Civ AI Survivor: Season Five

[Kuro]

It took me pretty long to get a submission in this week (I got a Nintendo Switch and have been hardcore playing it), but I did submit one (with predictions below).

Unrelated to the predicting, I will say I hope the Finals match this year is not 100% mirrored. It actually can be pretty imbalanced in a weird way (for example if everyone starts with a Deer or fishing resource it tilts a lot towards leaders with Hunting or Fishing, everyone 100% starting with unit resources neuters aggressive civs and this year especially TBH doesn't match the rest of the season), since the settling patterns end up totally mirrored at the start it can end up screwy / squeeze people in, and I think how various AI do with different starts is part of the measurement of being a good AI / the game so to speak.

Anyway, predictions.

Winner: Louis
2nd Place: Charlemagne
First to Die: Pacal II
Total Number of Wars: 13
Victory Type: Spaceship
Victory Date: T366

Washington's got a killer starting spot, but everything makes me imagine he will squander it, in particular the Stone makes me think he will wonder build rather than expand (bad for him) and almost everyone except Charlie will hate him. Now if Charlie and him end up on the same religion, that could actually bode very well for both of them, but the fact everyone else in this game is likely to either be religious or Alexander means they will all come in conflict a lot so I am more concerned for Charlie's religious diplo. Pacal's start is solid but I think his diplo situation is bad, he's going to likely have other religious zealouts against him AND he has both Alexander and Louis nearby who are likely to wardec him regardless of peaceweight and woe if either of them get an opposing religion. Alexander has no copper, so he might just end up ineffectually dragging down Pacal or Charlemagne (IMO more likely Pacal will that border tension).

Ultimately, I actually think Louis is the most likely to win. His start is pretty good: the wet Rice will be instantly hooked up due to Agriculture + The wheel, as soon as he gets mining he will get Silver for bigger cities and strong early commerce (early Gems/Gold/Silver are great for the AI since it loves to worry to or above the happy cap and willwork the tiles so much). He also has a lot of room to expand naturally. While this IS jungle-y, the Silver at the start will help out a lot and once it gets cut down the AI is good with jungles. Louis' biggest weakness is the Stone poison pill that might cause him to just never expand and die, but he at least is also Industrious so he can chew through those wonders quickly.

2nd place is really hard and I think basically everyone is viable. I ended up going with Charlemagne for a few reasons. First off, I do really think he is one of the best or better AI in this group, surrounded by Washington (very weak) and Alexander (traditionally incompetent) who even lacks copper. Charlemagne is not going to die early and can easily conquer either one or both of them to get a good position. He is also the only Imperialistic leader here, so he could end up with a stronger land grab than expected. In particular I can easily see Washington expanding slowly while building wonders (FYI, another downside for Washington: He's likely to build Stone wonders than lose the races to Stone + Industrious Louis) and Charlemagne taking unexpected land. Washington could also expand more north or towards Saladin and free up room for him.

I actually would not be surprised if Pacal is First to Die here. There's a pretty strong chance he is dogpiled by Alexander and Louis at some point, he could even be dogpiled by Washington + someone or backstabbed declaring on Washington. I was going to say "But given Washington's diplo position, I still pick him", but like...look at the map. There's a huge amount of land between him and the super low peace-weights, so low border tension and much harder to invade. Charlemagne will actually like him (6 vs. 8 peaceweight) and Saladin can easily spread his religiion to him and even if he dos not is much less pre-disposed to hate him (4 vs. 8), if nothing else Washington could be 1v1'd and win. So I am going to be spicy bold and pick PACAL first to die, with the belief he will be dogpiled based on religion, proximity, simple Alexander aggressiveness or all of the above.

This game seems highly probable to be beset by lots of conflict and people dragging each other down, so a late victory seems a lot more likely to an early one (esp if Financial Pacal dies), and I've upped my war count a bit too. Religious diplo probably gives us a situation where people will not win Domination because they won't attack for the last percent or otherwise have shared war bonuses or the like, so a lot spaceship it is, although I feel culture is on the table for Louis. In fact, honestly, it is very possible I should pick Culture if I am picking Louis. But he could also easily go to space, culture is a bit fluky, and also if I am wrong on Louis winning NONE of these other civs will go for Cultural so it is a bit of a hedge.