[SPOILERS] scooter's thread: The Honorable French

[Gaspar]

Busy atm, but ultimately as long as R has no fleets I think you're ok in the north. I'd build A Par & F Mar. Rowains chatter might be truth or he might just want to set you to the arms of Juggernaut. So I'd be more concerned with enticing Mattimeo that he needs to look elsewhere for builds.

[Gaspar]

Bigger's disbands suggest a potential arrangement with Rowain. Do not like.

[scooter]

Quick warning from Twinkletoes:

Hey
I couldn't get Austria to keep his fleet to give one last FU to Turkey because he said that he had already promised assistance to Germany with the army. I'm guessing that means an attack on TYR.
Thought you might like to know,
TT

And a message from Mattimeo:

So, Ven and Nap.

Both of us have one unit adjacent to each of these. Any chance of trading supports this season?

Mulling over how to respond to Mattimeo. I'll send a thank-you to TT, and I might or might not send a message guilting Tatan a bit. But yeah, need to make Mattimeo feel boxed in to subtly encourage the stab. Or maybe I'll be less subtle about it, we'll see. I've got an idea coming to me for how to handle him, so I'll give it a try soon.

Bigger's disbands suggest a potential arrangement with Rowain. Do not like.

Thought the same thing - NOT happy about those disbands at all - big deal for Rowain. I might pressure Rowain a bit to find out if something is in the works. I'm not going to do the stupid thing that a lot of people fall into and send an annoyed message to Germany and add fuel to the fire, but I can talk a little more freely with Rowain.

[scooter]

Ok, this is what I sent to Mattimeo:

Well, here's my concern. I'm not in a rush to get to an endgame that is a Juggernaut vs France showdown. I think that's a losing battle to me. I DO want a game that doesn't end in a 3-way draw, but having to choose between a forced draw or France vs Juggernaut, I'll force a draw. And in this case, I do have the current positioning to keep your fleets out of the Mediterranean for awhile, and I do have more builds to come in future years although they will be tougher to come by.

Basically, I meant it when I said a couple emails ago I think a final F vs T showdown would be quite exciting. Unfortunately, as long as you are attached at the hip to Russia, that's not possible for me because I can't win vs both you and Russia... So as long as I feel threatened by that, there's a strong motivation for me to hold you out of the Mediterranean so that I'm fighting on fewer fronts. So I view you being allied to Russia as an implicit statement that you are longterm enemies with me, so it's in my interest to slow you down right now.

I stabbed Germany. Until you or Russia stab each other though, my only friend is a 4-center Italy, so I have no choice but to protect him while he's still alive.

That was my "stab" at it. We'll see what he says.

[scooter]

Got this back from Mattimeo. Need to think about this.

On the other hand, I also can't win while staying attached at the hip to Russia, so it's resoundingly in my best interest to stab him at some point. However, Italy being alive to grab the holdings I would need to vacate to actually turn my attention northwards presents a sizable problem to any such ventures. While this front remains an actual issue, and is not just us two sitting there blocking the other from pushing forward, I cannot even consider opening a second, much longer front. That's just asking to be squished between you and Rowain, leaving it a FR end-game...

[scooter]

I'm thinking TT was wrong on the Tyrolia front. Germany is getting Tatan to cut Tyrolia so he can assault Munich. The situation:



If he hits Tyrolia, it cannot support Munich and therefore he can get into Munich with a double support. Ruh-Mun with Boh/Ber support would do it. He'd have to also order Hel-Kiel in order to prevent me from just retreating into there, but still.

His alternative option is to order Ruh-Hol with Hel support, which is unbeatable for me. However, in that case he'd have to gamble on leaving Berlin open by ordering Ber-Kie. Since I pretty much need to order Mun-Kie or Mun-Ber, that's a very real gamble for him, especially since I can easily retake Holland in the fall with Eng-Nth, Bur-Bel, Par-Bur orders.

So these aren't great options. Actually, on second though, taking Tyr does make sense. Taking Tyr would remove my ability to defend Munich in the fall because surely he'd have enough units to retake it. Hmm. I don't like this, there are too many variables here that there will be some luck involved. I think that not admitting I know of Austria's intentions to order Vie-Tyr is a wise idea. Surely he won't support with it as he's likely to get cut. Need to think about the tactical situation some more.

[scooter]

The big email from Mattimeo that I'm struggling with right now:

Russia can get 18 centres while allied to Turkey. Turkey cannot get 18 centres while allied to Russia. I know at least that much.

