Civ AI Survivor: Season Five

[Kuro]

Interesting stuff, Kuro. Thanks for digging into it and posting.

A question/thought: Does the aggressive AI setting being checked have any effect on dog pile war decisions? I believe Sulla described it as causing the AIs to not check power differences the way they normally would -- this helps explains some of the declarations by weak AIs against much stronger AIs. If this also changed the dog pile war decision process with its shared/joint power calculations, then mass dog piles become even more likely to occur.

From what I can tell, Aggressive AI has at least the following effects (and maybe more I couldn't find).

1. It causes the AI to believe it is more powerful than it actually is, 33% more powerful to be precise (done by multiplying their OwnPower rating by 33%). It does not seem to remove it entirely, but it is likely that this power check increase causes weak AI to almost always be in range to at least possibly declare on someone massively stronger than them, because the main check for base war is 3/2*OP*MaxNearPR or MaxDistPR, so the increased sense of own power then is multiplied again. Since the effect starts with the base of their own power, this also means Aggressive AI should affect AI that build lots of units "more" since they have more to multiply. This might mean AI with high unit build but more middling other aggressive stats are more likely to declare war under this setting. Note that LimitedWar and DogpileWar also take into account OwnPower but at different numbers.

2. A flat +10 is added when rolling for potential victims to each victim. This doesn't affect the AI's desire to start checking for potential war victims, but it makes them more likely to find one (and therefor more likely to start a war) AND more likely to increase the number of potential targets by letting them hit the minimum check. This should make it more likely that low-chance AI wars happen in specific: A war with a high chance of happening probably happens anyway, while a war that is only a 2% chance or whatever might have 10 new numbers that make a war due to +10. 

3. I'm not sure if I am reading this correctly, but as I understand it the AI is more likely to declare war while paying for lots of units with Aggressive AI on. From what I can tell, and I again could be wrong, the AI multiplies the base chance to declare total / "normal" war (but not Limited or Dogpile) by it's HUSP score + 1, HUSP being a rating of how much the AI is paying units. Non-Aggressive AI HUSP is Max(0,USP-7)/3. USP = UnitSpendingPercentage, checked by doing 100 * Unit Cost / TotalCost. Agressive AI's HUSP is listed as "*2 + 1), which makes me think it is either multiplying the HUSP value of non-aggressive or flatout just multiplies the base USP value for HUSP. Whatever the specific amount, Aggressive AI makes it more likely for the AI to attack if it is paying a lot for units but not totally broke. Like with the OwnPower check, this should affect AI that make more units more as well.

4. Without Aggressive AI, the AI has a 25% per turn to simply not be "in the mood" for a war before checking anything else for war if they are not broke and are not pursuing a "Dagger" strategy that only specific AI pursue. This is likely a huge general boost to how often an Aggressive AI goes to war by simply removing a flat 1/4th chance per turn to not even bother checking war.

Barring information I don't know, my own misunderstanding or whatnot, that is all the effects Aggressive AI has on how likely the AI is to declare war.

EDIT: Playoff Game 2 Predictions

Winner: Julius Caeser
Runner Up: Suryavarman II
First to Die: Willem
War Total: 11
End Date: T298
Victory Type: Domination

Comments: Had to submit this very late, so a shorter explanation than normal. Willem and Caeser along with Mao and Asoka will have major border tension, Mao and Asoka seem pretty much destined to fight at some point. I think Caeser will attack Willem despite peaceweights: Willem likely will have a very weak military (no units until iron, low military tech weight, mediocre unit build) while Caeser 100% has copper (meaning he will build his Axes earlier, spike in power earlier and be up for wardeccing earlier) and almost certainly will get iron for Praetorians.

Once Caeser gets Praetorians, Willem crumbles much faster than Asoka. Caeser is MUCH more willing to wardec on Sury and Mao than Mao is on Sury, as well. My first thought was Mao 2nd actually, buuut...Sury has a good chance to join in on the war with Willem and gain shared war bonus with Caeser. I also think Mao's conquest of Asoka might take awhile and leave him behind. Sury also has a good chance to found a religion and spread it to Caeser (even if by conquest of Willem). So I think Caeser turns on Mao (be it before or after Augustus), eats him with a superior empire, and then just rolls over the game. His Imperialistic/Organized also seems really good for this game, good expansion room and econ.

Game of fast conquest, so he wins pretty fast. Most wars fight to the finish, so only 11 wars.

Sneaky alternate thought: Asoka can definitely absorb enough aggression for Augustus to win this game, particularly if Caeser and Mao decide to fight instead which is not unlikely (Caeser's 4 peaceweight is roughly as far from Augustus/Asoka's 8 as from Mao/Sury's 1). Augustus could also conquer someone if they attack him or he attacks with Praetorians. I honestly would not be surprised if he won.