Diplomacy No press Game 01 LURKER THREAD [NO PLAYERS]

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Speaking of Turkey, here are his thoughts

Well Austria did change course and attack BUL. But interesting to note that it happened without any support from Russia but Austria did show support for Russia.

Thanks to my 2 fleets CON is safe for this year at least. In generall Russia and Austria have a lot of Armies which doesn't help them much for breaking Turkey. Perhaps they will find it appropriate to use their Armies to fight each other.

On other news: thanks to Germans attack on Tyrol Italy gets a build but I doubt they will get much use from it. If they build an Army France sails into TYS and Italy will lose either TUN or ROM and most likely VEN too. If they build a Fleet Italy loses VEN for sure and maybe another center this year.

England did find the prospect of a sure build too tempting and did move to take one from Germany. Will get interesting to see what England decides to do. I'm sure he watches the developments in Italy closely.

Germany OTOH got lucky to not lose Mun this turn and doesn't have many friends left. His tries to get french support have met a cold shoulder so long and given the Italian situation I guess France won't turn against Austria soon.

This is also the biggest danger for me. Once Italy falls I'll find french fleets in ION and that will mean the end for Turkey.

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Thoughts from Germany

Fall 1902:

Bad set of moves for Germany this time. Austria and I are leading the
game with 6 SCs each, but Austria is clearly in a much superior
position.

England stabs and takes Sweden. France declines my offer of help south
and instead offers his help to Austria against me. I tap Austria's
support so I deny him a fleet in Trieste. But Turkey pays for his bad
set last turn and Russia helps Austria to Bulgaria. Looks like it's
going to be A Vienna this turn which is not good news at all. Austria
will use it to get revenge for being denied Venice no doubt. Turkey is
in deep trouble. Russia makes a comeback. He owes me no favours and
could make my life hell with the fleet in Stp and maybe also that army
in Moscow. Apart from Austria, the big winner this turn is Italy and
suddenly he is my best (only) ally. I expected England's move. But
France disappointed me. And I'm in a position to annoy France more
than I can England or Austria.

I will have some strategising to do to keep my SCs in 1903. But that
can wait until after I see what England builds. Interesting choice. F
Lon which moves to the English Sea will mean I lose an SC next year.
An army is an interesting choice. He'll clearly try to convoy that
over to the mainland. An extra army does not help him crack my defence
but it does mean that if he does guess right at some point and get
that army on the mainland, then I'm dead. I now regret not charging
for France earlier. I genuinely thought he would just continue towards
the Med.

I think I have to build the fleet in Kiel this turn and hope that 3
armies are enough. All I have to do is use my fleets to defend
Denmark, Holland, Belgium and the Helgoland Bight, counter against
England by trying for the North Sea or English Channel, defend Munich
against the charging Austrian and invade France by trying for Paris or
Brest. Simples.

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Thoughts from Austria

Some thoughts on the Fall Turn. I'll start with myself..

Basically I felt pretty good about my chances of getting Bulgaria... So my choice on attacking Venice was either to move in with Tyrolia or with Trieste. The one issue here though is if I get 2 centers, I want 2 home tiles to be open... And I couldn't afford to empty out Budapest, so Trieste needed to be empty... Unfortunately, Germany ordered Munich->Tyrolia for reasons that I don't really understand at all (???), so that cut my support. If I had moved into Venice with Tyrolia instead of Trieste he would've lost Munich. No idea what he was doing there. Italy is still screwed, but it'll take slightly longer to do the job now, which is bad for me since it lets France have a good shot at Italian centers which I'm not really cool with. Anyways, onto everyone else:

Turkey - He did what I guessed was most likely with the Aegean fleat, and I think I made the right call to take Bulgaria there and side with Russia. He chose to disband Bulgaria for reasons that I don't really understand..? If I were him I'd retreat it to Const and disband something else (Armenia would be more logical) but whatever floats his boat.

Russia - Played defensively, obviously unsure of what I'd do. Hopefully we can get a little A-R going. England and Germany squabbling bought him some time in the north.

France - Things are going much too nicely for him. No builds for him though which, yay?

Italy - I guess he's just going to maroon that army on Tunis? Honestly I've given up trying to figure what Italy's doing. Just some odd moves all-around. Seems like the logical move would've been to convoy to Apu and build Fleet Rome, but now he's forced to build Army Rome and camp an army on Tunis. Ok?

England - Captured Sweden (which was neutral but controlled by Germany), so he picks up another build.

Germany - mentioned him above, but got no clue what he was doing with Munich-Tyrolia.

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Adjustment results for Winter of 1902. (rbnopress01.007)

Austria: Builds an army in Vienna.
England: Builds a fleet in London.
Germany: Builds a fleet in Kiel.
Italy: Builds an army in Rome.

Fairly expected I think

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Some thoughts from France

A Tus-Rom
F Lyo-Tys
F Wes S F Lyo-Tys
A Par S A Bur
A Bur S A Tyr-Mun
Actually, reconsider A Tus-Rom, change to A Tus S A Tri-Ven

tus-rom is one way of cutting support to Venice, but I don't know what that army is going to do - it might just attack Tus.
if I give support to tri that is one way to start cutting I out of hte game, and last turns move or supporting A Tyr-Mun means that hopefully A will take the hint and try and move into Mun to both get a bit more land, and stop G from just rolling over my north
if it were a press game, FEA would be working quite well around about now

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IMO Tus S A Tri-Ven instead of Tus-Rom is a mistake. You want to do Tus-Rom because you're not sure which army Austria will support with. He may swap to do Tri S Tyl-Ven to handle Germany possibly cutting support again. Tus-Rom cuts any support for A Rom, and so will handle either case.