I'm trying to work out where decent stalemate lines are in the Med, only one I really know of is defending MAO-Spa-Mar from the north, so presumably defending N.Af-WES-LYO-Pie from the south is the counterpart to that. Not sure of any real stalemate lines closer to the current fronts than that - I'm assuming you'd veto that, since it involves ceding the entirety of Italy.
hm...
Rom-TYS-Tun on your side, Apu-Nap-ION-(something behind ION) on my side, all fleets? Ven is mine, Ven and Pie (maybe Tyr?) DMZ. Sure, there's a potential stab through the DMZ from both sides, but it locks up movement from fleets with only a minor extra investement from both of us.
We'd both get two builds, and a pretty solid front.

I'd naturally much prefer it if I had all of Italy, since you having half means you can win with germany + scandinavia, but I'm willing to worry about that once it looks like Rowain can't hold against you up there

Also, me pushing into Germany? That'd just give me even more fronts to worry about... maybe as a way of propping up Bigger against both you and Rowain, but then I'd be unlikely to be taking many centres.

The underlined portion is key. The problem I have right now is the Juggernaut seems unlikely to crack. Rowain can't really stab Turkey, and Turkey is in a position where stabbing Russia means I have an amazing solo chance. Also, me helping Italy means Russia helps Germany, so it's a really bad cycle. So what I can't figure out is how serious the underlined portion is. The proposal right before then feels awful to me, but it significantly raised the odds of an FT draw, which is better than an FTR anyways. The underlined proposal is more even, and it gives me a brief window in which I could solo if things went perfectly, but the drawback is I'm a more tempting stab target to Turkey. So it's all very confusing.

Either way, I can wait until after this turn is resolved to decide. This turn itself was a headache too, but I think I've finally figured out what to do. I think.

[scooter]

Either way, I can wait until after this turn is resolved to decide. This turn itself was a headache too, but I think I've finally figured out what to do. I think.

I said this and I've since changed orders a couple more times . Finally submitted something to Mardoc. If one of you guys can predict it in the lurker thread, I'll be impressed, as there's like 6 ways to play this. Basically though, there is no moves I can make for which Germany has no counter. Therefore, it's all about picking whatever moves I guess he's least likely to counter.

[Gaspar]

You could use a friend.

[scooter]

You could use a friend.

I really need to do another large-ish update.

Short version: I've gone all-in with Mattimeo. I couldn't hold Italy for forever, and Rowain was threatening further help for Germany and continued free capturing of G cities if I didn't let Mattimeo through. Honestly, I get why Rowain is playing the way he is, but what he's done has been quite annoying. Well, turns out Mattimeo has experienced similar frustrations with Rowain. I had a chat with Mattimeo. The problem we had was:

1) A 2/2 split isn't desirable to him as it puts me at extremely high risk of solo - and it would make me leery as it sounds more like a stab setup than anything
2) A 4/0 split is just not something I can stomach - especially with fighting G + R up north
3) I have no motivation to let him in and make FI vs RT turn into F vs RT.

So I laid out all those problems to him. Then my solution basically was a compromise on splits and guarantees from him. Basically, I told him I'm unwilling to split the centers up with him with no strings attached. I told him I want to guarantee that the FRT endgame turns into FT vs R. We both agreed that the ONLY possible outcomes should be F solo, T solo, or FT draw. Nothing else is acceptable to either of us. So the basic provisions:

1) I take Tunis. Turkey takes the rest of Italy
2) We set up a statemate line where I hold Tun/Wes/Lyo and he does what he wants. DMZ a couple tiles most likely
3) He builds only armies with his new centers. No more fleets.
4) T stabs R after Italy is gone.
5) We work to ensure we are the last two standing, and then we race to 18 or end in a 2-way draw.

If Mattimeo went through all this work to pull an elaborate stab on me, bravo. However, I'm going to take my chances because I didn't stab Germany to ditch FTG for an FRT. No thanks, I'd rather Germany had been in on that 3-way than Russia. Mattimeo also said he doesn't want to write off his solo chances either, so this deal maximizes our chances. We'll see where it goes. Popcorn right?

Apparently Molach's big selling point to Bigger way back was "do it for the ratings!"... Well if nothing else, I can write this off as a "do it for the ratings" move if this comes back to haunt me .

Also, on Italy. First, I did NOT want him to die - I felt awful ordering into Tunis and I made it crystal clear to Mattimeo I was only willing to dismantle Italy if he was 100% committed to us taking down Rowain afterwards. Also, Italy was going to die eventually regardless of my help (Adriatic, Ionian, etc), so I needed to get on with the game as I was getting sick of Rowain threatening me and helping Germany. All that said, for some reason TT ordered into Tunis?? That was quite a surprise to say the least. So the mystery to me is who tipped him off? I really don't understand where that came from. Not that it matters a great deal, but it was still quite surprising.

(yeah not sure how the above is a "short" version, but whatever )