Politics Discussion Thread (Heated Arguing Warning)

[Japper007]

Trump's really starting to sound like his neckbeard fanbase isn't he? Soon he's going to start talking about katana's and Youtube self-defense techniques

[ipecac]

Biden should run, at least he stands a chance.

[Nicolae Carpathia]

Biden is a walking #MeToo shitshow waiting to happen.

All he has going for him is he's personable, otherwise his policies are somhow worse than Clinton's.

[darrelljs]

A couple of the better Joe Biden Onion Moments:







Darrell

[MJW (ya that one)]

I love you Rand Paul for causing the dumbest thing ever to happen:

https://www.predictit.org/Contract/9289/...ary-9#data

[MJW (ya that one)]

RIP BB

[darrelljs]

RIP BB

My favorite quote of hers:

Clinton lied. A man might forget where he parks or where he lives, but he never forgets oral sex, no matter how bad it is.

Darrell

[Nicolae Carpathia]

Aaand so we see the logical outcome of trying to reconcile right wing populism and neoliberal redistribution of wealth upwards: social services are degraded at a faster rate for black people than white people:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk...2b9dac8478

[MJW (ya that one)]

This is just for fun; as the GOP is going to get crushed in 2024.

Solid D: HI, CA, MA, MD, VT, NY, WA, RI, MN, CT, DE, NM, NJ, VA, ME, MI
Likely D: MN-S, PA
D-Favored: WI, OH, MT, FL
Toss-Ups: AZ, MO, IN, NV, ND, WV
R-Favored: TN
Likely R: TX
Solid R: WY, UT, MS-S, NE, MS

This list is made assuming some "outside" things will happen. For example ME would only be D-Favored if ranked-choice ballot doesn't pass but it will.

If you look at my list it's very similar to CQ Politics. It's also very similar to Crystal Ball expect they have more "likely". This is because Crystal Ball uses "certain to win" instead of "all but certain to win" for Solid/Safe. Cook political basically doesn't make any predictions in order to avoid being wrong so they can be ignored. To be honest, I'm not confident in FL at all and bumped it up to avoid calling everything a toss-up.

NV not getting bumped up shows how hard it is to take out an incumbent.

I'm happy that everyone now has WV as toss-up. I was quite annoyed at people favoring him so that's why I choose him the one to be kicked out of toss-up earlier.

35% chance of DEM takeover.

Edit: It's come to my attention that WV's Don B. will run 3rd party. He won't be able to get ballot access but can run a write in campaign. This will bleed off 5% vote which is really bad. FL only got bumped up to avoid an excessive amount of toss-ups. Swap WV and FL.

Edit 2: not worth own post


Screw it; I'll join the dark side and go with CQ's tilt/lean system

Solid D: HI, CA, MA, MD, VT, NY, WA, RI, MN, CT, DE, NM, VA**, MI**, ME <--if ranked choice ballot fails somehow bump down to Lean D
Likely D: MN-S, PA, NJ <--pretty sure that 4% poll is BS but not sure
Lean D: OH, MT & WI <--doesn't make sense to move down with OH here and annoying GOP front runner
Tilt D: FL, NV, AZ
Toss-Ups: ND, WV*
Tilt R: MO, IN
Lean R: TN
Likely R: TX, MS-S <--people can get over AL-S
Solid R: WY, UT, NE**, MS

*swap with FL if Don B. gets ballot access
**would only be likely if the other team successfully recruited

Tilt: really more of a toss-up but this team has the edge
Lean: clear edge
Likely: should win but could lose
Solid: all but certain

[MJW (ya that one)]

The Venezuelan election was total BS. 67% is too much to be true. Do think it's possible that USA will get Maduroed someday, guys?