Game 8 predictions :
Stalin
He's in a bit of a rough spot, with enemies on all sides : Darius, Washington, Isabella.
I suppose that his supporters might prefer the term "opportunities".
His best chance would be to focus on Washington and somehow prevail in a timely fashion. It could happen, so Stalin doing well and becoming dominant is a real possibility. But he's also at a high risk of dying, and could even be first to die.
I don't think he's got a good shot at winning, though : he essentially shares enemies with Willem, so Stalin doing well would almost certainly ensure Willem's victory.
Cyrus
He really drew the short stick here.
To the north, icy wastes.
To the south, jungle and Mongolia.
To the east, Dutch culture.
His best shot would be to conquer Dutch territory... but he can't plot at pleased, and since his peace weight is nearly identical to Willem's, his hands are tied.
There's a possibility his first two cities miss his copper, which could end up being snatched by Mongolia. Were that to happen, he could be first to die, and the rest of the field in big trouble.
But most likely, he'll spend his early and mid-game capturing barb cities all over the place, and warring with Mongolia.
We could also see our first "long distance wars" : since he might be starved for targets, he could declare on Isabella or even Washington !
So I don't think he's got a real shot at this one.
He could be a late bloomer and finish second, though.
Darius
The Austria-Hungary of this game.
Between Genghis and Stalin, he's already in a tough neighbourhood.
It gets worse : if somebody can beat Willem to the second religion, that's him. And if he doesn't, he shares a river with Isabella, so he'll end up Christian. And owing to peaceweight considerations, he'll beat her as Willem's worst enemy.
So he's surrounded by three enemies... and thus a favourite, if not the favourite, for first to die.
But here's the thing : Willem will also have to deal with Isabella, Stalin with Washington, and Genghis with Cyrus. And Darius has access to early metals and Immortals, so he won't be a push-over.
So if he survives, he could do extremely well, to the point that I think he's the second most likely to win the game.
I don't think that he and Willem can survive both to the end.
Genghis Khan
He'll most probably spend his early game alternating ineffective wars between Darius and Cyrus, progressively growing into irrelevance, and die sometime during the mid-game.
He could even be first to die if the other contenders to that title do better than expected.
But...
As noted earlier, there's a possibility that Cyrus proves extremely weak in the beginning. Should Genghis take advantage, we could see a dangerous snowball forming. And contrary to Stalin, I think a dominant Genghis would stomp out remorlessly a Ducth cultural attempt.
So I'd say he has a better shot than Stalin at winning the game, but a much lower chance of finishing second.
Isabella
I don't think that a repeat of last year's performance is in play here.
For starters, I'm almost positive she'll pull a Justinian and found her Holy City in the tundra.
She'll be squeezed in the west by Willem, in the south by Stalin.
So she'll probably stay on 4-5 cities, locked in wonder-building mode (that she'll lose to Willem), chasing after religions (that she'll lose to Willem).
She'll be fighting Willem a lot, and lose in the end.
Her best chance would be to take part in a dogpile against Stalin, to gain more territory.
Along with Darius, she's my top pick for first to die.
And I'd say she's the least likely of the lot to survive to the end of the game, let alone do well.
And even if she unexpectedly did well, her allies (Washington most certainly, Darius if he doesn't self-found a religion) would be likely to do better than her.
Washington
He has a sheltered start, with decent land (if a bit on the dry side), access to early metals, and room to grow to 8-9 cities.
His game plan is simple : kill Stalin, grow from there.
I think their inevitable confrontation is an even match : Stalin has ultimately access to better land (although some of it is jungly) and is a better AI, but Washington will have allies (Darius and Isabella).
Should he prevail, he'd be in good shape to finish second.
I don't really see him as winning though : too prone to signing peace.
He might be first to die if he bungles his early expansion and succumbs to Stalin early, but that wouldn't be my first pick.
One of Stalin or Washington is going to die, though, that's for sure.
Willem
This guy is a weaker version of Huyna Capac : no Industrious trait to make for his wonder-building addiction, and while Huyna Capac might ignore military techs too long, this guy almost certainly will. He might even stop teching before rifling !
