RBPB4 [SPOILERS] - De Gaulle of the Egyptians

[Lord Parkin]

1W sounds good to me.

Ok, cool.

My thoughts on Stonehenge are that you should go for it. It's worth getting, and you should have a good chance.

Yeah, I agree. The question is when to go for it though. At the moment we have two competing plans: one gets Stonehenge at turn 40 when we have 2 cities (stunting early growth slightly), and the other gets Stonehenge at turn ~55 when we have ~4 cities (more risk of losing it but doesn't stunt early expansion).

I would think Roosevelt/Netherlands is almost certainly going to be gunning for the Lighthouse.

Quite possibly. Although if they're paying attention to the demographics and have noticed that the Zulu settled on the coast, that may make them less inclined to try for the Great Lighthouse and more inclined to try for something else. On the other hand, it might make them fight even harder for the Great Lighthouse. No way of knowing for sure.

Bismark/Sumeria are your most likely competition. And maybe a surprise attempt from Wang Kon of Arabia, since he has Mysticism already.

I'd agree with that analysis. Problem is I don't really know how likely either of the players for these civs are to go for early Stonehenge. I guess the safest plan is to go for the turn 40 build and stunt early growth a little, but it's possible we could get away with the turn ~55 build... just less likely.

If you want to know whether you'll get it or not, there's one thing that might help quite a bit: Demographics. As far as I understand, once an Industrious civ starts on it, there'll be a spike in the production demographics from the 50% bonus, that you should be able to spot.

Sure, we can look out for that. The problem is that by the time we see the spike, it'll likely be too late for Stonehenge. If their capitals are anything like ours then the Industrious civs could build it in ~7-8 turns after starting it. That's not enough to switch to Mysticism, finish it, then start on Stonehenge and finish it ourselves first. So we'll unfortunately have to make a decision between the turn 40 and ~55 plans without having advance knowledge of whether there's going to be much (or any) competition.

The only trouble is telling that spike apart from expansive workers/granaries and imperialistic settlers...

That too... but like I said, the bigger problem is the fact that it'll probably be too late by the time we do see any spike.

[Irgy]

I thought you were more worried about someone finishing it a turn before you do, which demographics could help with. They won't help decide whether to do the T40 or T55 option though I agree. In any case though I was kind of referring to the T40 plan as "going for it" and the T55 as not going for it but picking it up late if it just happens to still be around. Maybe T55 is still early, I've got little experience with this in multiplayer.

It's a bit like a game of rock-paper-scissors really. T40 is your rock, a <T40 blitz is their paper, not bothering at all is your scissors, picking it up T56+ is their rock, T55 is your paper and 40<T<55 is their scissors.

I will also mention that the wall is nigh on useless in this game, between no barbs and the spy rules. Whether that pushes more people towards Stonehenge I'm not sure.

I forgot there was only one coastal civ, had this game partly confused with another when I was thinking about that part. I remember you writing a whole post about it though now.

[Lord Parkin]

I thought you were more worried about someone finishing it a turn before you do, which demographics could help with. They won't help decide whether to do the T40 or T55 option though I agree.

Ah, right. I see where you're coming from now. Yes, we might be able to determine if we happen to be in a race for Stonehenge when we're also going for it. Still, this information isn't really much use pre-BW, since we can't do anything to speed up our ETA once we're locked into a path. At least it might give us the chance to cut our losses and switch to more Settlers instead in the worst case scenario... so I guess we should keep an eye out anyway.

In any case though I was kind of referring to the T40 plan as "going for it" and the T55 as not going for it but picking it up late if it just happens to still be around.

Okay then, I'll count that as one vote towards the turn 40 plan. To be honest I'm leaning slightly in that direction myself, but we'll see what happens over the next few turns. No need to lock in a firm decision until turn 24, so plenty of time yet.

Maybe T55 is still early, I've got little experience with this in multiplayer.

