[SPOILER] The Steak, Beer, and Cigar Saloon

[Dhalphir]

I don't think it's worth it to whip a city to size 1 for a settler.

[Catwalk]

Turn 11

Declared war on Jowy as planned, decided against moving on his rice in favour of checking his lands out first. Turns out he's been working 3/0/1 corn, good news for us. He'd be off to a way faster if he had a forest deer, as is it'll take him another 4t to bring out his first worker. I'll also be able to force him to farm his rice first instead of his corn.

I agree that whipping the settler probably won't be worth it. It will be able to settle 2t faster that way, but I'll be whipping away the wheat for 3t. My city grew to size 2 this turn, I remembered to switch on to the silk tile in order to finish the WB in 3 turns. Everything up until t20 is set in stone, I still have several different options after that. In particular, I've found a way to produce warriors on t30 and t31 as mentioned above (using wood hammers on them), this is appealing as it means I won't have to delay my growth to size 2 and it'll give me just enough time to explore both borders before making a final decision on where my first settler goes. That's another argument for not whipping the settler, I won't have enough information to tell for sure where it should go.

I believe war protocal is that I PM Jowy to agree on turn order for our war, is that correct? If so, I'd like to go first. I usually play before him anyway, and it gives me 1t more advance warning of his first warrior.

[spacetyrantxenu]

I don't see any reason you'd have to contact him out of game. Just play before him (the turn before and the turn of the declaration) and declare war if you want to play first, or watch civstats and play after him if you want to play second.

[Catwalk]

Alright, I just recalled reading something to that effect in another thread where the double move honour rules were described. I'll continue merrily stepping on his food then

[Catwalk]

Early micro is almost done. If I settle on t36 without whipping, my warriors will come in t30 and 2x t41. Given that noone starts with a warrior, I think I can get away with that. I'll only be able to scout in one direction before settling, but I've all but discarded an eastern settlement anyway. t30 is early enough that it can scout my western border suitably before deciding on settling. The settler completes t35, which is when I start both roads. Is it worthwhile spending 3 worker turns to speed up settlement by 1t? I'm thinking yes, given that the alternative is chopping more capital forests that I'd prefer holding on to.

[Catwalk]

Turn 12
Scouting Jowy a bit more.

He doesn't have any 0/3 tiles, so he can't get a warrior out in 4t. Which would also have been terrible anyway. His build is clearly settler first, intending to farm both the corn and the rice. Not only do I keep him from farming the corn, he also has to waste a turn moving to the rice for his first farm. He got a tech on t7, that has to be Mining. He will be able to finish Bronze Working in 15t after that, assuming he stays size 1. He settled on t0, so this is what his turns will look like:
t7 - Mining done, Bronze Working next
t15 - build worker, warrior next?, worker moves to rice
t16 - worker starts farming
t20 - farm done, 15/22 food, 5/15 hammers
t21 - worker moves to forest somewhere
t22 - size 2, 3/24 food, 7/15 hammers, Bronze Working done, start chopping
t24 - chop done, earliest time warrior can be done if a 0/3 can be worked somewhere or he's willing to drop the rice (unlikely)
t25 - if warrior didn't finish t24, it'll finish this turn with 15 hammers overflow

So as long as he's researching Bronze Working, his micro can be salvaged. He has to work early rice instead of early wheat, and he has to chop a forest instead of improving the other food resource. That's a good bit of early stomping, and it makes me realize that I'm quite vulnerable to that myself if anyone passes by. Is there any way I can claim to go first in a war with an aggressor, and would that be a dick move? Reason I'm asking is that it might discourage him from camping on my wheat, as a new warrior would be able to chew him before he gets to move. That's what I'm hoping to do with Jowy. Input would be greatly appreciated, as I don't want to generate any bad will in this game.

In case there was any doubt, espionage C&D shows that he does indeed have 48 hammers in the box. What's more interesting is that he only has half his EP devoted to me, so he's met someone else and he's forgotten to choose who he wants to spy on first. This will help me get graphs on him a little sooner, if he keeps me low for a long time (especially when he meets more opponents), chances are I can build up a nice early EP lead on him.

[Catwalk]

Updated my micro plan some more, I think it's approaching completion rapidly. Should I run into an early enemy scout, I can divert an early chop into a warrior. It'll screw with my micro, but I'll be able to start farming my wheat on time.

Two questions:
1) Is it generally worth it to spend 3 worker turns on a PH road on the city tile in order to settle 1t sooner? The alternative is additional chopping in the capital which has to go into a warrior, 3rd worker or 2nd settler. I have the other worker ready to start camping right away if I settle sooner. This is t35.
2) Should I get 4 beakers or 2 hammers on t28? The hammers won't let me finish my settler faster, the beakers won't let me research Pottery faster.