The only reason I might NOT do it like that is if there is a specific reason that you want Austria to attack from Trieste (and in this situation that may be the case, if France wants Austria to use A Tyl to attack or be in a position to attack Munich)

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Thoughts from England

England, S 02:

Time to reevaluate my position. What are we looking at:

1) F – A vs. I: [Long-winded analysis that is then promptly deleted for brevity]: Assuming competent play on all sides, Italy’s days are numbered.

2) The Southeast:

Does Russia consider trying to make a move up North now? No. Too much going on.



3) Germany – France and Germany – England

So, we have 3 Germany armies, and 3 German fleets. Assume for the moment that Germany is not interested in intervening in the Austria – Italy theater. If Germany DOES intervene, then A Par S A Bur holds out against Germany. The Germany-intervenes-South scenarios don't worry me. Really, it's Bel-Hol which is the only weird one, and that's not that bad in almost all iterations of German moves. For the Crack Bur Plan, there are 3 scenarios to analyze:

a) Bel – Bur: Assuming that France can’t cover Mar with either a fleet or an army, then Bur has to retreat to Mar. Par S Mar – Bur becomes the only realistic move for France in F 02, and Ruh S Bur leaves Mun free, or Mun S Bur leaves Ruh free to wreak a little havoc on Belgium or Holland. HOWEVER, this leaves him VERY vulnerable to Nth – Bel, as I simply walk into Bel. Not likely. Especially since Nth – Bel is a nice block-Germany-from-moving-in plan (which is plausible, but only if I was worried about Bur falling, which I’m not b/c Germany can’t advance any more by cracking Bur. Let Bur fall, it’s not the end of the world. I have other pressure to apply.)

b) Ruh – Bur: Advantage: Leaves Mun free to help mess in the easy. Disadvantage: Ruh is well-placed to assist in the north. Not likely.

c) Mun – Bur: I think this is the most likely of the three Crack Burgundy plans.

d) What do the German fleets do?

Well, he’s probably expecting Nwy S Swe, and then something odd with Nth. So I’m NOT GOING TO DO THAT (well, something odd with Nth is a given, since he has no other options):

F Nwy – Ska

A Swe – Den

F Nwg – Nwy

F Nth – Hol (coin-flip vs. Nth – Hel, which would’ve required Lon – Nth)

F Lon – Eng (cautious, as if Holland gets bounced, Lon is still useful.)



My biggest danger:

Ska – Swe

Bal S Kie – Den puts Germany in Den/Swe/Bal and me in Ska/Nwy/Fin…but he can’t hold Sweden while covering Kiel. So, whatever. Anything else means that I can safely take Sweden back, again assuming no Russian intervention.

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Note from me (GM): If I'm Germany I HAVE to order Kie-Hel - you just can NOT let England into Helgoland in the spring.

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Note from England, and along that same note

I changed my mind and went with Nth-Hel and Lon-Nth b/c I got scared of Bel-Hol messing everything up. Foolish move? Who knows. I think my worst case is getting Den but losing Swe to Bal-Swe. But even then, I'm even for SC, with a shot of grabbing Kie or Hold with Nth/Hel/Den floating around (and Nwg S Nwy in that case for holding Nwy)

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F1903M

Movement results for Spring of 1903. (rbnopress01.008)

Austria: Army Bulgaria -> Greece. (*bounce*)
Austria: Army Trieste SUPPORT Army Tyrolia -> Venice.
Austria: Fleet Greece -> Ionian Sea. (*bounce*)
Austria: Army Tyrolia -> Venice.
Austria: Army Budapest -> Serbia.
Austria: Army Vienna -> Budapest.

England: Army Sweden -> Denmark. (*bounce*)
England: Fleet Norway -> Skagerrak.
England: Fleet North Sea -> Helgoland Bight.
England: Fleet Norwegian Sea -> Norway.
England: Fleet London -> North Sea.

France: Army Burgundy SUPPORT Austrian Army Tyrolia -> Munich. (*void*)
France: Army Tuscany -> Rome. (*bounce*)
France: Fleet Western Mediterranean SUPPORT Fleet Gulf of Lyon -> Tyrrhenian Sea.
France: Fleet Gulf of Lyon -> Tyrrhenian Sea.
France: Army Paris SUPPORT Army Burgundy.

Germany: Army Ruhr -> Burgundy. (*bounce*)
Germany: Army Belgium -> Picardy.
Germany: Fleet Skagerrak -> Denmark.
Germany: Fleet Baltic Sea SUPPORT Fleet Skagerrak -> Denmark.
Germany: Army Munich -> Tyrolia.
Germany: Fleet Kiel -> Holland.

Italy: Army Tunis HOLD.
Italy: Army Venice SUPPORT Austrian Army Tyrolia -> Piedmont. (*void, dislodged*)
Italy: Fleet Naples -> Ionian Sea. (*bounce*)
Italy: Army Rome SUPPORT Army Venice. (*cut*)

Russia: Army Ukraine SUPPORT Army Rumania.
Russia: Army Rumania SUPPORT Fleet Sevastopol.
Russia: Fleet Sevastopol SUPPORT Army Rumania.
Russia: Fleet St Petersburg (south coast) -> Finland.
Russia: Army Moscow -> St Petersburg.

Turkey: Army Armenia SUPPORT Russian Fleet Sevastopol.
Turkey: Fleet Black Sea -> Constantinople. (*bounce*)
Turkey: Fleet Aegean Sea -> Constantinople. (*bounce*)

and retreat

Italy: Army Venice -> Piedmont.