Werewolf 7 game thread

[scooter]

Alright guys, honestly, I'm not sure what to say at this point. I started writing a very gloomy post last night, then thought better of it and scrapped it... But suffice it to say, we're pretty screwed at the moment. I know it's only a matter of time before I'm lynched, whether it's today or tomorrow, so either way we're going to lose when that happens. The few people who believed in my innocence are all dead now (funny how that works), which means I will be lynched, and I know that means game over. I still feel like I keep getting lumped into "suspicious" just because I played poorly the first 2 days, but whatever, I'm not convincing anyone at this point.

So honestly, I'll wait and go with the majority on mayor/lynch, even if that means me. Just tell me who to vote for and I'll go with it. I'd throw my opinion out there, but frankly, I think it would just distort things since everyone believes I'm guilty anyways, so I'll just go with whatever the majority agree on, since that's kind of how we need to play things right now.

My only real suggestion would be to set an unofficial deadline for the mayor vote or something like that. Might help to make sure there's no funny business.

[Injera]

I agree with lynching scooter or TT first, either is fine with me. We need to start pondering where the double voter wolf is hiding, though. I'm not sure if we really have anything to go on, but it's critical to our survival. Unless I did my math wrong, the wolves have a staggering 50% chance each day of winning outright through a random roll on the mayor. But once they grab that chance they'll all have to expose themselves, and then it'll come down to rolls. Frankly, it pretty much is over for us unless we get way lucky. Is anyone math savvy enough to calculate our chances, assuming we pick wolves correctly and have a completely random chance of hitting the right wolf?

It's not really an odds thing at this point, since we have a feeling for the players. I'm a bit worried that ~17 hours in, we still have yet to have Roland, TT, scooter or Ichabod weigh in.

Here's my rough innocent list. Don't take the exact ordering for gospel, though.

Roland
Gaspar
Sareln
Meiz
Ichabod
Catwalk
TT
scooter

I think the two things we disagree on, Gaspar, is on Ichabod and Roland. For Ichabod, he hasn't done anything overtly suspicious in my mind, but I think you were the one who said something along the lines of "anyone can make a credible village post given enough time." It's not that I suspect him per se, or think that he's been unhelpful in any way, but I think it's plausible he could be a wolf playing a very innocent game. If you look at our mislynches they all received their impetus from confirmed innocents, so there's not a whole lot of reason a wolf would have needed to stick his head out thus far.

For Roland, there were just several times that we were clearly thinking on the same lines, pushing in the same directions, crossposting similar stuff. It might be somewhat of a reaction to the last lynch, but I felt I discounted that too much with zakalwe and got burnt on it, so I don't want to make that mistake again.

[Catwalk]

I don't think it matters much who becomes mayor, as long as it's not a wolf. The mayor won't have anymore say than the rest of the players in the current situation. Injera still suspects me for example, but he'll suspect me whether he's mayor or not. So I don't have a problem voting for him, as he's on my top 3 list of innocence. Me being one, Meiz being another. In fact, I'd make an excellent mayor since the mayor is going to die tonight. My reasoning skills are proven to be horrible, so it might be better to lose me than Meiz or Injera tonight

I think your math is slightly off Gaspar. Consider this scenario:
1) We try to get Meiz or Injera elected mayor. 50% chance of that succeeding, unless the wolves back down.
2) If we succeed, we're all but certain of lynching a wolf. Most likely we have a 25% chance of lynching the voter wolf.
3) If we fail to lynch the voter wolf, we then face a 50% risk of losing mayor again tomorrow, and we have a 1/3 chance of lynching the voter wolf (again, assuming we hit wolves with 100% accuracy).
4) Etc, each day the wolves have a 50% chance of grabbing the mayorship and winning straight.

Another take on it, fiddled a bit:

1a: Villager becomes mayor (50%)
2a: We lynch voter wolf (25%) very good chances of winning, total probability 12.5%
2b: We lynch normal wolf (75%)
3a: Villager becomes mayor (50%)
3b: Wolf becomhes mayor (50%) TOWN LOSS, total probability 25%
1b: Wolf becomes mayor (50%) TOWN LOSS

I haven't gone through all the combinations here, but there's definitely a straight chance of more than 75% of the wolves winning, on the assumption that we vote off a random wolf. Since the wolves know that we're planning on voting off TT or scooter, they can further enhance those chances based on whether or not one of them is the voter wolf. The wolves would have to be super confident not to grab this chance.

