Meditation, they are going to get an incredibly slow start off which opens room for someone like Gilgamesh, Mao or Huanya to get ahead too. Huanya is avoiding very first religion (tho if he goes Wheel -> Polytheism, he beats the loser of Boudica/Montezuma to it) and doing solid, Lincoln and Augustus also doing as expected. Gilgamesh's start seems the most explosive here.
I didn't talk about the other half of the continent because it seems obvious. Augustus is gonna wonder spam with Stone, he doesn't have the easiest Praetorian iron, Mao is going to get to 1v1 him and conquer him. I think Gilgamesh ends up with a larger empire and wins but I flip-flopped a lot on 1st/2nd order, feels very up in the air (Mao is probably "safer"). And it isn't like Gilgamesh has scored poorly: He's only one point out from a Pool Two leader (and with shaka's elimination could take his or Pericles' spot. Same with Boudica, actually.)
Lincoln just seems destined to be FTD. His diplomatic situation is Season One Gandhi-esque. If he and Mao had swapped spots, I would actually give him and Augustus good odds (they tech in peace while the religiously different warmongers drag each other down), but that's not the case. Someone else COULD die first but Lincoln seems by far the favorite.
I don't think whoever wins will end up with enough land area to win (probably 3 survivors or 2 survivors with roughly 60/40 or equal territory), so spaceship it is. I've generally been overshooting on the war count and I feel we'll get wars with people crumbling fast, so I brought it down to 12 (can't go TOO low with Monty). Pretty average finish date.