(August 3rd, 2020, 17:58)Kuro Wrote: Here is one of the resources I used when looking for how neighboring AI affects likelihood of war, if you or anyone else wants to take a look (since for all I know I messed up XD): https://forums.civfanatics.com/threads/i...st-7190899
I'm sure there's other or better resources but hey.

That's... pretty convoluted stuff.

But yeah, the takeaway here is that it looks like amount of shared border is a bigger factor in war plotting than we'd originally thought.
(SPOILER FOR PLAYOFF 1 SINCE I CAN'T REMEMBER HOW TO TAG IT)
Just eyeballed the map at the time Louis declared war and it does still look like he would've been more likely to attack Sal, but even when adjusting for relations, given this new info, an attack of Washington looks no more likely than one on Pacal. So what actually happened was still not the most likely outcome, but it isn't quite as out-of-nowhere as it seemed at the time.
That's definitely an important insight for future games though. Thanks for sharing this info with us!