But this game has some aspects that should work very well for him.
As already mentionned, he has a perfect neighbour with Cyrus.
He also has the best second city spot, with an early Stone ressource.
He should found the second religion. If not, he'll almost certainly go for Monotheism.
An early masonry would be good for him : Stonehenge would kickstart one of his three legendary cities and provide prophets for his numerous shrines, Great Wall would shelter him from barbarian invasions to which he'd be particularly exposed otherwise.
His enemies are going to be Isabella (who should be weaker, and facing Stalin too) and Darius (who'll have to contend with Genghis and Stalin as well).
All in all, those should be expansion opportunities more than actual threats.
He should be an early game leader, and stay so until at least the mid-game. Then he'll pull the trigger on a cultural win attempt...
I think he'll prevail in three cases :
- He absorbs the most of Isabella and Darius and becomes the dominant AI.
- He gets to 9-12 cities while the rest of the worlds remains unresolved, with several AIs still competing.
- One AI becomes dominant but fails to attack him in time.
He's only got room for 5-6 decent or half-decent cities, though, so he'll have to gain territory somehow.
And while he'd better research rifling before pulling the trigger, he should stay well clear of Assembly Line : his land lacks health ressources, he runs the risk of starving his cities to the ground !
In conclusion, this should be a very stressful and frustrating game !
If you have Willem as your favourite, expect to be raging at your screen as he gets torn apart by a civ two tech eras behind, because he's carefully avoided researching anything that could give him a tech edge.
Or be ready to facepalm hard enough to leave an imprint for days as he techs to Mass Media... and builds the UN when his opponents are friendly towards one another !
If you don't have Willem as your pick... expect to stare in bewilderment as your civ of choice is running around with massive armies of cavs, while Willem cruises to a cultural win with longbows lining his city walls.
tldr;
One of Darius or Willem will do well and win the game. Advantage Willem, though.
One of Stalin or Washington should do well and finish second. Maybe.
He's in a bit of a rough spot, with enemies on all sides : Darius, Washington, Isabella.
I suppose that his supporters might prefer the term "opportunities".
His best chance would be to focus on Washington and somehow prevail in a timely fashion. It could happen, so Stalin doing well and becoming dominant is a real possibility. But he's also at a high risk of dying, and could even be first to die.
I don't think he's got a good shot at winning, though : he essentially shares enemies with Willem, so Stalin doing well would almost certainly ensure Willem's victory.
Cyrus
He really drew the short stick here.
To the north, icy wastes.
To the south, jungle and Mongolia.
To the east, Dutch culture.
His best shot would be to conquer Dutch territory... but he can't plot at pleased, and since his peace weight is nearly identical to Willem's, his hands are tied.
There's a possibility his first two cities miss his copper, which could end up being snatched by Mongolia. Were that to happen, he could be first to die, and the rest of the field in big trouble.
But most likely, he'll spend his early and mid-game capturing barb cities all over the place, and warring with Mongolia.
We could also see our first "long distance wars" : since he might be starved for targets, he could declare on Isabella or even Washington !
So I don't think he's got a real shot at this one.
He could be a late bloomer and finish second, though.
Darius
The Austria-Hungary of this game.
Between Genghis and Stalin, he's already in a tough neighbourhood.
It gets worse : if somebody can beat Willem to the second religion, that's him. And if he doesn't, he shares a river with Isabella, so he'll end up Christian. And owing to peaceweight considerations, he'll beat her as Willem's worst enemy.
So he's surrounded by three enemies... and thus a favourite, if not the favourite, for first to die.
But here's the thing : Willem will also have to deal with Isabella, Stalin with Washington, and Genghis with Cyrus. And Darius has access to early metals and Immortals, so he won't be a push-over.
So if he survives, he could do extremely well, to the point that I think he's the second most likely to win the game.
I don't think that he and Willem can survive both to the end.