[Catwalk]

Playing around with my sandbox some more, I've realized that I really don't want to build the Colossus in my capital. I'd much rather put them in a GP farm (as was suggested to me earlier) where I can keep working 2 scientists and 1 engineer for a while. That focuses all my GPP in one city, and gives a very nice long-term distribution: 54.5% scientist, 27.3% engineer, 18.2% merchant. If I luck into an engineer then I can easily put another wonder here, top of my list would be Pyramids and MoM. Both are unlikely to be available by then though, and nothing else looks very appealing. Great Library is too far away, Great Lighthouse will be gone for sure, Hanging Gardens is unimpressive, Parthenon and Temple of Artemis are junk wonders. Maybe go for Temple of Artemis? It's another 5 GPP, and I like Merchant points around that point. I suppose I'd be better off saving the GE for a later wonder, though. But the next decent one available would be either Notre Dame or Taj Mahal. Waaay too long to wait, and I feel it's suboptimal to settle it or bulb with it. I could get a merchant instead for better payoff.

Another alternative is to hold off on generating my first GP in order to go for the 65% shot at an early engineer. I'd generate it 11t after finishing the forge, assuming a 2t Colossus build. If I were to go with a 5t Colossus build I'd get a 72% chance instead and it'd take 12t. Would Pyramids or Mausoleum be available around t102, though? Not likely, even if Stone and Marble are absent. Going for the Colossus sooner just to grab this outside chance probably isn't worth it.

A third, weedier alternative is to put up two forges right away. One for a GE, one for Colossus. That would give me a GE at 100% chance 19t after getting Metal Casting. There's also the jealousy factor to consider, though. Landing both Pyramids and Colossus with a FIN/PHI leader would likely raise eye brows. All in all, I think I'm better off getting a GS first.

Simple micro for a fast Colossus in a runt size 3 city could look as follows:
t0: Research Metal Casting, finish chops
t1: 90h chops + 5 production come in, whip forge 125/100
t2: forge done, 20 overflow, 4 base production, move workers
t3: start chopping, 54/250
t4: 63/250
t5: 90 chops => 274/250
t6: Colossus done

If all second round forests are pre-chopped, I can shave off 2t. If they're also roaded, I can save another turn.

Variation with only 4 forests total and a size 4 city about to grow:
t0: t0: Research Metal Casting, finish chops
t1: 60h chops + 5 production comes in, double whip forge 125/100, grow
t2: forge done, 20 overflow, 8 base production, move workers
t3: start chopping, 63/250
t4: 81/250
t5: 60 chops => 234/250
t6: 252/250, Colossus done

It's somewhat problematic to do this in a runt city that I whip, though. If I'll be working an engineer steadily at size 2, it'll take a long time for it to grow back and even longer for it to put up a library and generate the pop for two scientists. The rice site above the capital could be a good candidate if there's another food resource, it can borrow the fish whenever the capital is at max happiness and I see at least 5 forests for it. It might be a bad location to push borders in, though.

[Catwalk]

Turn 13
Jowy only has those 2 food resources, as expected:

Work boat and Bronze Working set to complete:

I'll revolt next turn to cancel the less productive turn where my work boat moves to the fish. I'm obviously looking forward to seeing where the copper lands, the absolute best spot would be the grass to the SW as that would let me share it with the expansion.

I'm strongly considering shelving the Colossus plan in favour of conventional expansion and teching. I had a long chat with my brother last night (who's a decent poker player) about risk assessment, and I realized that I really don't want to gamble in order to get a shot at winning. Being #2 or #3 also has value to me, and I should pursue the path that gives me the overall best return. Colossus won't be a profitable investment unless I postpone it further, I'm thinking t100 at the earliest. If someone else wants it before then, by all means go for it.

Instead, I'm thinking about doubling down on my plans to create a killer commerce capital. I'm considering settling several GPs there to let it "grow" past its happy limit and making a beeline for Civil Service while surrounding cities help develop cottages. This helps me stay under the radar, and it helps me protect my assets as most of them will be in the centre.

Along the lines of this, I was thinking about whether I want to step on Jowy's food and mess with his early plans. I can mess up his micro decently if I do so, but I'm also likely to garner a bitter enemy in the process. If he's busy making wonder plans and I ruin them completely, he may get so vindictive that he decides to throw his game and go after me out of spite. Zulus are well suited for harrassment, as I'd be spending massive resources protecting workers and settlers everywhere. Conversely, if I move away from his lands now after seeming like I'd get on his nerves, he might be grateful and interpret that as a sign of peaceful intentions. If I do so, should I backtrack west with my scout? That would serve two purposes: 1) Lead him into thinking we're south of him 2) Help uncover our backyard in a hurry, giving us full information for deciding on our first expansion. Alternately, we can continue east to scout far. I'm leaning towards going west, knowing that Jowy is over here with a capital similar to ours is plenty information IMO.

[Dhalphir]

I am glad that we have abandoned the Colossus plan. not that I thought it was the worst idea ever, but i think it was a risky plan and I never like risky plans if I can help it. I feel like the best path to success in this game will be to count on outplaying Jowy.