Turn 55 is generally pretty late for Stonehenge to go, unless you have a whole heap of Creative civs in a game. Usually it goes around the turn 50 mark or just before in a "normal" multiplayer game (if such a thing exists).

It's a bit like a game of rock-paper-scissors really. T40 is your rock, a <T40 blitz is their paper, not bothering at all is your scissors, picking it up T56+ is their rock, T55 is your paper and 40<T<55 is their scissors.

Interesting way of thinking of it...

I will also mention that the wall is nigh on useless in this game, between no barbs and the spy rules. Whether that pushes more people towards Stonehenge I'm not sure.

Indeed, I mused earlier that the Great Wall is pretty much completely neutered in this game. I don't think it'll give the non-Industrious, non-Mysticism starting civs a realistic chance at Stonehenge though, at least if we go with the turn 40 plan.

I forgot there was only one coastal civ, had this game partly confused with another when I was thinking about that part. I remember you writing a whole post about it though now.

Yep, one civ with a coastal capital, who may or may not be planning on the Great Lighthouse. It's worth pointing out that Mackoti (Roosevelt) may not have been prioritising the Great Lighthouse that highly anyway - Roosevelt's only got a very minor edge over any other Industrious leader. Any civ (even non-Industrious) to beeline to Sailing/Masonry has a decent chance to grab the Great Lighthouse, and a coastal capital probably trumps all for the best chance at the wonder.

[Irgy]

Yep, one civ with a coastal capital, who may or may not be planning on the Great Lighthouse. It's worth pointing out that Mackoti (Roosevelt) may not have been prioritising the Great Lighthouse that highly anyway. Roosevelt's only got a very minor edge over any other Industrious leader - either way a beeline works out for the determined Great Lighthouse grabber, and a coastal capital probably trumps all for any chance at a non-Industrious build.

The thing about Roosevelt wasn't the organised trait so much as the Netherlands. The Netherlands will want to settle coastal cities anyway for their UB (and UU to a lesser extent). When you put the two together you couldn't make a more lighthouse directed civ. Just like yourself and Stonehenge really

Still, they're obviously playing the map and settling inland when that's what the map gives them. So who know's what they'll end up doing.

[Lord Parkin]

The thing about Roosevelt wasn't the organised trait so much as the Netherlands. The Netherlands will want to settle coastal cities anyway for their UB (and UU to a lesser extent). When you put the two together you couldn't make a more lighthouse directed civ. Just like yourself and Stonehenge really

Ah, fair point. In that case, we might actually want to hope the Zulu build it instead of the Netherlands, just for denial purposes. Although the early game benefit should be pretty much equally good for anyone who builds it, so maybe not. (I wouldn't mind us getting that wonder actually - probably like everyone else - but I don't expect our chances to be high. It'd be more of an afterthought if no-one else had it later on.)

Still, they're obviously playing the map and settling inland when that's what the map gives them. So who know's what they'll end up doing.

Indeed.

On a different matter, next turn should be interesting from an espionage perspective. It's the turn that we'll be able to see who else went straight for Hunting out of the gate. (Fishing would be the same cost, but a bizzare first tech for the eight other inland sites.) Essentially, we can pretty much deduce a score increase next turn = researched Hunting. Zulu, of course, will be the exception as they'll be a turn behind and won't finish a tech next turn regardless.

[Lord Parkin]

So, a few things this turn. Firstly, our Warrior moved 1W as agreed, and found some Rice next to a river - that's the second food resource we've found outside our capital so far! Definitely looking like a food-poor map.



We're currently planning on heading 1SW with the Warrior next turn (any disagreements - speak up! ).

We also finished Hunting, and noted score increases from everyone except Vikings, Greece and Zulu. Zulu are behind by a turn due to not settling in place, and Vikings and Greece had Hunting as a starting tech so wouldn't have been researching that anyway. Given the high unlikeliness of anyone researching Fishing out of the gate with a landlocked capital, we can pretty much say for certain that everyone who didn't start with Hunting went for it right from the start. That to me seems to be a very strong indicator that everyone else must have had similar starts Deer-wise (there's little other reason to go for Hunting first if you don't have immediate need for the Camp action). Interesting to bear in mind.

