Did you really expect Maduro to hold fair elections MJW? He is firmly in the Putin and Erdogan category by now (he's never been different really right?).
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Politics Discussion Thread (Heated Arguing Warning)
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Yeah it somehow manages to both be hilariously over the top (compared to how his people actually see him) and uncharacteristically modest at the same time
 If you are going to be a cheating bastard anyway at least make it 95% or something!
I don't think the US will go down that path, there are too many institutionalized checks, but you never know for sure. I used to travel to Venezuela in the late 90s and it was a great place. No longer...most of my friends have left for Spain, Argentina or the U.S.
Darrell
June 18th, 2018, 00:20
(This post was last modified: August 14th, 2018, 01:22 by MJW (ya that one).)
Well all the "outside" things have happened or are very likely to happen so I will re-post my May 30th guesses without commentary. To be honest polls are reasonably good (2016 only missed by 2%) so if I were to go on it would just be reacting to polls. It's already happened with NJ. So this will be last update.
Solid D: HI, CA, MA, MD, VT, NY, WA, RI, MN, CT, DE, NM, VA, MI, ME Likely D: MN-S, PA, NJ Lean D: OH, MT, WI Tilt D: FL, NV, AZ Toss-Ups: ND, WV Tilt R: MO, IN Lean R: TN Likely R: TX, MS-S Solid R: WY, UT, NE, MS Toss-Ups: No idea who will win Tilt: This team has the initiative Lean: Clear advantage Likely: Should win but could lose Solid: All but certain Edit: Polling would add more precision which would change my system. It's always possible to have some idea about who will win and it's possible to call it. So Solid becomes Safe and there's no more toss-ups. VA & NE would be downgraded because Safe is more likely than solid if the candidates weren't terrible. John James isn't terrible and Trump won MI so it's possible he could win. Safe is now "Certain to win" and everything else is the same. WV is close to toss-up if Don doesn't get ballot access but if he does DEMs are a lock so it goes into Tilt D. Kevin Cramer already has the lead and the open SCOTUS seat will not help DEMs so it goes to Tilt R. If I were paying attention this list would be posted as soon as the June 18th ND poll was posted and I could move ND out of toss-up. Safe D: HI, CA, MA, MD, VT, NY, WA, RI, MN, CT, DE, NM, VA, ME Likely D: MN-S, PA, NJ, MI Lean D: OH, MT, WI Tilt D: FL, NV, AZ, WV Tilt R: MO, IN, ND Lean R: TN Likely R: TX, MS-S Safe R: WY, UT, NE, MS Edit 2: Not worth own post but here's a prediction from August 13th with a pretty picture!
In the latest development in american fascism: everyone who voted for Trump in this thread, fuck you. You are culpable in putting children in concentration camps to be abused by psychopaths.
BTW, the fascists are technically correct in that they merely accelerated up a policy implemented by democrats, but that is simply evidence that the democrats should stop appeasing fascists.
June 20th, 2018, 16:02
(This post was last modified: June 20th, 2018, 16:09 by MJW (ya that one).)
(June 19th, 2018, 05:45)Nicolae Carpathia Wrote: In the latest development in american fascism: everyone who voted for Trump in this thread, fuck you. You are culpable in putting children in concentration camps to be abused by psychopaths. Well Trump just folded. I think he did this because of the pressure. It's obvious that the GOP would lose more votes pissing people off than motivating their base. Obama did his best to push immigration in his favor (DACA). I think this just slipped from him because no-one cared at that time. Edit: What ever happened it wasn't appeasement because it doesn't make sense to do that and push DACA.
I'm not sure that "now we're just going to toss the entire family in jail" really counts as "folding".
Also, the "zero tolerance" policy has its origins in the George W. Bush administration, I believe. (June 20th, 2018, 16:08)Bobchillingworth Wrote: I'm not sure that "now we're just going to toss the entire family in jail" really counts as "folding". Is Trump actually going to do that? Well that's really bad. If he doesn't fold or folds more than back DEMs win. If he folds back DEMs win (by making "zero tolerance" his policy; not GWB). I'm guessing that Obama pushed DACA, instead of cancelling GWB, because that was more favorable because those children have an actual connection to America while these children don't. He didn't do both because that would have looked too partisan and make it all but certain that he would lose. Remember Scalia was alive. |
