(August 2nd, 2020, 19:17)Kuro Wrote: Gonna post Playoff Game One thoughts and my reasoning behind a major event in that game.
That's a good analysis, and a good explanation of why it happened. 
That said... I remain convinced that the Louis-Saladin conflict is more likely in general: more extensive border (in this game, Louis getting the barb city instead of Saladin reduced the potential border overlap for instance), greater peaceweight difference, different religions, Saladin attacking first...
We'll see when I get to replay that one.
I'd say my main prediction, ie that this game was largely unpredictable, was confirmed.
But mainly, I believe we got a series of lower probability events, which, combined, led to a pretty unlikely outcome.
High probability early events that did happen:
- Alexander ending up with no metal (I called it, although the way it happened...)
- Washingtion and Pacal at war
- Charlemagne and Alexander at war
All the rest were IMO lower probability events.
Note that I write "lower", not "low".
Let's use as a rule of thumb 35% vs 65% : individually, getting the 35% event is not shocking at all. But we kept getting those. The rolls weren't exceptional (nothing of the Boudica attacking Mao sort for instance), the streak was.
Pacal declaring on Alexander rather than Washington? Sure, just less likely.
Washington and Saladin sharing a religion? Sure, just less likely.
Said religion spreading early enough to raise relations before a DoW? Sure, just less likely.
Washington founding a religion before Charlemagne? Sure, just less likely.
Charlemagne not founding and converting to a later religion? Sure, just less likely.
Washington founding a religion before Saladin? Sure, just less likely.
Saladin not founding and converting to a later religion? Sure, just less likely.
Saladin going Assembly Line + Industrialism before Biology + Medicine? Sure, just less likely.
etc.
All of the above? Hmm, yeah, not bloody likely.
Did happen, though.
When I replay this game, I do expect to see Louis DoW'ing Pacal on a regular basis.
I do expect to see Pacal die to a dogpile more often than not.
I do expect to see Washington winning a few of them.
But I do not expect to see a game where Saladin is completety passive (curse the of the "cannot plot at pleased"!) AND Washington gets a total free pass in the early game AND Pacal's first war turns into a dogpile where none of his opponents will peace out AND the game ends in a peacefest AND...
(Yes, for the record, I believe the spaceship win also fell into the "lower probability" category.)
But I may be wrong.
I actually hope I'm proven wrong: losing when you're not good enough is the name of the game. Losing to an improbable dice roll (looking at you, wildcard game
) is harder to swallow 
!
That said... I remain convinced that the Louis-Saladin conflict is more likely in general: more extensive border (in this game, Louis getting the barb city instead of Saladin reduced the potential border overlap for instance), greater peaceweight difference, different religions, Saladin attacking first...
We'll see when I get to replay that one.
I'd say my main prediction, ie that this game was largely unpredictable, was confirmed.
But mainly, I believe we got a series of lower probability events, which, combined, led to a pretty unlikely outcome.
High probability early events that did happen:
- Alexander ending up with no metal (I called it, although the way it happened...
)- Washingtion and Pacal at war
- Charlemagne and Alexander at war
All the rest were IMO lower probability events.
Note that I write "lower", not "low".
Let's use as a rule of thumb 35% vs 65% : individually, getting the 35% event is not shocking at all. But we kept getting those. The rolls weren't exceptional (nothing of the Boudica attacking Mao sort for instance), the streak was.
Pacal declaring on Alexander rather than Washington? Sure, just less likely.
Washington and Saladin sharing a religion? Sure, just less likely.
Said religion spreading early enough to raise relations before a DoW? Sure, just less likely.
Washington founding a religion before Charlemagne? Sure, just less likely.
Charlemagne not founding and converting to a later religion? Sure, just less likely.
Washington founding a religion before Saladin? Sure, just less likely.
Saladin not founding and converting to a later religion? Sure, just less likely.
Saladin going Assembly Line + Industrialism before Biology + Medicine? Sure, just less likely.
etc.
All of the above? Hmm, yeah, not bloody likely.
Did happen, though.
When I replay this game, I do expect to see Louis DoW'ing Pacal on a regular basis.
I do expect to see Pacal die to a dogpile more often than not.
I do expect to see Washington winning a few of them.
But I do not expect to see a game where Saladin is completety passive (curse the of the "cannot plot at pleased"!) AND Washington gets a total free pass in the early game AND Pacal's first war turns into a dogpile where none of his opponents will peace out AND the game ends in a peacefest AND...
(Yes, for the record, I believe the spaceship win also fell into the "lower probability" category.)
But I may be wrong.
I actually hope I'm proven wrong: losing when you're not good enough is the name of the game. Losing to an improbable dice roll (looking at you, wildcard game
) is harder to swallow !