Also, we've reached the turn-off point at which we have to either go for or discard this option for Stonehenge:

- The earliest we can possibly make a bid for Stonehenge (that wouldn't be downright silly, as in going for Mysticism straight out of the gate) would be by going Hunting (7) -> Mysticism (16). Pros: We can finish Stonehenge around turn 27/28 (!). Cons: We only get one extra Warrior out, delays a second Worker until the early 30's (!), delays our first Settler until the early 40's (!), delays either AH until turn 28 and BW until turn 52/53 (!) or BW until turn 41/42 and AH until turn ~54 (!). Overall: Not good.

I'm not really in favour of this one as it sacrifices a bit too much early expansion solely for the wonder. Sure it pretty much guarantees us the wonder - as opposed to the turn 40 option which only gives us a good chance, and the turn ~55 option which gives us a rather risky chance. But I think if we have a rival (or rivals) who are so dead-set on Stonehenge that they'd claim it in the turn 28-39 range without us grabbing it at turn 27/28, then we're better off just letting them suffer the stunted early growth and focus on early expansion ourselves. Hopefully we'll be able to tell by turn 24 whether someone's going for a super-early Stonehenge, at which point we can decide whether or not to make a bid for our turn 40 plan.

So, I think the turn 27/28 plan is pretty much out the window. Still, I thought I'd put it up one last time to hear any last opinions before I finalise Animal Husbandry as the next tech. (Speaking of which, I presume we're all settled on that too?)

[Irgy]

I feel silly posting just to say this, but I agree with everything you just said.

Zulu won't be going hunting anyway by the way, settling late or not It'll be interesting to see if they get fishing though.

[Senseless]

Irgy, I guess I should feel doubly foolish because essentially I'm just posting this to say that I agree with everything that you and Parkin just said.

On Stonehenge:
I agree that attempting stonehenge this early is not a good play. It seems like the T44 and T50 plans are the only one44 plan. What does everyone else think?

[Lord Parkin]

I feel silly posting just to say this, but I agree with everything you just said.

Irgy, I guess I should feel doubly foolish because essentially I'm just posting this to say that I agree with everything that you and Parkin just said.

No worries, both of you - better to voice your agreement than not say anything!

Zulu won't be going hunting anyway by the way, settling late or not It'll be interesting to see if they get fishing though.

Yeah, obviously Zulu started with Hunting, so won't be researching it. Excellent point about watching out for Fishing though - if they went for that first, then they should get a score increase a turn after everyone else.

The turn just flipped, and we can see from Civstats that there wasn't such a score increase from them - therefore they didn't get Fishing first. That seems a bit odd, given that they moved their capital to a coastal location. You'd think that if they were moving for seafood, then Fishing first would have surely been the logical first tech? Did they not have seafood? But then why would they move to the coast?

Maybe they're just planning on building a Warrior before a Work Boat, and as such are delaying Fishing? That might make more sense. Ah well, I guess we can't know for sure.

On Stonehenge:
I agree that attempting stonehenge this early is not a good play. It seems like the T44 and T50 plans are the only one44 plan. What does everyone else think?

Turn 40 and 55 were the options... I think you're getting confused. Anyway, at the moment I'm thinking that if we see that no-one appears to be going for Stonehenge by turn 24, we go for the turn 40 plan. Turn 55 just seems too late. The only thing that would possibly change that in my mind is if we suddenly find some superb city locations that we don't want to delay settling... but given what we've found so far, I rather doubt that will happen.

[Lord Parkin]

So, next turn! Research begins on Animal Husbandry, 11-12 turns to go.

We moved the Warrior 1SW as planned. Nothing much revealed.



So, where to next? That hill 2W seems a decent choice, but how to get there? Going 1NW or 1SW this turn would work equally well. Maybe 1NW?