[Injera]

My only real suggestion would be to set an unofficial deadline for the mayor vote or something like that. Might help to make sure there's no funny business.

I think that we pretty much will need to have the mayor (whether it's me or not) cast his vote at about this time tomorrow so that everyone has time to get on the same page. It would be nice if we could resolve the mayoral choice itself in time for the Euro players to weigh in on wolf picks before that; 4-5 hours from now would be okay I think.

Right now we have TT, Roland, and Ichabod left to weigh in I believe.

[scooter]

Injera

[Sareln]

I agree with lynching scooter or TT first, either is fine with me. We need to start pondering where the double voter wolf is hiding, though. I'm not sure if we really have anything to go on, but it's critical to our survival. Unless I did my math wrong, the wolves have a staggering 50% chance each day of winning outright through a random roll on the mayor. But once they grab that chance they'll all have to expose themselves, and then it'll come down to rolls. Frankly, it pretty much is over for us unless we get way lucky. Is anyone math savvy enough to calculate our chances, assuming we pick wolves correctly and have a completely random chance of hitting the right wolf?

Those two statements don't make sense together. Perhaps you meant: "assuming we pick mayor correctly and have a completely random chance of hitting a wolf?"

Regardless, odds don't matter at this point. We play what we've got

I think the game cracks wide open after today if the wolves don't manage to outright win since we'll have the 4 previous (somewhat contentious) votes to analyze.

Personal Suspicion List Highest -> Lowest

1. Twinkletoes
   
2. Ichabod
   
3. Roland
   
4. Scooter
   
5. Meiz
   
6. Catwalk
   
7. Gaspar
   
8. Injera
   

[Meiz]

Why Ichabod, Sareln?

[Injera]

I don't think your numbers are off Catwalk, but I don't think it would play out as you described because I'm not sure if the wolves would risk going all in today. If they do, they expose themselves completely and there's a solid chance we can suss out the identity of the double vote wolf.

In any case, though, the odds are low but it's nothing to worry about. We just need to keep doing the best we can.

[Sareln]

Why Ichabod, Sareln?

Couple of reasons really. In no particular order:

• Serdoa's finishing statement.
  
• An off feeling in my interactions with him on days 2 & 3 after he votes me day 1. Felt like he was reading everything but wanted to keep pretending that I wasn't answering his questions, even after you pointed it out to him. Had to backpedal off that after I made it explicit.
  
• High density, low frequency posting leaves the possibility of attempting to keep a consistent villager persona running
  
• Vote analysis in conjunction with my other suspects, eg. he has never voted with TT for any lynch vote (they voted together on the mayor, but not Uberfish on day 1.)
  
• Praised Injera a couple of times as thinking similarly to him, yet he and Injera have never voted together. Seems like an attempt to build connection to a villager without making it obvious in the vote rolls.
  

[Gaspar]

Re: voter wolf - I think we can't get bogged down in permutations there. Ultimately, we need to vote wolves and we need a consensus - no last minute switching shenanigans, etc. I mean ultimately, at this point, so long as the villagers take solidarity there's no way the wolves can win themselves, they have to wait for us to screw up, either by putting a vote on an innocent or putting a mayoral vote on a wolf.

So, ok, I'll go with Injera since nobody else seems to have any other inclinations. As others have said, nothing personal to Injera, its a death sentence anyway, so I'll trust my village.

Re: Ichabod - I did point out what was said, but I also feel a bit that he's behaved just exactly like Ichabod and the content of his posts makes a lot of sense. Maybe this is me being gunshy post-zakalwe myself. While I never had zak on any likely wolf lists at the same time I didn't defend him as aggressively as possible because he had clearly played differently. So I'm a little loathe to go too crazy down that road. Perhaps Ichabod can chime in here for his own defense, since I don't think anyone is proposing we lynch him today? We do need to keep getting more information in the thread about other players regardless, as I don't think anyone is quite sold on the same 4 players. I think we've all got TT and scooter in our likely two, but beyond that I see a lot of variance.