Took me until now to actually make my predictions sadly. Pretty hard game to predict this time!
Winner: Isabella
Runner Up: Darius I
First to Die: Stalin
Total Wars: 12
Victory Type: Domination
Victory Date: T315
Man, Washington's start is quite nice, but Washington is so bad I just can't believe in him. Stalin and Willem both do not start start out with easy access to copper, with Stalin in particular almost certainly lacking it unless Darius or Washington truly screw up. Cyrus could also end up on the outside looking in when it comes to copper, but has a much more realistic source to compete with Genghis (who could end up copperless). Darius, Isablla and Washington should all end up assuredly copperified.
I don't believe in Willem at all, who was totally useless except last season and hates Rifling. Stalin is a great AI, but the lack of copper hurts his early snowball, and by god does he have an awful diplomatic situation! Darius and Washington will both hate him while Isabella could very easily become a horrible enemy thanks to religion and isn't all that inclined to like him anyway (2 vs. 6 peace weight). And all three of those are the ones that will almost certainly start with copper. I quite like Cyrus as a leader, but his land is kind of squeezed and he doesn't have ideal neighbors (nobody close to easily conquer), and he could very easily get whacked by Genghis if he doesn't get copper fast. Genghis has a lush capital but a lot of jungle + some desert nearby which the AI struggles with, the worst starting tech combo (and liklely to avoid Mysticism like the plague) AND could easily crazy himself to death.
Honestly, I really love Isabella and Darius' starts. Darius has Agriculture/Hunting, so he will improve his food resource ASAP along with Ivory for happiness even if other parts of his capital aren't the fastest and get Silks + Wines for great happiness. Nearby copper and strong city locations. Isabella has triple seafood when she starts with Fishing, a river for religious spread and so much good territory around her, and she has lots of options for potential zealot enemies, in particular Willem could found a minority religion.
Honestly, I'm going with a pretty crazy prediction but here's my read on the game: Stalin is going to be first to die. He's going to lack copper and so even when / if he gets Iron he will behind in military size and he is going to be surrounded by enemies. Isabella is going to snowball off of him and/or willem dying and get religious allies in Darius and maybe even Washington. Genghis ties up Cyrus and one eats the other, but is eventually taken out by the combined Isabella team. Darius rides along this to 2nd, I'm not sure if Domination or Spaceship (Isabella might end up close to Domination but unwilling to declare war due to Pleased even if she conquers all of her non-religious allies), but Domination feels plausible thanks to Free Religion. Maybe I should pick Washington 2nd due to that (Darius' favorite civic is Free Religion) but I just...I can't believe in him. Domination also hedges my bets if Stalin, Cyrus or Genghis end up winning.
I do think this will be a somewhat faster victory no matter what: If Willem or Darius win peacefully, they will do so by blitzing the tech tree, everyone else will be doing faster conquest. Number of wars might seem low for a Domination victory, but I think there's a lot more "go to war and stay at war" this game, especially with no AP. I was originally gonna go with 11 but w/e.
One thing's for sure: I'm either going to score a lot and make up a lot of ground this game or just kind of get a few points for victory condition/time/war and otherwise flop.
Runner Up: Darius I
First to Die: Stalin
Total Wars: 12
Victory Type: Domination
Victory Date: T315
Man, Washington's start is quite nice, but Washington is so bad I just can't believe in him. Stalin and Willem both do not start start out with easy access to copper, with Stalin in particular almost certainly lacking it unless Darius or Washington truly screw up. Cyrus could also end up on the outside looking in when it comes to copper, but has a much more realistic source to compete with Genghis (who could end up copperless). Darius, Isablla and Washington should all end up assuredly copperified.
I don't believe in Willem at all, who was totally useless except last season and hates Rifling. Stalin is a great AI, but the lack of copper hurts his early snowball, and by god does he have an awful diplomatic situation! Darius and Washington will both hate him while Isabella could very easily become a horrible enemy thanks to religion and isn't all that inclined to like him anyway (2 vs. 6 peace weight). And all three of those are the ones that will almost certainly start with copper. I quite like Cyrus as a leader, but his land is kind of squeezed and he doesn't have ideal neighbors (nobody close to easily conquer), and he could very easily get whacked by Genghis if he doesn't get copper fast. Genghis has a lush capital but a lot of jungle + some desert nearby which the AI struggles with, the worst starting tech combo (and liklely to avoid Mysticism like the plague) AND could easily crazy himself to death.
Honestly, I really love Isabella and Darius' starts. Darius has Agriculture/Hunting, so he will improve his food resource ASAP along with Ivory for happiness even if other parts of his capital aren't the fastest and get Silks + Wines for great happiness. Nearby copper and strong city locations. Isabella has triple seafood when she starts with Fishing, a river for religious spread and so much good territory around her, and she has lots of options for potential zealot enemies, in particular Willem could found a minority religion.
Honestly, I'm going with a pretty crazy prediction but here's my read on the game: Stalin is going to be first to die. He's going to lack copper and so even when / if he gets Iron he will behind in military size and he is going to be surrounded by enemies. Isabella is going to snowball off of him and/or willem dying and get religious allies in Darius and maybe even Washington. Genghis ties up Cyrus and one eats the other, but is eventually taken out by the combined Isabella team. Darius rides along this to 2nd, I'm not sure if Domination or Spaceship (Isabella might end up close to Domination but unwilling to declare war due to Pleased even if she conquers all of her non-religious allies), but Domination feels plausible thanks to Free Religion. Maybe I should pick Washington 2nd due to that (Darius' favorite civic is Free Religion) but I just...I can't believe in him. Domination also hedges my bets if Stalin, Cyrus or Genghis end up winning.
I do think this will be a somewhat faster victory no matter what: If Willem or Darius win peacefully, they will do so by blitzing the tech tree, everyone else will be doing faster conquest. Number of wars might seem low for a Domination victory, but I think there's a lot more "go to war and stay at war" this game, especially with no AP. I was originally gonna go with 11 but w/e.
One thing's for sure: I'm either going to score a lot and make up a lot of ground this game or just kind of get a few points for victory condition/time/war and otherwise flop.