Genghis Khan
He'll most probably spend his early game alternating ineffective wars between Darius and Cyrus, progressively growing into irrelevance, and die sometime during the mid-game.
He could even be first to die if the other contenders to that title do better than expected.
But...
As noted earlier, there's a possibility that Cyrus proves extremely weak in the beginning. Should Genghis take advantage, we could see a dangerous snowball forming. And contrary to Stalin, I think a dominant Genghis would stomp out remorlessly a Ducth cultural attempt.
So I'd say he has a better shot than Stalin at winning the game, but a much lower chance of finishing second.
Isabella
I don't think that a repeat of last year's performance is in play here.
For starters, I'm almost positive she'll pull a Justinian and found her Holy City in the tundra.
She'll be squeezed in the west by Willem, in the south by Stalin.
So she'll probably stay on 4-5 cities, locked in wonder-building mode (that she'll lose to Willem), chasing after religions (that she'll lose to Willem).
She'll be fighting Willem a lot, and lose in the end.
Her best chance would be to take part in a dogpile against Stalin, to gain more territory.
Along with Darius, she's my top pick for first to die.
And I'd say she's the least likely of the lot to survive to the end of the game, let alone do well.
And even if she unexpectedly did well, her allies (Washington most certainly, Darius if he doesn't self-found a religion) would be likely to do better than her.
Washington
He has a sheltered start, with decent land (if a bit on the dry side), access to early metals, and room to grow to 8-9 cities.
His game plan is simple : kill Stalin, grow from there.
I think their inevitable confrontation is an even match : Stalin has ultimately access to better land (although some of it is jungly) and is a better AI, but Washington will have allies (Darius and Isabella).
Should he prevail, he'd be in good shape to finish second.
I don't really see him as winning though : too prone to signing peace.
He might be first to die if he bungles his early expansion and succumbs to Stalin early, but that wouldn't be my first pick.
One of Stalin or Washington is going to die, though, that's for sure.
Willem
This guy is a weaker version of Huyna Capac : no Industrious trait to make for his wonder-building addiction, and while Huyna Capac might ignore military techs too long, this guy almost certainly will. He might even stop teching before rifling !
But this game has some aspects that should work very well for him.
As already mentionned, he has a perfect neighbour with Cyrus.
He also has the best second city spot, with an early Stone ressource.
He should found the second religion. If not, he'll almost certainly go for Monotheism.
An early masonry would be good for him : Stonehenge would kickstart one of his three legendary cities and provide prophets for his numerous shrines, Great Wall would shelter him from barbarian invasions to which he'd be particularly exposed otherwise.
His enemies are going to be Isabella (who should be weaker, and facing Stalin too) and Darius (who'll have to contend with Genghis and Stalin as well).
All in all, those should be expansion opportunities more than actual threats.
He should be an early game leader, and stay so until at least the mid-game. Then he'll pull the trigger on a cultural win attempt...
I think he'll prevail in three cases :
- He absorbs the most of Isabella and Darius and becomes the dominant AI.
- He gets to 9-12 cities while the rest of the worlds remains unresolved, with several AIs still competing.
- One AI becomes dominant but fails to attack him in time.
He's only got room for 5-6 decent or half-decent cities, though, so he'll have to gain territory somehow.
And while he'd better research rifling before pulling the trigger, he should stay well clear of Assembly Line : his land lacks health ressources, he runs the risk of starving his cities to the ground !
In conclusion, this should be a very stressful and frustrating game !
If you have Willem as your favourite, expect to be raging at your screen as he gets torn apart by a civ two tech eras behind, because he's carefully avoided researching anything that could give him a tech edge.
Or be ready to facepalm hard enough to leave an imprint for days as he techs to Mass Media... and builds the UN when his opponents are friendly towards one another !
If you don't have Willem as your pick... expect to stare in bewilderment as your civ of choice is running around with massive armies of cavs, while Willem cruises to a cultural win with longbows lining his city walls.
tldr;
One of Darius or Willem will do well and win the game. Advantage Willem, though.
One of Stalin or Washington should do well and finish second. Maybe.